My favorite chart, via Bill at Calculated Risk:
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Chart courtesy of Calculated Risk
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See also Existing Home Inventory increases 8.4% Year-over-Year
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Money is power, & you ought to be reasonably ambitious to have it." —Russell H. Conwell, Temple Univ, 1877
"It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine" say the French as consumer confidence in May rose to the highest since Nov '10 as they welcome and get excited about new Pres Hollande. Also, the French 10 yr bond yield touched the lowest on record this morning. June consumer confidence in Germany held at 5.7, just .2 pts off the highest since Mar '11. To the euro bond debate which is now taking on greater rhetoric with those with high bond yields wanting them and those with low ones saying no way, ECB member...
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November 23rd, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Looks like a newly confirmed DOWNTREND after the blip up in October to me.
November 23rd, 2010 at 1:19 pm
That CAN”T be your favorite chart, BR. It’s got the orange and red bars next to each other! That’s a brutal faux pas.
November 23rd, 2010 at 1:37 pm
The untold story here is that the entire residential real estate boom of … 1990-2006 … was composed of people moving from a perfectly good house to a “new” house. No value was created, except to the carpenters who got paid to build the new house. But so long as the scam kept paying out and everyone got paid nobody complained or noticed. But the effect was real. Entire cities emptied out. To where? The desert. Why? Well, in part because the Hoover Dam gave people cheap electricity to live in Arizona in the desert and have air conditioning … and water.
From a macro-perspective, the U.S. has been subsidizing a population shift to the southern desert climes and away from the north since Eisenhower. But the infrastructure is incredibly expensive and it has been subsidized by cheap government power via hydro and coal. These externalities are now just assumed to be part of the environment. But they are not. Arizona is still a desert.
November 23rd, 2010 at 2:09 pm
In the previous post the recesion was over. Now the data points from June to present suggest a weakening in the housing sector after a brief recovery. This does not make me feel all warm and fuzzy.
November 23rd, 2010 at 2:16 pm
Chad…if you want feel all warm and fuzzy…drink the kool aid! I hear it’s cherry this month.
November 23rd, 2010 at 2:20 pm
My favorite of the day is the existing destruction of BoA:
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/credit/bank-of-america-mortgage-document-errors-trouble-countrywide/19728402/
and others:
http://vimeo.com/16572306
November 23rd, 2010 at 2:28 pm
Chad: good call. We are to believe that the recovery is now inevitible, and all will be getting better soon.
Unless you hold debt.
There is still a lot of debt that has underlying assets with their values shrinking. Somewhere, someone is trying to find a way to borrow against the value of gold, which will further the bubble, with all the big players out of gold and into something else just as the bubble pops. It’s Amerika, after all.
November 23rd, 2010 at 2:32 pm
Had similar thoughts, Chad. Sure doesn’t look “healthy” to me, but then again I guess reality doesn’t matter anymore as long as the top continue to spend like crazy.
November 23rd, 2010 at 2:34 pm
Why don’t people take into account season affects? Who buys a house in Winter? No one!
Even during the boom sales dropped in Winter. Of course housing sales are going to decrease in the next three months, they do every single year.
November 23rd, 2010 at 3:02 pm
This is my favorite chart! and i rather like the way it goes from Greener Pastures Bars to Red Danger Bars.. Thanks for posting the update!
November 23rd, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Natefield,
the different colors indicate different years.
November 23rd, 2010 at 3:05 pm
From Aug. 25th:
“Is today the right time to go long (until the third week of November)?”
A rhetorical question. Also, BZQ is on its way to Bundalandia*, ótimo!
QID, a buy @ ~12.60? See above.
Asocio as bundas das brasilieras com todas as coisas boas da terra
November 23rd, 2010 at 3:09 pm
“Every mania is therefore an imputed-price mania. It cannot be sustained beyond the ability and willingness of the last marginal buyer to pay an equity-raising price to the last marginal seller.”
Maybe instead importing bags of tainted sodium fluoride from China to destroy our municipal water systems we should import some of them there shiny new ‘marginal buyers’. That’s the ticket*!
*a la porra…
November 23rd, 2010 at 4:58 pm
@Nate: What beaufou said. We ARE taking that into account. Wake the eff up.
November 23rd, 2010 at 5:06 pm
Onward march with the “recovery”……but I guess there are millions of loans (including mine) that aren’t late or in foreclosure.
LPS: Over 4.3 million loans 90+ days or in foreclosure
According to LPS, 9.29 percent of mortgages are delinquent, and another 3.92 are in the foreclosure process for a total of 13.20 percent. It breaks down as:
• 2.72 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 2.24 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2.09 million loans in foreclosure process.
For a total of 7.04 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/11/lps-over-43-million-loans-90-days-or-in_23.html
November 23rd, 2010 at 5:51 pm
4.3 million loans in trouble and banks are still behaving like tough guys.
They have to give loan modifications, have to, there is no getting out of this mess without helping a struggling population.
After all, banks got bailed out and are getting access to zero interest money, I know homeowners signed on for higher interest but they didn’t sign on to living in a mess created by the banks and stagnant wages over two decades.
I am getting more and more disgusted watching neighbors and family worrying sick about mortgage payments while Wall Street is back on its delusional cloud of absurd wealth stolen from the productive masses.
With the paperwork mess, I would encourage people to stop paying their mortgages until they see the original note; which is the only proof they are paying the right person; save the money and hire an attorney to fight so banks have to modify their loans.
And it isn’t a free lunch or welfare as some self centered d-bags would like to have it, QE is free lunch.
November 23rd, 2010 at 6:27 pm
I understand that each bar is a different year.
If sales in November go down (they always go down from October to November, even during the boom), but they don’t go down as much as they normally do from October to November that would be mildly good news, but you cant tell from a chart like this.
We would be able to get more useful information from a chart that was seasonally adjusted.
November 24th, 2010 at 6:23 am
The untold story is the passing of having lax lending laws so everyone can afford a home. Clinton initiated the program and the big brokerage houses ran with it too far. 100% stated income never existed in the early 90s, only 70 to 75% which was fine. Those ridiculous option ARMS with pick a payment were even worse.
~~~
BR: What law are you talking about? Would you care to cite a statute?
Have you ever done any research, or do you just mindlessly repeat talking points? The lax lending was done primarily by non banks not covered by lending laws.
I need to do a post on moron zombies . . .
November 24th, 2010 at 6:33 am
I just looked at the link the eejit above (jumbocali) had in his comment (which I stripped out)
Its to a site that offers “No Doc and Interest Only Payment Options”
What a douche. He is a spammer using wing nut idiocy in an attempt to goose his Google score. (Now Banned)
November 24th, 2010 at 10:57 am
What is striking to me is how much sales were increased in Q4 of 2009 and Q2 of 2010 by government programs. The “natural” sales level may be lower than I thought and therefore the remaining price falls could be worse than the 10-15% that I previously guessed.