எந்திரன் (Enthiran aka The Robot)

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 28th, 2011, 9:00AM

One part Matrix, one part Terminator, one part Transformers:

The film’s story revolves around a scientist’s struggle to control his creation, an android robot whose programme was upgraded to give it the ability to comprehend and generate human emotions. The plan backfires as the robot falls in love with the scientist’s fiancée and is further manipulated to bring destruction to the world when it lands in the hands of a rival scientist. How the robot is stopped from further destruction forms the rest of the plot.

Hat tip boingboing

We haven’t seen this in almost 16 yrs

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By Peter Boockvar - January 28th, 2011, 8:35AM

Assuming no major change today, the DJIA is on track for a 9th straight week of gains and that would be the 1st time since 1995 when it rose 10 weeks in a row. The markets began an extraordinary 5 yr run beginning in 1995 after the Fed ended a sharp rate hike cycle in ’94 thru early ’95 and the 10 yr bond yield fell 250 bps in ’95 so the interest rate backdrop are of course not apples to apples so don’t extrapolate. Following the S&P downgrade of Japan, JGB’s yields actually fell and the yen is gaining back what it lost yesterday. The Nikkei though fell by 1.1%. Japan has no easy way out but for now JGB’s continue to have blind faith in the generosity of the Japanese who own 94% of the market. Little news in Europe but the FTSE looks like its topping out after the poor GDP report earlier in the week and today Jan consumer confidence fell to the lowest since Mar ’09.

How to Regulate Mortgage Lending, Part 3

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 28th, 2011, 8:30AM

Bill Black is the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One and an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. He is a white-collar criminologist who has spent years working on regulatory policy and fraud prevention as Executive Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention, Litigation Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board and Deputy Director of the National Commission on Financial Institution Reform, Recovery and Enforcement, among other positions.

Part II  is here.

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By William K. Black

Honest accounting is essential for effective regulation – and for integrity. It is also very helpful to prosecuting accounting fraud. The banking industry lobbyists, including the Chamber of Commerce, with Bernanke’s support, induced the House to extort successfully the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) to gimmick the accounting rules so that banks would not have to report their losses. This accounting scam was implemented in order to gut the Prompt Corrective Action law (which the Bush and Obama regulators wished to evade) and allow the banks controlling officers to pay themselves and their officers billions of dollars of bonuses to which they were not entitled. This shameful act makes it far more difficult for regulators to take effective action against fraudulent and incompetent bankers. It is essential that we restore honest accounting. Indeed, it is vital that the SEC, the PCAOB, and FASB clean up existing accounting defects, such as the endemic failures to provide remotely adequate loss reserves (ALLL) for mortgage loans, CDOs, and CDS. (The international accounting rules are being interpreted even worse – abusive accounting is an open invitation to accounting control frauds.)

The only effective way to implement such a sea change in regulatory mindset is with new leadership. The Obama administration has largely left in place Bush’s failed regulators like Dugan (OCC), reappointed failed regulators like Bernanke (Fed), appointed failed regulators like Shapiro (SEC), and promoted failed regulators like Geithner (Treasury). There are financial regulators with a track record of success, regulators who public administration scholars use as exemplars in their writings of effective regulatory leadership. To my knowledge, the Obama administration has appointed none of them and consulted none of them as to the lessons they learned about what worked and what failed. The exception is Paul Volcker, who was never an “in the trenches” regulator, but who is certainly brilliant. He prompted passage of the Volcker Rule in the Dodd-Frank Act. Larry Summers, according to published accounts, deliberately marginalized and excluded Volcker in order to minimize his ability to influence President Obama. Rubin and his protégés fear a real regulator investigating the banks whose nonprime loans and CDOs drove the crisis. Rubin’s personal nightmare is a vigorous investigation of Citicorp. Any real regulator would make that nightmare a reality within a week. The chances that the administration will appoint a senior banking regulator with a track record of success remain small

How Banking Works

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 28th, 2011, 7:30AM

I was surprised at the normally astute FT.com for taking an old joke, and getting it wrong. Let’s see if we can help the FT find their sense of humor.

First, the old joke:

Bail-out blues

The rain beats down in a small Irish town. The streets are deserted. Times are tough. Everyone is in debt and living on credit. A rich German arrives at the local hotel, asks to view its rooms and puts on the desk a €100 note. The owner gives him a bunch of keys and he goes off for an inspection.

As soon as he has gone upstairs, the hotelier grabs the note and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher hurries down the street to pay what he owes to his feed merchant. The merchant heads for the pub and uses the note to pay his bar bill. The publican slips the note to the local hooker who’s been offering her services on credit. She rushes to the hotel to pay what she owes for room hire. As she puts the €100 bill on the counter, the German appears, says the rooms are unsuitable, picks up his €100 note and leaves town.

