New Elementary Particle Discovered (maybe)

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 14th, 2010, 8:33PM

Physics: Where we learn that the possible discovery of a fourth neutrino could help explain dark matter.

Dope:

“Physicists working with a Fermilab neutrino experiment may have found a new elementary particle whose behavior breaks the known laws of physics. If correct, their results poke holes in the accepted Standard Model of particles and forces, and raise some interesting questions for the Large Hadron Collider and Tevatron experiments. The new particle could even explain the existence of dark matter.

Working with Fermilab’s MiniBooNE experiment — the first part of the larger planned Booster Neutrino Experiment — physicists found evidence for a fourth flavor of neutrino, according to a new paper published in Physical Review Letters. This means there could be another particle we didn’t know about, and that it behaves in a way physicists didn’t expect.

-Popular Science

Laws of Physics were made to be broken! (More Sciencey stuff after the jump)

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FDIC Bank Failures

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 14th, 2010, 6:00PM

Our weekly look at bank failures, courtesy of The Chart Store:

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click for larger charts

Previously: FDIC Bank Failures

Deficit Problems? You Fix It!

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 14th, 2010, 12:30PM

David Leonhardt gives us this interesting interactive NYT graphic (and article) showing the deficit reduction options. They give you a worksheet and various options to reduce the deficits:

Here is how I “solved” the shortfall — 61% of the fix are spending cuts, 39% of it was more taxes:

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Budget Puzzle: You Fix the Budget


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Try it yourself!

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click for ginormous graphic (PDF here)

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Of course, the discussion as to why we should be fixing the deficit in a mediocre recovery is not broached . . .

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Source:
O.K., You Fix the Budget
DAVID LEONHARD
NYT, November 13, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/14/weekinreview/14leonhardt.html

Robosigner Deposition

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 14th, 2010, 10:07AM

Be sure to check out the MERS RoboSigning deposition of Crystal Moore here:

Video deposition of robosigner Crystal Moore of Nationwide Title Clearing

It is quite fascinating . . . there are numerous other video depositions of robosigners (Dhurata Doko, Bryan Bly, etc.) posted by the Forrest law firm.

Crystal Moore Deposition (RoboSigning)

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 14th, 2010, 10:03AM

Part 1: Video deposition of alleged robosigner Crystal Moore of Nationwide Title Clearing. Deposition taken by attorney Christopher Forrest of The Forrest Law Firm in Pinellas County, Florida, Nov. 4, 2010.

Part II

Part III

Part IV

Next Steps in Financial Regulatory Reform

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By Global Macro Monitor - November 14th, 2010, 6:00AM

Next Steps in Financial Regulatory Reform

Governor Daniel K. Tarullo
At the George Washington University Center for Law, Economics, and Finance Conference on the Dodd-Frank Act, Washington, D.C.
November 12, 2010

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Thank you very much for your invitation to speak at this second annual symposium on financial regulatory reform. Before addressing that topic, I want to say a word about the mortgage foreclosure documentation imbroglio, the latest chapter in the recent sad history of mortgage finance in this country.

The Need to Increase Mortgage Modifications
As you know, inquiries into the extent of, and culpability for, these problems are currently being conducted by banking regulators, other federal agencies, and state attorneys general. Regardless of the findings that emerge, and the steps that servicers and others may take to correct their mistakes, this episode has again drawn attention to what can only be described as a perverse set of incentives for homeowners with underwater mortgages. Homeowners who try to get a modification of the terms of their mortgages are all too frequently subject to delay and disappointment. On the other hand, those who simply stop paying their mortgages have found that they can often stay in their homes for a year or more, rent free, before the foreclosure process moves ahead.

This simply is not a good outcome from any broad perspective–not for the revival of housing markets, not for the banks and investors that hold the delinquent mortgages, and in the longer run, not even for the homeowners themselves, who will ultimately have to move out, taking with them a dark cloud over their creditworthiness.

