Positives

1) Private sector job gains about line with expectations
2) Initial Claims fall below 450k
3) Aug Pending Home Sales better than expected
4) ISM services rise more than estimated but components mixed
5) Purchase apps at 5 mo high
6) For asset prices at least, BoJ will buy anything, Bernanke hints at more QE
7) For sound money, BoE and ECB stay put
8) Strong Australia jobs #
9) Shanghai index at 5 mo high
10) China likes Greek debt, Greek 10 yr below 10% for 1st time since June

Negatives

1) QE consequence, CRB index at 2 yr high, message to Fed: Be Very Careful What You Wish For
2) $ index lowest since Jan, Brazil/South Korea take step toward capital controls
3) Fitch downgrades Ireland credit rating
4) Sept private Payroll gain modest, U6 at 17.1%, matches 9 mo high
5) Refi’s fall to 8 week low
6) ABC confidence at 8 week low
7) Sept Canada jobs # falls

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

18 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events”

  1. curbyourrisk says:

    1) Those are some pretty poor expectations….

    [BR: These are not “expectations,” they are a wrap up of the week’s key data points]

    2) We can’t keep losing jobs at this rate for ever..eventually we need to slow down. HEY, how many people fell of the back end??? How many new UN-employable people now going unaccoutned for?
    3)I’ll give you that one, but its still not enough to label it a recovery…Let’s see what September and on bring with this foreclusure mess (mortgagegate)
    4) 1 month does not make a trend. back logs are contracting……is that really growth???? It is not even slower growth…its contraction…. Thats a negative.
    5) ignoring this one for now. I am chosing to ignore certain data that does not fit in my arguement. It works well for Global warning loons and our government, so taking advantage of that ability here.
    6) And how does this solbve anything??? QE is has an immeidate impact of inflation, whicht he American people cannot afford at the moment. LONGER term it is extremely DEFLATIONARY…just go ask Japan.
    7)They stay put, because NO ONE REALLY KNOWS WHAT TO DO RIGHT NOW. They are all waiting for BEN to start QE2. Since he is getting as much punch out of threatening it (see the market ramp)…maybe he just will hold off oni t for a while.
    8)Personally, being her ein America, I have a hard enough time worrying about jobs here. Not really concerned about the Aussies right now… They are very hard workers and always seem to land on their feet.
    9) BUBBLE BUBLE TOIL AND TROUBLE…… Can’t wiat til reality catches up with this one. The MOTHER of all collapses on the horizon.
    10)In return for the money that China will be giving them, they have to buy Chinese manufactured rail cars. Is that really a deal?????/ To me it shows, China now having a hard time selling all the things they are making.

  2. VennData says:

    Curb,

    Lemme guess, you’ve been in cash since 2008 election when that Socialist… oh sorry, they don’t use that term anymore… it’s “anti-business.”

  3. ACS says:

    Around here the event of the week was the renewal notice for health insurance. A mere increase of 44% for the same (high deductible) coverage and a 40% hike in the monthly administrative fee. And this is from a cooperative designed to increase insurer competition!

  4. dimm says:

    curbyourrisk
    I think I can help with 5)

    FHA Fees Increase October 4th
    Starting Oct 4th with all FHA Case Numbers ordered, borrowers will be subject to new FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums. The changes are as follows:
    * Up Front MIP will decrease from 2.25% to 1%
    * Annual MIP will increase from .50/.55 to .85/.90 for terms greater than 15 yrs
    * FHA will make the premium fee changes on all new case numbers effective October 4, 2010.
    The net result of WILL increase the buyers monthly payment and the over-all cost of their mortgage. In order to avoid the Annual MIP increase, your buyers will need an FHA case number assigned prior to
    October 4th.

  5. curbyourrisk says:

    The comments next week will be when HR3038 secretly becomes law….. Obama ain’t pocketing anything…… It will happen. The banks are gonna demand it.

