Morning stuff

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By Peter Boockvar - January 20th, 2011, 9:55AM

Inflation and the possible responses to it are what’s impacting markets today. It started in China when Q4 GDP was released with a 9.8% y/o/y gain, above expectations of 9.4%. Also, CPI rose 4.6% y/o/y (in line with yesterday’s story), PPI rose 5.9% vs the est of 5.7% and IP and Retail Sales were also above forecasts. The Shanghai index fell 3% to a 4 month low and is now 15% off its recent high in Nov proving that a strong economy and a rising stock market are not always correlated if inflation and higher interest rates are a consequence of the strong growth. German PPI rose 5.3%, the fastest pace since Oct ’08 and above estimates of 4.9% and Hong Kong CPI was up 3.1%, the most since Jan ’09 vs the forecast of 3%. Brazil raised interest rates 50 bps last night as expected to 11.25% in response to rising inflation pressures. Key in the Philly Fed survey today will be not only Prices Paid but also Prices Received to see what’s been passed thru.

Initial Jobless Claims totaled 404k, 16k below expectations and down from a revised 441k last week (from 445k). To smooth out the seasonal distortions surrounding the holidays, the 4 week average was 412k vs 416k last week and 411k the week prior which was the lowest since Aug ’08. Continuing Claims fell by 26k to the lowest since Oct ’08 but Extended Benefits rose a net 29k. Bottom line, the story (song) remains the same in that the pace of firings continue to trend lower, albeit slowly, while the level of hirings relative to the monthly rise in the labor force continues to be below historical recoveries.

48% Cash; Reducing Positions

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 20th, 2011, 9:52AM

I mentioned in comments last week we were 48% cash in our Long/Short Portfolio; One of the asset allocation models we run is now 20% cash, 20% bonds.

As we are starting to get into the meat of the earnings season, more and more profit taking is likely. We are overdue for a pullback, and the past few earnings seasons have ended with markets dropping. Hence, our (small) QID) position.

Our current holdings/entry prices/weightings in our managed accounts Long Short portfolio are after the jump.

Read the rest of this entry »

S&P500 Breaks Hitting Streak, Jimmy Rollins Safe…

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By Global Macro Monitor - January 20th, 2011, 8:30AM

Global Macro Monitor produces informed opinion about markets and the global economy. This was originally published on January 19, 2011

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The S&P500 broke its streak of 37 consecutive days without a one percent correction, just barely, however, falling 1.01 percent.  Jimmy Rollins can sleep easier tonight.  The NASDAQ was down 1.46 percent.


So what’s next?  If history is indicative of near-term performance, don’t expect a major sell-off in the next week or two.  The table below shows that over the past 20 years there have been seventeen streaks where the S&P500 had not experienced a one percent correction for 37 consecutive days.

The average return over the next five days was 0.59 percent and over the next ten, 0.71 percent.   Of the seventeen observations, thirteen experienced positive returns in both of the time periods.

Will history repeat?  Who knows, but it certainly may rhyme.  The action in F5 Networks –a leader in the recent tech rally — after the bell is extremely ugly.  Their revenue miss has clipped 20 percent off the stock.   The market seems to be in a selling mode, whether hit or miss.

Commodities also reversed today.  We took some pain trying to catch the Mosaic falling knife after the Cargill announcement.  The question is does Cargill sniff a top in Ag commodities and trying to top-tick its divestiture?

And we didn’t exactly trade Apple like Joe the MOTU around earnings and the Steve announcement.  Apple traded over $355 after the close yesterday.    Like many out there today we’re also reaching for the KY.

We’re still in a powerful uptrend until proven otherwise and do think the markets may give us a gift here, especially in tech, and will be looking to buy the “French dip.”  No more falling knives, however.   Stay tuned!


Inflation unsettling markets

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By Peter Boockvar - January 20th, 2011, 8:29AM

Inflation and the possible responses to it are what’s impacting markets today. It started in China when Q4 GDP was released with a 9.8% y/o/y gain, above expectations of 9.4%. Also, CPI rose 4.6% y/o/y (in line with yesterday’s story), PPI rose 5.9% vs the est of 5.7% and IP and Retail Sales were also above forecasts. The Shanghai index fell 3% to a 4 month low and is now 15% off its recent high in Nov proving that a strong economy and a rising stock market are not always correlated if inflation and higher interest rates are a consequence of the strong growth. German PPI rose 5.3%, the fastest pace since Oct ’08 and above estimates of 4.9% and Hong Kong CPI was up 3.1%, the most since Jan ’09 vs the forecast of 3%. Brazil raised interest rates 50 bps last night as expected to 11.25% in response to rising inflation pressures. Key in the Philly Fed survey today will be not only Prices Paid but also Prices Received to see what’s been passed thru.

Cattle Prices Stampeding

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 20th, 2011, 6:52AM

MacroMan points out that Live Cattle Futures have gone parabolic; Daniel Dicker blames speculative derivative traders and a lack of oversight as the cause.

I have no idea what is the underlying driver, but we are now at record prices for Live Cattle Futures — will Beef soon follow?

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Source: Global Macro Monitor

Wednesday Reads

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 19th, 2011, 5:38PM

• U.S. Stocks Near ‘Significant’ Top, Tom DeMark Says (Bloomberg)

• Stop the Jets (Floyd Norris) for the sake of the stock market . . .

