The Monster

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 19th, 2010, 10:00AM

The following is an excerpt from Michael W. Hudson’s The Monster: How a Gang of Predatory Lenders and Wall Street Bankers Fleeced America–and Spawned a Global Crisis

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Introduction: Bait and Switch

A few weeks after he started working at Ameriquest Mortgage, Mark Glover looked up from his cubicle and saw a coworker do something odd. The guy stood at his desk on the twenty-third floor of downtown Los Angeles’s Union Bank Building. He placed two sheets of paper against the window. Then he used the light streaming through the window to trace something from one piece of paper to another. Somebody’s signature.

Glover was new to the mortgage business. He was twenty-nine and hadn’t held a steady job in years. But he wasn’t stupid. He knew about financial sleight of hand—at that time, he had a check-fraud charge hanging over his head in the L.A. courthouse a few blocks away. Watching his coworker, Glover’s first thought was: How can I get away with that? As a loan officer at Ameriquest, Glover worked on commission. He knew the only way to earn the six-figure income Ameriquest had promised him was to come up with tricks for pushing deals through the mortgage-financing pipeline that began with Ameriquest and extended through Wall Street’s most respected investment houses.

Glover and the other twentysomethings who filled the sales force at the downtown L.A. branch worked the phones hour after hour, calling strangers and trying to talk them into refinancing their homes with high-priced “subprime” mortgages. It was 2003, subprime was on the rise, and Ameriquest was leading the way. The company’s owner, Roland Arnall, had in many ways been the founding father of subprime, the business of lending money to home owners with modest incomes or blemished credit histories. He had pioneered this risky segment of the mortgage market amid the wreckage of the savings and loan disaster and helped transform his company’s headquarters, Orange County, California, into the capital of the subprime industry. Now, with the housing market booming and Wall Street clamoring to invest in subprime, Ameriquest was growing with startling velocity.

Up and down the line, from loan officers to regional managers and vice presidents, Ameriquest’s employees scrambled at the end of each month to push through as many loans as possible, to pad their monthly production numbers, boost their commissions, and meet Roland Arnall’s expectations. Arnall was a man “obsessed with loan volume,” former aides recalled, a mortgage entrepreneur who believed “volume solved all problems.” Whenever an underling suggested a goal for loan production over a particular time span, Arnall’s favorite reply was: “We can do twice that.” Close to midnight Pacific time on the last business day of each month, the phone would ring at Arnall’s home in Los Angeles’s exclusive Holmby Hills neighborhood, a $30 million estate that once had been home to Sonny and Cher.On the other end of the telephone line, a vice president in Orange County would report the month’s production numbers for his lending empire. Even as the totals grew to $3 billion or $6 billion or $7 billion a month—figures never before imagined in the subprime business—Arnall wasn’t satisfied. He wanted more. “He would just try to make you stretch beyond what you thought possible,” one former Ameriquest executive recalled. “Whatever you did, no matter how good you did, it wasn’t good enough.”

Inside Glover’s branch, loan officers kept up with the demand to produce by guzzling Red Bull energy drinks, a favorite caffeine pick-me-up for hardworking salesmen throughout the mortgage industry. Government investigators would later joke that they could gauge how dirty a home-loan location was by the number of empty Red Bull cans in the Dumpster out back. Some of the crew in the L.A. branch, Glover said, also relied on cocaine to keep themselves going, snorting lines in washrooms and, on occasion, in their cubicles.

The wayward behavior didn’t stop with drugs. Glover learned that his colleague’s art work wasn’t a matter of saving a borrower the hassle of coming in to supply a missed signature. The guy was forging borrowers’ signatures on government-required disclosure forms, the ones that were supposed to help consumers understand how much cash they’d be getting out of the loan and how much they’d be paying in interest and fees. Ameriquest’s deals were so overpriced and loaded with nasty surprises that getting customers to sign often required an elaborate web of psychological ploys, outright lies, and falsified papers. “Every closing that we had really was a bait and switch,” a loan officer who worked for Ameriquest in Tampa, Florida, recalled. ” ‘Cause you could never get them to the table if you were honest.” At companywide gatherings, Ameriquest’s managers and sales reps loosened up with free alcohol and swapped tips for fooling borrowers and cooking up phony paperwork. What if a customer insisted he wanted a fixed-rate loan, but you could make more money by selling him an adjustable-rate one? No problem. Many Ameriquest salespeople learned to position a few fixed-rate loan documents at the top of the stack of paperwork to be signed by the borrower. They buried the real documents—the ones indicating the loan had an adjustable rate that would rocket upward in two or three years—near the bottom of the pile. Then, after the borrower had flipped from signature line to signature line, scribbling his consent across the entire stack, and gone home, it was easy enough to peel the fixed-rate documents off the top and throw them in the trash.