  6. Joe Friday says:

    Followup to BR’s previous post about gridlock = Bad:

    HUDSON: Now talk about the outcome and how the market has behaved because there is lots of talk clearly about how gridlock can be good for investors. But you’ve looked back and when Congress and the White House are in the same party, average returns better than 7.5 percent. When there is a difference, almost 7 percent. But when the two houses of Congress are held by both parties which is the likeliest scenario this fall, only an average gain of 2 percent.

    STOVALL: Exactly. Going back to 1900, the data show that you really don’t want gridlock. It might be good for bonds but it’s not good for stocks and it’s primarily because of the uncertainty. Nobody really knows what is going to be emanating from Congress because Congress won’t be able to be in agreement.

    NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT:
    http://www.pbs.org/nbr/site/onair/transcripts/sam_stovall_with_quarterly_outlook_100930/

  7. Lariat1 says:

    Re ASC: Shopping my business health ins., have til next Friday to find something comparable to what I have now at $1100.00 a month. Mine for 2 adults one child jumps to $1700.00 a month Nov. 1st. I just plain refuse to pay that amount. I called the pediatrician to see what plans they accept and they told me to get the kid on Child Plus (New York). They said most of their patients are using it. Hey I’m game, my fed, state and county taxes have been paying into it all along. It’s socialized medicine and will cost me at the most 60.00 a month. Yea right, I’m going to refuse that and pay 700.00 more a month for good old capitalism. Rah Rah.

  8. Myr says:

    How about the extreme bullish sentiment in the latest AAII survey?

  9. ACS says:

    Lariat get it while it lasts. I had to double my deductible to keep the increase to low double digits. Insane!

  10. Petey Wheatstraw says:

    curbyourrisk Says:

    The comments next week will be when HR3038 secretly becomes law….. Obama ain’t pocketing anything…… It will happen. The banks are gonna demand it.
    ______________

    Not only did he veto it, he sent it back to Congress with a memo:

    The White House

    Office of the Press Secretary

    For Immediate Release October 08, 2010
    Presidential Memorandum–H.R. 3808

    It is necessary to have further deliberations about the possible unintended impact of H.R. 3808, the “Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act of 2010,” on consumer protections, including those for mortgages, before the bill can be finalized. Accordingly, I am withholding my approval of this bill. (The Pocket Veto Case, 279 U.S. 655 (1929)).

    The authors of this bill no doubt had the best intentions in mind when trying to remove impediments to interstate commerce. My Administration will work with them and other leaders in Congress to explore the best ways to achieve this goal going forward.

    To leave no doubt that the bill is being vetoed, in addition to withholding my signature, I am returning H.R. 3808 to the Clerk of the House of Representatives, along with this Memorandum of Disapproval.

    BARACK OBAMA

    THE WHITE HOUSE,
    October 8, 2010.

    Got any stock picks?

  11. call me ahab says:

    times are good-

    http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/10/job-losses-and-preliminary-benchmark.html

    but hey- invest in stocks-

    the Fed has your back

  12. call me ahab says:

    . . .and looking at that chart-

    ask yourself- are these good times?

  13. call me ahab says:

    and keep in mind-

    the Fed doesn’t care whether you are employed (one of their mandates)- but are more concerned to provide a bid under assets-

    think about it- their only goal right now is to keep assets from falling- and desperately try to create inflation- to offset deflationary pressures-

    ask yourself- who does that really benefit?

  14. Ignore liquidity as a short term factor at your own risk.

    Longer term, on Bloomberg, I forecast Dow 10,000 in 2015.

    These two are not mutually exclusive . . .

  15. rktbrkr says:

    40 states to investigate mortgage fraud.

    I’m still shocked by the blatant sellout of Congress to the banks with the notary law. The incumbents must have been promised retirement bonuses by the banking industry

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/10/40-state-attorneys-general-to.html

  16. willid3 says:

    i am sure it was a democrat that proposed that notary law. oh wait. it wasn’t it was a Republican. from Alaska. must have thought that was going to be a new way to earn money. Alaska notaries selling cross state lines