• The full story of the Ibanez case (Alphaville)

• Will We See Another Earnings Season Selloff?  (Marketbeat)

• Apple’s Amateur Analysts Outperform Wall Street Professionals (Bloomberg)

• Investing With the Herd (Bucks)

• The Soft Tyranny of Alphabetical Order (Real Time Economics)

• The Mathematics Of Beauty (OK Trends)

• What we can learn from a nuclear reactor (FT.com)

• Your Memories are Fiction (Science Proves You’re Stupid) (H Plus)

The Media Universe

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 19th, 2011, 3:41PM

As a follow up to our recent Apple / Blog posts, enjoy this lovely NielsenWire/Factsheet chart porn on The U.S. Media Universe

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click for ginormous graphic

Hmmm, good chart porn . . .

On the Origin of Venn Diagrams . . .

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 19th, 2011, 3:25PM

On the Diagrammatic and Mechanical Representation of Propositions and Reasonings (Google Books).

Howard Stern on CNN’s Piers Morgan

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 19th, 2011, 2:04PM

On his career and his father

Howard Stern talks politics – running for office, and love for America

Stern tells Piers about his musical tastes, which include Miley Cyrus, and getting older.

Hat tip Josh

Even Oprah Doesn’t Like to Pay Taxes

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By Marion Maneker - January 19th, 2011, 2:00PM

Before we get too far from Piers Morgan’s debut interview with Oprah Winfrey, there was an interesting moment that may be indicative of something larger in our political and cultural landscape. At the risk of reading too much into what was clearly meant as a light-hearted comment on her wealth, let’s look at the television mogul’s comments about her net worth.

Morgan raised the topic of her $2.7 billion net worth. “I’m not sitting around counting it,” Winfrey said dismissively. To which Morgan teased, I’ll bet you know exactly how much you’re worth, Oprah. Proud and disarmed, Winfrey confessed that indeed she wasn’t sitting around counting her money because she already had counted it.

To show what a watchful eye she has, the discussion then moved to how she still “signs” all checks over $100,000–and you’d be surprised how many of those she was writing. But, the daytime star confessed, as much as she liked writing six-figure checks for talented employees there was one check she hated to write. That was her taxes. She and her accountants even had an elaborate ceremony to take some of the sting out of the occasion.

This was a relatively innocuous statement. Who likes to pay taxes? And the extremely wealthy seem to dislike it even more the less it impacts their day-to-day living. However, during that same interview Winfrey made it clear that it was her life’s mission to help others improve their own lives. That’s her mission, the source of her worldly success and the core of her brand which she described as ‘love.’ “My brand is love,” she told Morgan and corrected him when he tried to cavil.

In contemporary life, it is hard to find a figure who could better embody the term Liberal. Here is a woman who harks back to her childhood in the “apartheid state” of Mississippi; talks freely about her teenage pregnancy and the ramifications it would have had on the rest of her life; still self-identifies as a school teacher and describes Barack Obama as having made no mistakes during his first two years in office.

Oh, and let’s not forget that she has acknowledged being in a long-term non-traditional emotional relationship. She ticks every box on the Liberal checklist. And even she doesn’t like to pay taxes!

It may seem remote now. But there was a time when the government was viewed as an essential actor in improving lives, that paying taxes was part of the commonweal. Let’s not suggest that anyone is enthusiastic about getting taxed. Nevertheless, one could draw a line from one’s own tax bill to the necessary services government provides. Without taxation, there is no solution to the crisis of public debt.

This point was reinforced yesterday when Neel Kashkari appeared on Bloomberg warning that America’s deficit was reaching crisis proportions without a reduction in spending. Nevermind that his boss, Bill Gross, was contributed to a Barron’s panel over the weekend by complaining that the Obama administration had failed to invest in American economic vitality because it hadn’t launched any large-scale infrastructure projects like high-speed trains.

We can’t referee inside PIMCO but it is striking that Kashkari’s point of view is confined to spending cuts with no mention of finding ways to raise taxes that won’t limit growth. In other words, the default cultural assumption in the US is that taxes are unconnected to economic vitality, social cohesion or personal happiness.

To take it a step further. Piers Morgan engaged in a fanciful line of banter with Oprah asking whether she would ever run for president given how popular she was and how much she’d done to help Barack Obama win election. Blessedly, Winfrey didn’t flirt with the ridiculous idea. “I know my lande,” she said with pride.

Another entertainer who not only flirted with the idea of running a state but actually won the office, Arnold Schwarzenegger, complained late last week that his political sojourn had probably cost him $200 million in lost income. The governor was quick to say that ‘it was more than worth it.’

The implication is that the only way Schwarzenegger can validate his time in office–as he leaves with a 23% approval rating–is by publicizing the magnitude of personal sacrifice he made for public service. Without a dollar figure, there would be no way find his work estimable.

This may be just the extreme end of a pendulum swing against government that began with Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980. Thirty years is a long arc even for political swings. So there’s probably something bigger at work here. For all of our hand-wringing about the fate of the American economy, US standards of living and our long term prospects, there doesn’t seem to be true sense of common purpose. Americans don’t want to invest their own money in what the government does. Citizens certainly don’t feel that the money they pay in taxes will be spent achieving the national goals they endorse.

That isn’t a political point of view. Conservatives feel government is too big and entitlements a massive transfer pump from the deserving to the undeserving. Liberals worry that their taxes pay for the world’s biggest military. Locally, everyone eyes the salaries and benefits of public workers with envy and remorse.

Cultural attitudes change, sometimes very quickly. But the looming problems with municipal, State and Federal debt in the US cannot be divorced from these attitudes toward funding government.

When the most visible persons opt out of viewing government as the hub of the commonweal, it is hardly the surprising that the rest of us should feel the same way. With the exception of Warren Buffet, few have acknowledged a connection between their own taxes and the robustness of the government. Showing, like many of the billionaire’s other quaint foibles, that he is a vestige of a different era.

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