Several possible explanations have been suggested for this untoward state of affairs–the lack of servicer capacity to execute modifications, purported financial incentives for servicers to foreclose rather than modify, what until recently appeared to be easier execution of foreclosures relative to modifications, limits on the authority of securitization trustees, and conflicts between primary and secondary lien holders. Whatever the merits and relative weights of these various explanations, the social costs of this situation are huge. It just cannot be the case that foreclosure is preferable to modification–including reductions of principal–for a significant proportion of mortgages where the deadweight costs of foreclosure, including a distressed sale discount, are so high. While some banks and other industry participants have stepped forward to increase the rate of modifications relative to foreclosures, many have not done enough. I would hope that both servicers and ultimate holders of the mortgages will take this occasion not just to correct documentation flaws and to contest who should bear the losses of mortgages gone bad, but to invigorate the modification process.

Next Steps Down the Reform Road
I note that while last year’s conference was called “Regulatory Reform at the Crossroads,” this year’s event is entitled “The Dodd-Frank Act and the Road Ahead for Financial Regulatory Reform.” The metaphor of a long road ahead following key decisions in Dodd-Frank is an apt one for the Federal Reserve and other regulatory agencies that will, over the next 15 to 20 months, complete implementation of that bill through scores of regulations. The metaphor also applies to elaboration and domestic implementation of the framework for Basel III that was agreed to internationally in September.

Though we may no longer face a major crossroads, the federal banking agencies will certainly encounter numerous forks in the road we are travelling. Choices will be presented during implementation of certain Dodd-Frank provisions that set a general direction for change, but do not mandate a precise route. Others will be encountered as we continue the Basel III exercise, to which I will return in a moment. Still other choices will doubtless be required as all the member agencies of the new Financial Stability Oversight Council evaluate and, potentially, respond to developments in financial markets. Finally, at least one big crossroad still lies ahead–a decision on the future of the government-sponsored housing finance agencies.

We are, of course, in the middle of the Dodd-Frank implementation process. Thus, while I recognize there is enormous interest in where the Federal Reserve and other rule-writing agencies may be headed, I cannot say much about the substance of the regulations that will eventually be proposed and adopted. Indeed, I think it would be inconsistent with the very purpose of administrative law requirements for me to come to my own conclusions, much less opine publicly on them, before we have made our proposals and evaluated all the comments.

What I can say is that, in implementing Dodd-Frank, the Board of Governors will be guided by the same norms of statutory construction that a court would apply. Most importantly, where Congressional intentions are clear from the language of the statute, we must faithfully execute those intentions. Of course, there are a good many provisions that do not admit of a single interpretation, and the implementation of those provisions will require the exercise of discretion by the Federal Reserve or other regulatory agencies.

I can also say that we are following a transparent and inclusive process that goes well beyond the classic notice and comment requirements for agencies adopting regulations. As to transparency: At the Federal Reserve, we are entering into the public record a summary of all communications with non-government groups or individuals regarding matters subject to a potential or proposed rulemaking under Dodd-Frank. As to inclusiveness: We have joined with the other banking agencies in sponsoring a series of joint forums to solicit views from industry, academics, and others on some key issues relevant to Dodd-Frank implementation. We are also hearing views on regulatory implementation at meetings that cover a broad range of topics, such as at our last Consumer Advisory Council session.

Reforming Minimum Capital Requirements
Although they had long used bank capital ratios as a supervisory tool, U.S. bank regulators did not impose explicit minimum capital requirements until the 1980s. The proximate reason for this change was regulatory concern over the decline in capital ratios of the largest banks–a concern reinforced by Congress, as it saw some of those large banks facing enormous losses on their loans to foreign sovereigns. This U.S. regulatory innovation was effectively internationalized a few years later in the original Basel Accord.

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A Historic ‘Policy Framing’ Week

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By Guest Author - November 14th, 2010, 6:00AM

MMU November 2010

Your Brain is Broken

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 13th, 2010, 12:30PM

Around these parts, we are very keen to point out cognitive foibles.

Temporarily stuck in human form as we are, our instruments for perceiving the universe around us are inherently flawed, susceptible to all manner of errors.

It is a design error in the wetware.

In the ongoing battle to keep these flaws from impacting our investing process, we keep learning of new problems — with both our hardware and software. We can work to keep the firmware updated, but the errors that keep cropping up are even worse than we previously imagined:

New research suggests that misinformed people rarely change their minds when presented with the facts — and often become even more attached to their beliefs. The finding raises questions about a key principle of a strong democracy: that a well-informed electorate is best.

Facts, apparently, don’t matter much . . .

