NFP = 151k
BLS:
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Since December 2009, nonfarm payroll employment has risen by 874,000
The breakdown:
• 14.8 million people remain unemployed, unchanged from prior month; 9.6% is still the percentage.
• Long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks +) was unchanged at 6.2 million. 41.8% percent of the unemployed have been jobless for 27 weeks or more.
• Involuntary part-time workers fell by 318,000 to 9.2 million.
• Temporary help services increased by 35,000. Temp help has added 451,000 jobs since September 2009.
• Average workweek increased by 0.1 hour in October to 34.3 hours.
• Average hourly earnings of all employees increased by 5 cents to $22.73.
• Revisions were positive: August was revised -57,000 to -1,000; September was revised from -95,000 to -41,000.
Gainers and losers by sector:
-Health care continued to add jobs in October (+24,000)
-Retail trade employment rose by 28,000 (including increases in automobile dealers (+6,000)
-Government employment overall was little changed in October
-Leisure & hospitality was a wash, with job losses in arts, entertainment, and
recreation (-26,000) offset by gains in food services and drinking places employment (+24,000)
-Mining employment trended up (+8,000), while manufacturing lost (-7,000)
All told, a surprisingly strong report . . .
>
Click for ginormous chart
Chart via Calculated Risk
>
Source:
Employment Situation Summary
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Labor Force Statistics, November 5, 2010
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Tweet
Facebook
Reddit
Digg this!
November 5th, 2010 at 9:48 am
Wow…The Republicans have been in power for just 3 days and they already created 151k jobs! Vote GOP!
Brought to you by Fox News.
November 5th, 2010 at 9:52 am
No need for QE2 then?
LOL f411. Don’t put it past them to make that claim….and for the Tea-tard kool aide drinkers to believe it.
November 5th, 2010 at 9:57 am
I don’t know if the BLS report is so strong:
“Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 64.5 percent, and
the employment-population ratio, at 58.3 percent, edged DOWN over the
month. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (some-
times referred to as involuntary part-time workers) FELL by 318,000
over the month to 9.2 million, partially offsetting large increases in
the prior 2 months. These individuals were working part time because
their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a
full-time job. (See table A-8.)”
Good report I guess, but I still see some clouds among the silver linings.
November 5th, 2010 at 10:01 am
Quick question – how many of these “jobs” actually pay a real, live salary?
November 5th, 2010 at 10:06 am
[...] all seriousness, I am not (yet) willing to bet, based on a single recent data point, that the employment situation has turned [...]
November 5th, 2010 at 10:11 am
This is not a good report. Most of the jobs are either temporary or low paying service jobs.
November 5th, 2010 at 10:16 am
Personally, I know more than a few people that are trying to get start ups off the ground but aren’t taking any salaries. Do these count as “jobs”?
November 5th, 2010 at 10:31 am
The most notable thing for each prior recession is the symmetrical shape of each unemployment rise and fall. If you ignore the census blip, the current one is forming the same appearance. The current NFP numbers support this early observation. While I’m no believer in the power of magic charts, I am a big believer in repeating patterns that have fundamental explanations. One or two more confirmation NFP reports and I would suggest a recovery slope is upon us.
November 5th, 2010 at 10:41 am
That’s all we have to show for QE1 and $700B Stimulus?
November 5th, 2010 at 10:43 am
@ Mannwich: that is the key stat in all of this. Real wages aren’t going anywhere, so if these jobs were paying anything close to a living wage, then real wages would trend upward, I would think. These “jobs” I presume, are the same type that the voters in Alabama were being sold this past Tuesday, by the big highway work firms in this state. In exchange for our approval of Amendment 3, there would be so many jobs produced that the fruit of the loom would runneth over. BS. Alabamians aren’t smart people, but I think we’re getting better at calling a spade a spade. This Amendment was about special interests getting to clean money out of the states Oil and gas royalty fund, set up years ago, for the by people, by the people. And because those people are now tapped out, in debt up to their eyeballs, and not spending, deep pockets need to get money wherever they can. If it’s from public coffers, it wouldn’t be the first time. Any hiring that’s going on is of lower pay quality, or jobs that formerly paid a lot more. This might not be a bad thing in and of itself; perhaps those jobs were overpaid in the past. But this is a direct shot at the standard of living in this country, and in a time when other costs, some which are NOT discretionary, are rising.
And you’re got the Fed working against you by trying to increase prices and prop up prices, while jobs that paid enough for those prices, are gone.
November 5th, 2010 at 10:46 am
Also, by rough extrapolation, can one assume that the trend of this graph gets us back to pre-recession employment levels around 65 months from onset of recession? That would be sometime in 2013? Wow.
