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Guru Time of Year

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 2nd, 2011, 10:42AM

Yes, its that time of year when all the Gurus come out to discuss what the markets and the economy will be doing in the coming 12 months.

These tend to fall into several categories: 1) Asset managers talking their books; 2) the Perma-bulls and bears do the usual debate; 3) A series of confirmation-biased laden analyses.

History teaches us its best to ignore them.

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Stock gurus

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I love this piece from Allan Roth, circa 2005; you can see his current columns here, and have a look at his ironic 5 Financial Predictions for 2011.

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Previously:
Apprenticed Investor: The Folly of Forecasting (06/07/05)

PERMALINK
Category: Apprenticed Investor, Contrary Indicators, Investing, Markets.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “Guru Time of Year”

  1. dead hobo Says:
    January 2nd, 2011 at 12:02 pm

    Genius. He concisely write what I’ve been droning on about for years. Maybe next he’ll write about the how the real goal of advising is to keep people invested, thus earning commission on invested assets, and make commission on investment gains only as a sideline. Yes, many advisors probably take their fiduciary responsibilities seriously. But enough idiots abound and only the worst of the worst of the worst appear to risk any censure. As a result, it’s impossible to know if your advisor is any good until well after the fact. When the rules of the game change so the good can gang up on the bad and kick them out of the profession, then I’ll change my tune on this.

  2. cognos Says:
    January 2nd, 2011 at 12:32 pm

    If you know who the right people are ( most don’t) then “talking their book” is not really a problem.

    Go back and look at Bill Gross talking his book. It’s been mostly quite profitable. Look at Jeff Grundlach – even better. In hedge fund space, more obscure boutique managers like Einhorn, Paulson, and lower profile guys talk their books and put up 20% annual returns for a decade. So do their books. So does their talk.

    The question is – who’s talking what book?

    People like Grantham, Hussman, Gartnrt, Faber, Rogers, Wien, Biggs, Jass, most sell siders, etc. These guys just suck. CNBC needs to fill time.

  3. cognos Says:
    January 2nd, 2011 at 12:34 pm

    Look at Tepper “talking his book”. Can some please follow that!?

  4. cubitgripe Says:
    January 2nd, 2011 at 2:06 pm

    more evidence that confirmation bias is everywhere:

    http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/12/13/101213fa_fact_lehrer?currentPage=all

  5. drey Says:
    January 2nd, 2011 at 2:21 pm

    “This should be a relatively easy year for stock pickers.”

    My favorite quote of the year thus far. Guess who said it.

    A. BenStein
    B. Jim Kramer
    C. Jeremy Seigel
    D. Ken Fisher

    If you guessed ‘D’ for Ken Fisher you win a kewpie doll and we can start the party…

  6. VennData Says:
    January 2nd, 2011 at 2:50 pm

    How many can you spot that qualify on all three counts?

    I’ll offer Peter Schiff …as I keep searching Youtube for “Peter Schiff was right in March ’09.”

  7. Efficientish Says:
    January 2nd, 2011 at 4:28 pm

    Why I forecast:

    http://efficientish.blogspot.com/2010/12/reviewing-my-2010-predictions.html

    My forecasts for 2011:

    http://efficientish.blogspot.com/2010/12/predictions-for-2011.html

  8. Vilgrad Says:
    January 2nd, 2011 at 8:57 pm

    2011 – The Year of Catch-22

    http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=9053

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