No one did any work. No one earned anything. Everyone is out of debt. Everyone is feeling better. And that is how a bail-out works.

Well, not really.

To begin with, the proper punchline to the joke is: “And that is how banking works.

Next, there was no bailout. If the rich German never came along, the town would not have defaulted, nor would it have have caused a global meltdown. Instead, we see an economy that thrives on credit. All of the local services were purchased on credit, by solvent, responsible, employed debtors who promptly paid off their debts as soon as they were liquid.

Indeed, this is an economy town suffering from a liquidity issue, not a solvency problem.

Here is how a bailout works: The financial sector ignores traditional capital requirements, imprudently leverages itself to the hilt, then blows up. The recklessness makes these banks insolvent, and the resultant collateral damage threatens the broader economy. A bailout is accomplished by transferring money from local taxpayer to the banks that caused the problem. Wait a decade or two, and repeat.

None of that is present in the above situation.

Last, the statement “No one did any work. No one earned anything” is actually false. Everyone did work and earned something: The hotelier was in debt to the butcher because he had guests whom he fed; the butcher raised and slaughtered his herd. He obviously worked with the feed merchant, who had sold his wares. The merchant purchased goods from the bartender in the pub. The pub owner had purchased services from the hooker, who in turn had purchased the services of the Hotelier. That seems to be a fairly robust economy, with a minor liquidity issue and credit squeeze.

As I have said in the past, Economics is easy . . .  comedy hard.

Coincident Indicators vs Real GDP (1959-2011)

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 28th, 2011, 5:20AM

Bob Bronson of Bronson Capital Markets Research looks at the year over year Coincident Indicators as highly correlated with Real GDP data.

In advance of Q4 GDP, Bob states “The ultimately deflationary economic Supercycle Winter double dip continues despite this morning’s GDP report for Q4 ’10.”

I am less bearish than Bob, but I love his long term look at the relationship between Coincident Indicators and Real GDP.

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click for ginormous chart

Even Snowier Thursday Reads

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 27th, 2011, 4:04PM

• Moody’s to Factor Pension Gaps in States’ Ratings (NYT)
• Jealous Davos Mistresses (Reuters) Brilliant take down of the entire scene from Mrs. Joseph Stiglitz
• Shadow inventory update (ft.com/alphaville)
• NYSE Euronext issues notice to members: Gambling is prohibited on trading floor (DJMT) Does this mean the entire floor has to close?
• Crisis Coming to China Within 5 Years (Bloomberg)
• Google Comes Under Fire for ‘Secret’ Relationship with NSA (PC World)
• What a Tea Party budget looks like (CNN/Money)
• WikiLeaks + Hyperlocal = Localeaks (Webnewser)
• The ex-commander of US troops in Iraq thinks some of his superiors should go to hell (Atlantic)
• Ted Haggard: I’m Probably What The Kids Call ‘Bisexual’ (TPM)

Surface Detail

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 27th, 2011, 3:00PM

A myriad of details in an evolving fractal landscape.

Trippy cool, dude!

Surface detail from subBlue on Vimeo.

The Three-Trillion-Dollar War

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 27th, 2011, 2:00PM

Speaking of costly wastes of money: This colorful graphic via Perceptual Edge, shows the outrageous costs of war in Iraq:

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click for truly ginormous infographic

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Whenever I hear a a congress critter discussing deficit spending, the first thing I do is check their vote on the Iraq war to see if they are legitimately concerned about deficits, or not.

Deficit hawk or Hypocrite? You decide:

Iraq War Resolution, Roll Call Vote – House (clerk.house.gov)
Iraq War Resolution, Roll Call Vote – Senate (senate.gov)

You will find most of these born again deficit hawks are hypocritical partisan hacks . . .

Has the Dow Entered a New Trading Range?

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 27th, 2011, 12:47PM

Courtesy of Chris Kimble, check out the potential breakout — or is it fakeout? — of the Dow Industrials, below:

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click for ginormous chart

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Note that “Bullish sentiment fell to a 10-week low in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months fell 8.7 percentage points to 42.0%.”

While that is a positive, it requires a bit of context: Despite the decrease, bullish sentiment remains above its historical average for the 21st consecutive week. This is the second longest streak for above-average bullish sentiment since the survey began in 1987, according to Charles Rotblut of  AAII

FCIC Report

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By Barry Ritholtz - January 27th, 2011, 11:29AM

The full FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION report is on our Bookshelf

Click here to read or download the full report

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