Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (12.3.10)
Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Irish bailout after initial hissy fit helps to calm markets by week’s end
2) Spain and Portugal successfully sell debt, also calming nerves
3) Trichet remains patient, says no to peer pressure, doesn’t further blur line between monetary and fiscal policy
4) Chinese mfr’g indices rise to 7 mo high
5) Taiwan and South Korea PMI’s both rise
6) Thailand raises rates to face inflation
7) ISM services and mfr’g indices hold steady
8) Pending Home Sales show big upside
9) ABC confidence at 7 week high
Negatives:
1) Irish bailout fruitless as economic growth can’t grow fast enough to pay off debts
2) Payrolls well below estimates and unemployment rate at 7 mo high
3) Mortgage rates continue higher, refi’s fall 22%
4) S&P/CS show softer home prices
5) Gasoline prices highest since May
6) Asia continues rate hikes
7) Trichet disappoints some euro bondholders.
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December 3rd, 2010 at 8:11 pm
Gas prices are starting to hurt. People at work are mentioning them again. Poor Ben – he’s either clueless or arrogant (probably both). He’s not only wrong but if he doesn’t knock it off with the money printing ASAP – he’s going to cause THE shitstorm of the century.
December 3rd, 2010 at 8:27 pm
When all else fails–and I mean all else–gasoline prices still get the attention of my fellow citizens. I don’t blame people for being in deep denial about how bad things are; I’m in deep denial myself. We are economically, politically, and morally unmoored. I would really rather not think about how this country has become an oligarchy of the rich and well-connected; I would rather not think about the callousness of our elected officials on the subject of unemployment; and I certainly don’t want to think about the bloodthirsty nature of our foreign policy. But I can’t not think about the price of gasoline: It is right out front, every day. How can anyone be surprised that Big Oil owns our politics, our foreign policy, our economy? Who among our political leadership can possibly summon the courage to stand up to them?
December 4th, 2010 at 6:55 am
Math for me-
Costs me about $25/week with gas at $2.50. I’m now up to $30/week. That’s $5 a week = $250/year. If oil hits $100, I’ll be out $500/year.
I drive a very efficient sedan. If I drove an SUV or Jeep – I’d be out $1k – $2K per year.
$2K is REAL money for a family of four and most certainly has an impact.
But wait! There’s more. Heating costs are going to add up to another $1 – $2K per annum for anyone on heating oil.
Utility costs will be up nicely as well.
I figure all the money printing and speculation is now sucking a good $5K – $7K from your average household with 2 cars and kids.
Keep up the good work Ben. Keep buying those PE expansions on leverage!
December 4th, 2010 at 8:20 am
Just when signs of the recession begin to slightly diminish (this, of course, is propaganda in reality) gas prices rise so that BIG OIL gets their cut off the top. So much for trying to spur the economy when practically everything is connected to gas prices in some way and gas goes up as the dollar gets a wee bit stronger for a month or two. Expect higher food prices if this price rise sticks as transportation charges go up to reflect the increase in fuel costs. Meanwhile, when was the last time anyone got a significant raise?
As an adjunct math instructor i haven’t gotten a raise in years (and no bennies, no recourse if they feel like they don’t need me) and have to find more places to work, longer hours, and side gigs to make ends meet NOW (and it isn’t easy). This isn’t fun any more.
December 4th, 2010 at 9:11 am
Funny, while Club Euro is frantically bailing out the little PIIGS Frau Merkel is ruminating about bailing out of Club Euro (like Groucho Marx who didn’t want to belong to any club that would allow a member like him).
The Irish are going to default anyway, they might as well do it before their helpers bleed them white
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1204/1224284778325.html
December 4th, 2010 at 9:50 am
On an inflation adjusted basis, has gasoline ever been cheaper?
December 4th, 2010 at 10:19 am
BR so then why the hell are you so bullish? those negatives are something else.. I’ve noticed you are way more bullish- too bullish for me
December 4th, 2010 at 10:52 am
BR is bullish because he understands that money printing puts an articial floor under asset prices, i.e., equities….will it all end badly? I think so but we have a ways to go yet….
December 4th, 2010 at 12:27 pm
“On an inflation adjusted basis, has gasoline ever been cheaper?”
Of course – look at January 2009.
December 4th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
With the GOP close to to success in their overriding goal, lower marginal tax rates for the rich, they are rolling out their stalking horse for even lower rates for the rich: tax reform/simplification is best achieved with fewer rate thresholds…
Here’s a typical claim from NYT resident right winger David Brooks:
“…The Wyden-Gregg plan simplifies the tax code and reduces the number of rates from six to three…”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/opinion/03brooks.html?src=me&ref=general
The number of income tax rates is nothing compared to the thousands of pages of rules and regulations in the tax code. Stating with a straight face that decreasing the number of rates as the key to tax simplification is ridiculous.
Brooks likes to create an allusion of intellectualism. If , so, he should stop parroting back the bullet-pointed RNC fax blasts and actually get a copy of the tax code and read it; he’d see that the other 99,000 pages of the code are the problem with the complexity.
…which, by the way, if you haven’t gotten up to speed on it, tax prep software handles fine unless you’re some rampant Tax Avoider with off-shore trusts, non-fiscal holding corporations etc… etc… etc… then YOU are choosing to add complexity (I thought “choice” was the GOP mantra.. oh, right, unless it’s your tax situation.)