Positives

1) Sept Retail Sales follow good Aug

2) CPI report benign

3) Corporate earnings off to good start, GOOG rocks

4) Oct NY Fed survey much better than expected

5) Refi’s jump 21% in response to new low in mortgage rates

6) Greek debt continues to rally

7) China bank loans rise more than expected and Shanghai index rallies to near 6 mo high

Negatives

1) Treasury auctions mediocre, market sloppy all week, QE2 priced in

2) CRB closes up for 8th straight week and makes CPI report backward looking

3) Inflation expectations in 10 yr TIPS rise to highest since May

4) Mortgage put back concerns shake banks, BoA CDS higher by 50 bps on week to most since July ’09, foreclosure delays create mess

5) Trade Deficit worse than expected, 2nd highest since late ’08

6) $ index down for 7 out of 8 weeks

7) NFIB small biz optimism index lackluster

8) UoM confidence falls to 3 mo low

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

13 Responses to “Succinct summation of week’s events”

  1. formerlawyer says:

    Negatives 2

    Deficit to top $1 trillion for second year in a row.

    http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/15/news/economy/treasury_fy2010_deficit/index.htm?hpt=T2

  2. VennData says:

    Moronative, one biggie:

    “Seniors Outraged that their Social Security COLA Payments Won’t Increase”

    http://politics.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/john-farrell/2010/10/15/will-tea-party-republicans-blame-dems-for-no-social-security-cola.html

    …but ardently support the just-as-angry Tea Party who want to do across the board spending CUTS.

    I hope the GOP takes both houses. It will be fun to watch all those wise little people wondering what they were thinking at the 2010 election.

  3. ACS says:

    If the government wants to hold the line on SS payments then it should be honest and say so rather than use phoney cost of living data that’s removed from reality. Oh I forgot, we’re dealing with politicians.

  4. ACS says:

    Barry, you missed the outrage of the week:
    Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo settles with SEC for $67.5M

  5. M says:

    Not sure if inflation expectations are good or bad — depends what they are a symptom of I suppose.

    BTW BR: you got a cited in an amusing article here: http://www.observer.com/2010/wall-street/foreclosure-fiasco-and-wall-streets-shrug

  6. Mannwich says:

    @Venn Data: I honestly think the GOP gets one last shot at completely wrecking our country before all hell breaks loose.

    @ACS: That’s a lot of tanning sessions. That man should be in a jail cell with Jeffrey Skilling.

  7. obsvr-1 says:

    @ACS Says 6:41 pm

    Barry, you missed the outrage of the week:
    Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo settles with SEC for $67.5M

    —- Reply

    Worse, settles with SEC does not admit nor deny any wrong doing
    $25M of the settlement will be paid out of escrow and from the company and $20M from BAC — WTF !!!

    BAC shareholders takes the brunt of all the Countrywide disaster.

    Some penalty — he keeps the $139M in insider information sales and stays out of JAIL

    OUTRAGE on steroids …

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Countrywide-CEO-Mozilo-apf-1381976931.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

  8. Thor says:

    BR – you just got a nice plug on Left Right and Center on NPR here in LA.

  9. TakBak04 says:

    @ VennData Says:
    October 15th, 2010 at 5:43 pm

    Moronative, one biggie:

    “Seniors Outraged that their Social Security COLA Payments Won’t Increase”

    ———-

    Please…it’s not good to lump all people as Seniors, Boomers, Milleniums, Hippies, Yuppies…etc.

    There’s such a broad spectrum of views and voting patterns that it really isn’t fair to do this.

    Some person had a sign at one of the “TeaParty Events” calling to “GET GOVERNMENT OUT of MY MEDICARE!”

    You can’t lump all people together into categories …..it’s just too simplistic and only serves a Political Purpose and not a COMMONALITY… The COMMON GOOD… Have we forgotten that?

  10. rootless says:

    As for retail sales and New York manufacturing survey. Since when are we taking noisy statistically estimated month-to-month changes at face value and draw any conclusions from it?

    Those data are based on estimates based on samples and imputation and they are seasonally adjusted. I wonder whether the seasonal adjustment factors are distorted by the strong decrease in the retail sales and the manufacturing index during the same months in year 2008.

    There seems to be quite a divergence between the retail sales data estimated with the method applied by the Census bureau and the data measured by the Consumer Metrics Institute, although latter only measures discretionary consumer goods. The divergence seems to be present in some of the discretionary sub-categories of the retail sales too, though.

    http://www.consumerindexes.com/

  11. mathman says:

    All the “good news” is trumped by the underlying fact that the entire financial system is riddled from top to bottom with fraud:

    http://www.correntewire.com/largest_financial_swindle_world_history

  12. PDS says:

    i would suggest that u revisit #7 BR…..yes I know the positive correlation between China and US stock mkts….but the A share market remains dominated/skewed by retail….there is no breadth or depth to the market….I would also point out that it is still down over 12% YTD…so if you want to use it as a economic barometer for whats going on there…I would say its still giving a bearish signal….

    BTW….you forgot to mention that even after all the stock rally brouhaha….from an asset mix standpoint domestically…bonds are still outperforming stocks YTD…i would add that to negative column

    ~~~

    BR: The weekly succinct summation is written by Peter Boockvar.

  13. PDS says:

    Yes…I noted that BR…but it’s your “cocktail party” and you are the moderator/editor