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Source:
In Politics, Sometimes The Facts Don’t Matter
Interview with Dana Milbank, Brendan Nyhan and Robert Wood Johnson
NPR, July 13, 2010
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128490874&f=1014&sc=tw

Found Object: The Radhost Complector

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 13th, 2010, 10:10AM

I love this piece of sculptural art (found via random click) at the Ewing Workshop:

The Radhost Complector shows its bearer the way to other world realms and planes of existence. Etched inside you will find many dead ends and oubliettes tempting you to stray from the paths that lead to Avalon, Atlantis, Asgard, Midgard, Helheim and tir Na Nog, home to the Fae folk and to the Cormon. But most important of all, you will find the path home. The pointer of the Complector is a shard of citrine quartz suspended in the middle of three spinning brass rings that revolve to show you where you are, or perhaps warn you that you are on the wrong path. The hand beaten spherical brass map is protected by a segmented layer of oak and then encased in a cage of dressed copper and brass. A small covered portal in the Complector’ front can be opened in order to check your heading or you can open the top altogether if you are in fear of getting lost in the ether. If you intend for your adventures to take you to far off lands and realms of the unknown, or if you are seeking things most men fear to speak of, you will need to arm yourself with The Radhost Complector.

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click for bigger photos

More photos after the jump

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A Closer Look at the Grocery Cart

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By Invictus - November 13th, 2010, 9:30AM

Invictus here.

Either because it was mildly political in nature or because it referred to government data, my recent critique of Sarah Palin’s foray into economics — specifically grocery inflation — garnered a fair amount of commentary.  Putting the politics aside, I thought it might be instructive to take a closer look at how the BLS crunches the numbers that many claim are worthless.  So, herewith a look behind the curtain at how the 12-month gain in Food at Home settled out at +1.4 percent.  [NOTE:  This may make some readers drowsy.  Do not read on a handheld device while driving.]

First, though, a look at what Food at Home — or Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption — represents as a percent of Personal Consumption Expenditures (about 7.8%):

With that in mind, let’s look at the most recent report from BLS on CPI (Table 3, Page 10).  For all who have shared their personal anecdotal evidence, please keep in mind that in addition to providing “U.S. City Average” data (which is what’s below), BLS breaks down by region and also by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA).  So, while the numbers here may seem off to you, they might seem more on target if we were to filter down to your region, MSA, or city.  I would expect the numbers for my locale to deviate significantly from the U.S. City Average (actual prices are referenced a bit further down).

There are six super categories, which I’ve underlined.  In the interest of saving innocent pixels, I’ve cut many of the sub-categories.  I left “Other food at home” because I thought it was important to look in the catch-all bucket; it’s included in its entirety (as is the Cereals category).

The first column above shows us what percent of total PCE is represented by the line item, hence 7.801 for Food at Home.  Within Food at Home, below is a table that breaks down the six super categories within and details their influence in arriving at the overall 1.4% year-over-year gain (sorted by Relative Importance):

So, “Other Food at Home,” at 2.023, is 25.9% of 7.801, and at a +0.4% YoY change contributes +0.1% (0.4 * 0.259 = 0.1036).   Clearly Meats, Poultry, Fish & Eggs comprised almost the entire year-over-year gain (1.745/7.801 = 0.224; 0.224 * 0.047 = +1.1), with Dairy & Related coming in a distant second, adding 0.3.

For those who would like to see the actual prices used by BLS in their calculations, please look in this PDF at Table P4, Page 107.  It is in this table that BLS cites the prices it is using for the average U.S. city and for each of the country’s four regions.  It is from this table that we can really do — pun intended — an apples-to-apples (~$1.30/lb. for Red Delicious) comparison.  Sample below:


I’m sure everyone’s mileage varies here.  And I do appreciate the fact that there are many anecdotal stories out there that differ from these numbers.  But again, I would make two points:

  1. No data set is perfect
  2. You may find a better correlation to your personal “truth” if you drilled down to your region or MSA; the differences can be significant.

Now, if I had to guess, I’d speculate that with wheat having gone parabolic, we’ll soon see a visible spike in Cereals & Bakery Products.

CPI 101 is adjourned.  Hope this is somewhat informative.

ADDING: Many questions about methodology are answered here and here (pdf).  Of course, if your brain is broken you’re disinclined to believe the government’s answers, don’t bother clicking through.

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