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Mortgage Origination, Assignment, and Securitization Process

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 19th, 2010, 9:46AM

I hate when I do this: I grabbed this killer chart from somewhere — it looks like a Fed research paper — then I promptly misplace the PDF.

Anyway, here is a closer look at the entire loan to RMBS process:
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Mortgage Origination, Assignment, and Securitization Process

Bernanke/China/Ireland

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By Peter Boockvar - November 19th, 2010, 9:28AM

Bernanke is reiterating his goal with his new round of asset purchases and that to keep LT interest rates low. He talked about trade imbalances and emerging market dependence on export growth and thus low FX rates and implicitly pointed his finger at China over this. Of course the critique back from China towards the Fed is creating $2.3T out of thin air on top of short rates being basically zero is a grand manipulation of one’s currency. Bernanke also humanized the intent of the Fed by pointing out “on its current economic trajectory, the US runs the risk of millions of workers unemployed or underemployed for many years…As a society, we should find that outcome unacceptable.” I believe we can all agree on that, the issue however is how best to cure it. Rely on the price fixing of interest rates and printing of money or have faith in the wonders of capitalism and its ability to regenerate if the economic cycle is left alone.

After their market close, China again raised its reserve requirement for banks by 50 bps. This comes after Hong Kong announced the hike in down payment requirements for the purchases of homes above certain price levels. Hong Kong also initiated a tax on homes sold before the elapse of 6 months of ownership. Irish bonds are trading better for a 2nd day as the market has come to the realization that only the terms and amount of a EU/IMF deal is what’s left to decide.

Bernanke/China/Ireland

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By Peter Boockvar - November 19th, 2010, 8:59AM

Bernanke is reiterating his goal with his new round of asset purchases and that to keep long term interest rates low. He talked about trade imbalances and emerging market dependence on export growth and thus low FX rates and implicitly pointed his finger at China over this. Of course the critique back from China towards the Fed is creating $2.3T out of thin air on top of short rates being basically zero is a grand manipulation of one’s currency. Bernanke also humanized the intent of the Fed by pointing out “on its current economic trajectory, the US runs the risk of millions of workers unemployed or underemployed for many years…As a society, we should find that outcome unacceptable.” I believe we can all agree on that, the issue however is how best to cure it. Rely on the price fixing of interest rates and printing of money or have faith in the wonders of capitalism and its ability to regenerate if the economic cycle is left alone.

After their market close, China again raised its reserve requirement for banks by 50 bps. This comes after Hong Kong announced the hike in down payment requirements for the purchases of homes above certain price levels. Hong Kong also initiated a tax on homes sold before the elapse of 6 months of ownership. Irish bonds are trading better for a 2nd day as the market has come to the realization that only the terms and amount of a EU/IMF deal is what’s left to decide.

Q3 Earnings in the Books

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By Guest Author - November 19th, 2010, 8:00AM

With 96% of S&P 500 companies having reported for Q3 2010, the COTD provides some long-term perspective as to current earnings.

By focusing on 12-month, S&P 500 earnings 9as reported), the chart illustrates how earnings plummeted 92% from its Q3 2007 peak to Q1 2009 low. This brought inflation-adjusted earnings to near Great Depression lows.

Ahhh, how times have changed: Since its Q1 2009 low, S&P 500 earnings have surged 900%. They are now at peak dot-com bubble levels. The only time earnings have been higher than current levels for a 29-month stretch that occurred at the tail end of the credit bubble.

GM: The Most Successful Bailout Bankruptcy

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 19th, 2010, 7:57AM

I have a quote in this Bloomberg article, but the more important stuff is further down in the article.

Excerpt:

“General Motors Co.’s initial public offering showed that while U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration may lose billions on the auto-industry bailout, the national budget and economy might be better off for it.