November 5th, 2010 at 10:47 am
rip Says:
November 5th, 2010 at 10:41 am
That’s all we have to show for QE1 and $700B Stimulus?
reply:
———
Less than that. Remember, about 1/2 of these amounts went to either fund 2009 wall street bonus payments or are just sitting in the banks as useless reserves. The rest was just a scattershot effect. From a different perspective, things look like they’re turning partly because of actual personal effort. Perhaps, if the Fed accompanied QE2 with persuasive bank mamagement coercion and frees up lendable money, then this chart will represent the bottom for sure.
November 5th, 2010 at 10:57 am
I just feel better about the future of this country now that the GOP will balance the budget. if they would just adopt some of the budgetary smoke and mirrors of the Bush administration which Obama got rid of, they can cut it in half.
Cheers from the Tea Party: ” Smoke and Mirrors! …Smoke and Mirrors! …Smoke and Mirrors!”
November 5th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Love him or hate him David Rosenberg has a great read on the labour markets…..
From todays Breakfast with Dave:
Well, that was quite the shocker. Nonfarm payrolls managed to dramatically exceed expectations and rung up a total of 151,000 jobs in October — more than double consensus estimates. And, the prior two months were revised higher by a total of 110,000. The workweek edged back up to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours in September and along with the moderate increase in wages, average weekly earnings, a proxy for work-based personal income, jumped 0.5% MoM. This more than recouped the 0.2% decline the month before and was a welcome relief for a household sector that will be confronting sharply rising gas prices and grocery bills ahead.
The headline was undoubtedly strong, as were some of the details, but we want to warn readers that this was not a universally solid report. First, within the nonfarm report itself, virtually all the gains were in three sectors — health/education, retail trade and waste/administrative services. Goods-producing employment barely rose. The diffusion index for private payrolls dipped in October, to 55.0 from 55.6, which is a four-month low, and for manufacturing, the diffusion index fell to 42.1 from 54.3, which is the lowest since December 2009. So while there was depth to the report, in terms of magnitude, there was not a whole lot of breadth to it. Many sectors still reported job declines last month, including manufacturing, commercial and residential construction, transportation, information, financial and government. As I said, not a universally strong report, notwithstanding the solid headline results.
Moreover, the Household Survey showed a 330,000 decline in October, and again, full-time jobs declined, as they have for each of the past five months for a cumulative plunge of 1.1 million. The employment-to-population rate — the share of the population that is working — fell to 58.3% from 58.5%, a 10-month low. Many labour market experts actually consider this to be the most accurate barometer of the health in the labour market (though they are clearly not day traders, judging from the immediate reaction in the bond and stock pits). And many of the other measures of the unemployment rate edged up, with the broad U6 index staying stubbornly high at 17%. It will be very difficult to build any sustained wage pressure with this degree of slack overhanging the labour market. While the number of people working part-time for economic reasons slid 318,000, this has to be viewed in the context of the near-one million bulge in the prior two months. Meanwhile, those folks who have been unemployed and looking for work fruitlessly for at least six months jumped 1.54%, or 83k, last month — the first increase since last May — and the median and mean duration of unemployment both rose as well (to 21.2 weeks from 20.4; and to 33.9 weeks from 33.3, respectively).Bottom line: Nice headline on U.S. employment, and the income figure too. But the Household survey did not offer ratification and the problem of excess labour supply has clearly not gone away. We finished off October with a level of jobless claims (455k) that is consistent with stagnant job growth, so do not be surprised to see some giveback in payrolls when the November data roll around next month.
Retail hiring for the holiday season? Most likely…..
More then these reports just look at the people you deal in your daily life…. My peapod guys is like 25y/o and college educated.
The guy selling me bagels at my local crappy bagel chain is 35, white, well spoken ect (not going for racial overtones but I think you get what I mean) and he was not the manager.
The big shock to the labor markets will come in Q4/Q1/11 as Fortune 500 companies use deep layoffs to beat estimates… Ask anyone who works for a large public company… layoffs are coming.
November 5th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
“only low wage jobs”….”but real wages not improving”
huh ????
Excuse me fine sirs… but have we seen any other types of wages (falling) or jobs (service) since China entered the major leagues one and half decades ago?
at this rate Obama’s “failed stimulus ” (not saying it is to blame/thank) will have seen a million jobs in his second year. Serious question, when was the last time that happened?
November 5th, 2010 at 4:13 pm
No bad??? What about the labor participation rate… it keeps dropping! Now some maybe legitimate, like 62+ year olds opting for SS while they can or a 2nd earner staying home.
But to go from 64% to 59% is literally millions of workers… its easier to show unemployment is not bad when you just stop counting the unemployed.
Can some one tell me the methodology for counting unemployment in the great depression? I am sure today’s measure is apples to oranges.