I have been saying that the framework for this recession recovery is not the usual post-contraction expansion, but rather, the set of Post-Credit Crisis recoveries. This is a decidedly smaller set, one that is meticulously detailed in Reinhart and Rogoff’s This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

Hence, when we look at most employment charts, the set of recessions we tend to see is US Post WWII contractions. I have suggested that perhaps more insightful could be derived from a global, post-credit crisis set.

As revealed by the Employment charts below, courtesy of Ron Griess of The Chart Store, this recovery is far different than the typical post WW2 recession. The downside was far more severe, and the recovery is going to be far slower and more gradual than is typical.



Category: Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

7 Responses to “2007-11 Employment Recovery: What Is Different”

  1. Winston says:

    Great chart porn! Please allow me to toot my own horn here in that I wondered where Bernanke found his information for that rosy assessment. This story has me wondering the same things: How does Bernanke propose we get claw back the jobs that were lost over the past three years? What about stimulating job growth to catch up to the jobs that were not created while the population kept expanding?

    While this is a rhetorical question, it seems appropriate to ask: Does Bernanke know anyone who has been unemployed for five years?

  2. super_trooper says:

    In reality, both the 2001 and 2007-11 recoveries are different. 2007 was just more severe. One can only wonder what the next recovery will look like. The current trajectory doesn’t give much to hope for.

  3. Ramstone says:

    I’d submit this is the New Same. See 1990 and 2001. Anemic, laggy employment recoveries (I’ll skip the ironic airquotes).

  4. bear_in_mind says:

    Agree w/Ramstone: to me, this looks like the new “normal” with a fiscal/credit crisis larded on top. You cannot export middle class (and increasingly, upper-middle) jobs indefinitely without the effects becoming blindingly apparent. Of course, the corporate-owned MSM keeps the public’s attention diverted from reality to maintain the status quo for as long as they can get away with it. We’re 25+ years into this experiment… any guesses before the tide turns? The catalyst?! Or do folks think there’s no turning this around?

  5. Long term says:

    agree with BR that more insight “could be derived from a global, post-credit crisis set.”

    but these charts do allow us to make conclusions about our own back yard. i think we will need a large innovation to dig out. like alternative energy, AI, etc. even then, we have to wonder if those jobs would be here. internet jobs were available for many years after internet boom. but we have sold a lot of the key infrastructure since then…

  6. Hillbilly says:

    As super_trooper points out the naturee of this recovery is the same as the prvious one in 2001, they only differ in the degree of decline prior.

    So what’s the reason for that? Couldn’t be that we allow a variety of folks around the world to export their unemployment to the States by way of an employment encouraging undervaluation of their own currency via a dollar-peg of their could it? Nah. Couldn’t be that the “new normal” employment picture concindes with the entry into WTO of one such nation that still refuses to abide by plethora of WTO market-opening rules could it? Nah.

  7. [...] this post for some time, trying to identify a good way to introduce the subject. The graphic above, kindly furnished by The Big Picture, is as good a place to start as any. The unemployment situation is different in this recession than [...]