The U.S. sold almost half of its stake in the nation’s largest automaker for $33 a share — about $10 less than it needs to break even. The remaining shares will need to sell for about $20 higher to make up the difference. GM opened at $35 and stayed within $1.11 of that price all day. Selling the remaining shares at that price would produce a loss of about $9 billion.

That may go down as a bargain. The U.S. would have lost $28.6 billion in spending on social services and missing tax revenue if not for the bailout of GM, its former lending arm and Chrysler Group LLC, according to a study released Nov. 17 by the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

“GM ends up an economic contributor to the U.S. economy,” said Barry Ritholtz, author of “Bailout Nation” and chief executive officer of New York investment research firm FusionIQ. “It’s manufacturing products, it’s creating jobs, it’s buying wholesale parts, it’s doing what an industrial company is supposed to do.”

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Ok, that’s my quote — and please keep in mind, it was made in the context of “We should have done this to the banks, too.”

But to me, the really interesting aspect is who else gets paid back from the IPO:

“The government-sponsored bankruptcy reduced GM’s obligations and helped it become profitable in a below-average U.S. auto market. Before entering bankruptcy on June 1, 2009, GM had $54.4 billion in debt and owed an additional $20 billion to a retiree health-care trust managed by the United Auto Workers. GM had $88 billion in losses from the end of 2004 until going into bankruptcy.

GM now owes $15.6 billion in debt and preferred stock and $9.4 billion in underfunded retiree obligations. The company has made $4.77 billion in the first three quarters of this year. The old General Motors Corp. hadn’t made so much in the first nine months of a year since 1999 when it earned $5.75 billion.”

And, there is this from another Bloomie article:

“Creditors of General Motors Co.’s bankrupt predecessor, who will likely get about $5 billion from the new automaker’s $20 billion initial public offering, might be able to buy millions more new shares for as little as a third of yesterday’s price.

GM’s bankrupt estate was issued 150 million shares, or 10 percent of stock in the new company, to help pay off creditors. At yesterday’s closing price of $34.19, that stock is worth about $5.1 billion.

So-called Old GM has warrants that entitle it to buy about 273 million shares at between $10 and about $18 each, according to the company’s Nov. 17 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”

Fascinating stuff . . .

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Note: We do not have any position in GM stock or debt . . .

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Previously:
Too Bad Banks Missed Out On the GM Treatment (November 18th, 2010)

Chapter 11: IN RE GENERAL MOTORS CORP (November 19th, 2010)

Source:
GM’s Bailout Losses Worthwhile for Obama as IPO Shrinks Cost
David Welch and Craig Trudell
Bloomberg, Nov. 19 2010  
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alEjJD95x03o

Old GM Creditors Get $5 Billion From IPO, More If Shares Rise
Tiffany Kary and Linda Sandler
Bloomberg, Nov. 19 2010  
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPjMQ6v9g9dM

In re: Chapter 11: GENERAL MOTORS CORP

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 19th, 2010, 5:00AM

GM Chapter 11

Is GM Fixed? How Will GM Do Over Time?

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 18th, 2010, 10:51PM

I had an interesting conversation with a hedge fund manager on the way home tonight — he bet me (an expensive dinner) that 5 years from now, GM is back int he need of some reorganization.

His view: GM is not as clean as it appears, the disclosures on the book (prospectus) note that the “We have determined that our disclosure controls and procedures and our internal control over financial reporting are currently not effective. The lack of effective internal controls could materially adversely affect our financial condition and ability to carry out our business plan.”

And, he argues, the Fed has to raise rates eventually — ending the cheap financing that helps GM;Lastly, the company is not strong enough to survive the next recession.

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I took the bet — 5 years hence, GM should still be here surviving.

How would you have bet ?

Fast Money Appearance (11/18/10)

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 18th, 2010, 10:45PM

Here are my two segments on Fast Money tonite:

I show up at the 11:30 mark

Street Fight: Are rate hikes good for stocks?

Media Appearance: CNBC’s Fast Money (11/18/10)

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 18th, 2010, 4:15PM

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Tonite I will be on Fast Money on CNBC at 5:00pm discussing GM IPO, Ford, and Banks.

Also up for conversation: Too Bad Banks Missed Out On the GM Treatment

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UPDATE: Videos posted here

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