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Laurie Goodman and the Amherst Securities Group tries to determine the size and scope of the housing problem:
This article summarizes the size and scope of the housing crisis, making the point that if governmental policy does not change, one borrower out of every 5 is in danger of losing his/her home. A crisis of this order of magnitude requires both supply and demand side measures. On the supply side, a successful modification is critical. This will require principal reductions to re-equify the borrower. The moral hazard (strategic default) issues must be addressed by first recognizing that this is an economic issue, not a moral one. Second liens must also be addressed. As supply side measures alone are likely to prove insufficient to address a crisis of this size, we discuss demand side measures to increase the buyer base.
The full report, if you can track it down, is here and worth reading.
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Source:
The Housing Crisis—Sizing the Problem, Proposing Solutions
Amherst Mortgage Insight, October 1, 2010
http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101006_amherst.html
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