The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

In what can be considered dated news especially considering the late Sept new round of foreclosure delays, the Aug S&P/CS 20 city home price index fell .28% m/o/m seasonally adjusted vs expectations of -.20% while the y/o/y gain of 1.7% was below the estimate of 2.1%. Of the 20 cities, 8 saw y/o/y gains while Las Vegas again led the declines. On a m/o/m basis, only New York saw a SA gain, albeit modestly of .01%. The overall S&P/CS price level is now 6.7% above the low in April ’09 but still 28% below the record high in July ’06. The late Sept foreclosure halts will distort housing prices into year end as the temporary moratorium can lift home prices in the short term as less supply is put onto the market but would quickly reverse once the supply overhang is inevitably unleashed when things get squared up on the foreclosure side. The faster the foreclosure process, the faster we get to a bottom and the faster our economy can recover.