IT’S OFFICIAL: The Bears Were Wrong!
By Barry Ritholtz - December 26th, 2010, 11:14AM
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
December 26th, 2010 at 11:19 am
► http://dshort.com/charts/index.html?current-market-snapshot
Here lies the 20% bear market: July 2008 – November 2010.
December 26th, 2010 at 11:30 am
Not really.
The market peaked in October 2007; it fell, almost continuously until March 2009, a collapse of 57% or so. The 20% mark in themiddle doesn’t have a lot of meaning. Since the March 09 lows, its popped up about 85%.
That D short chart shows the lost 27 months post Lehman — but it doesn’t paint the full picture as to what occurred.
December 26th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
Dan Gross seems to have pulled out his best Tommy* impression for this clip — one which highlights that the US economy and stock market have done much better then most people thought …. while ignoring, slash making no mention of, the elephants in the room [i.e. a prolonged, and what some may call unnatural, ZIRP environment, QEn (where n is now looking, under current policy guidelines, to eventually approach infinity), or continuing government largesse (whether overt or backdoor in nature)].
Perhaps he articulated these points in his newsweek “America’s Back” article (I don’t know; never read it), but it comes across in his victory lap acceptance speech as if he is portraying the economic/mkt performance as being organic … something it most assuredly is not (or, at least, probably more correctly stated, much of which is most assuredly not).
* Deaf, dumb and blind (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tommy_%28album%29#Synopsis )
December 26th, 2010 at 12:53 pm
PS — I’m surprised Blodget didn’t call him on those points …. I suspect one of those Egg Council creeps got to him too. (http://improvidentlackwit.com/lackwit/2007/09/12/egg-council)
December 26th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
But just imagine how good the numbers would look if a majority of those poor 15 million unemployed people had jobs!
December 26th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
I thought the de-leveraging consumer was a myth, and we really have two sets of borrowers, those who are defaulting and those who are still running up the credit cards. Honestly, I don’t think it matters. What matters is the total national income to total national debt. Or, can your national income service your national debt (public and private).
Anyone who was bullish on the stock market deserves to take a victory lap. Period. No two ways about it (That includes James Altucher). I think the economy is another story. Both bulls and bears have gotten it wrong. So far, John Mauldin’s “Muddle Through Economy” has been closest to the truth. Actually, I think that’s healthiest way forward. Tread water until we get our debts restructured.
I am fully aware that John Mauldin is a biased Republican. He is up front about that fact in just about every news letter. Everyone is biased. Anyone who claims to be unbiased, is either a fool or a liar and probably both.
December 26th, 2010 at 3:02 pm
Strange!
Between Daniel Gross pithy explanations of “Here’s why America still rocks, bitches!” and the data-driven, sobering yet grounded in reality admonitions of Jeremy Grantham and David Rosenberg, I kinda prefer someone who does not dismiss out of hand those “elephants in the room” that Tyler K correctly alluded to.
Yes! I’m aware that all these animals may already be priced into the market and the problems will take care of themselves while the markets power up another 60%. It sure could happen.
After all, this time is NOT different…just a whole lot trickier than usual.
December 26th, 2010 at 7:49 pm
Good points Barry. That chart doesn’t really show enough.
December 26th, 2010 at 8:29 pm
Oh, please. Making a case that all is better with utterly useless data that has been statistically abused to the point of being false and misleading is just another indication of how bad things really are.
On top of that I can’t stand comments like no one would prefer europes problems over ours. Too bad he only polled other blind Americans to come to that conclusion. Since the election of Bush, most people around the world are at a complete loss as to what America thinks it is doing.
December 26th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
BULLSHIT !
In nominal dollars but to gold this isn’t the case.
December 28th, 2010 at 2:18 am
So does the Fed control the economy or not?