Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
Positives:
1) German IFO hits record high dating back to ’91, ZEW hits 6 month high
2) French business confidence near 3 yr high
3) Bonds of Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Spain, etc… rally on possibility of EFSF supported debt buybacks
4) China Q4 GDP, IP, and retail sales above expectations
5) US initial claims head down again (seasonality caveat but trend still lower)
6) Philly and NY mfr’g surveys about in line at good levels
7) Existing Home Sales above forecasts
8) Brazil proactive in cooling inflation with rate hike
Negatives:
1) Asian markets all lower on inflation and rate hike fears
2) Inflation apparent in NY and Philly mfr’g surveys, German PPI, UK CPI, Hong Kong CPI and Chinese CPI and PPI
3) US, German, UK and French long term bond yields also head higher
4) Brazil raises rates
5) The greatest CEO of our time takes another medical leave and we hope he’s back soon.


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January 21st, 2011 at 3:15 pm
8) cooling inflation
WRT to BRL- I wonder why some houses are kinda touting Embraer (ERJ).
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2124754520110121
Can a strong real and an exporter like Embraer dance in sync or will it turn out like Conan doing the Samba?
The swaps don’t seem to be doing much. Have they cornered Dilma?
January 22nd, 2011 at 6:26 am
Starting to look like Ben B will accomplish “Mission Impossible” – high unemployment AND inflation – gotta ratchet up the pain for the non-working class as the next leg in this non depression.
January 22nd, 2011 at 6:33 am
BAC chickens coming home to roost, big losses in spite of their sweetheart deal with F&F.As far as “everything but the kitchen sink” reported this Q – that term was used Q after Q for all the big banks before the accounting rules were changed for them. But with or without convenient accounting rules the reality of 7 or 8 million foreclosures can only be delayed not avoided by BAC and the other biggies, time for another round of bailouts is coming!
http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/01/22/2027887/bank-of-america-reports-huge-loss.html
January 22nd, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Bank failures #4-7 on Friday. Unofficial Problem Bank list continues to add more than it removes:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/bank-failure-7-for-2011-united-western.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/01/unofficial-problem-bank-list-increases_22.html
January 22nd, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Banks Ease Card Fees
…The GOP was wrong again.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703951704576092342255305526.html
January 23rd, 2011 at 12:09 pm
A graph of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators has gone parabolic. It appears that the Great Recession won’t be here to kick around much longer.
Have a look at page 2 of the Conference Board’s recent LEI press release:
http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/PressPDF_4107_1295514244.pdf