We’ve taken many longer term looks at the markets (See, for example, this, this, this or this) but the following chart from UBS Technical Analyst Peter Lee really tickled my fancy:

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click for larger graphic

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Source:
2011 Technical Market Outlook
Peter Lee – Chief Technical Strategist
Wealth Management Research
December 2010

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

13 Responses to “SPX Index Secular Markets (1900-2010)”

  1. mathman says:

    While this information doesn’t get even a mention in the CPI, i believe it still has relevance:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/un-food-prices-2011-1

  2. Jack Damn says:

    Nice chart, Barry. Good stuff.

  3. cognos says:

    Nice chart.

    So, after a 10-yr “bear” period we generally expect a multi-year, secular recovery… which should take the SPX to roughly the 5,000 range over the next 10 yrs.

  4. curbyourrisk says:

    The log version of this tickles your fancy. How about an actual scale???

  5. wally says:

    Thanks for setting out some guidelines for comments. That clears things up nicely.

  6. veneziano says:

    Interesting.

    For comparison, look here for an Inflation-adjusted picture;

    http://dshort.com/articles/SP-Composite-secular-bull-bear-markets.html

  7. constantnormal says:

    Thanx for that link, veneziano … gee, the slope on the inflation-adjusted chart is not so steep … I wonder what one would look like with both inflation and the impact of population growth removed?

    But that’s just crazy talk — go back to the linear scales and inflation-included chart of the 500 largest companies in a growing nation. That’s what we like to see — exponential growth to infinity and beyond!

    [for the record, the management of this blog has neither expressed nor supported any such sentiments -- I'm just taking a snarky perspective on the fine art of divination of the future via charting of the past ...]

  8. JimRino says:

    If we added a population line, you’d start to ask questions, like “Where did all the money go”.

  9. boveri says:

    These long term charts are utterly worthless, but fun to look at.

  10. Andy T says:

    The longer term wave count suggests something similar. Page 6 of this update highlight an older slide that details the decades-long Elliott Wave count. Cliff’s Note version: Sideways congestion and choppiness until at least 2020.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/46176883/SP500-Update-2-Jan-11

  11. [...] long term chart from UBS’ Peter Lee started a conversation with a friend who is a (pure) technical trader [...]

  12. low-tech cyclist says:

    What this chart really says is that where you are in your life cycle, relative to these booms and busts, makes a big difference in how useful investing might be to you.

    I didn’t really have much money to invest until about 2000, but have done quite well since. Unfortunately, the market has been treading water during that time. Maybe we’ve hit the end of this bear, and my retirement fund will increase in value by more than what I’m putting in each pay period. But neither the condition of the economy nor the fact that the previous secular bears lasted 15-20 years gives me reason to hope for that. It would be nice if an index fund was a better place to stash your money than under one’s mattress.

    In the long run, it pays to have put your money in stocks, but you know what they say about the long run.

  13. andrewp111 says:

    So, if the SPX gets really close to that line again, it becomes a screamin’ buy. This is useful information.