via FT Alphaville, Fitch Ratings has come up with a timeline of upcoming events that they expect will “help shape the direction” of eurozone sovereign credit quality:
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click for ginormous chart
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Dollar depreciation leads to higher inflation and ultimately forces foreign creditors to question their rationale and indeed their sanity for continuing purchases of U.S. Treasuries." -Bill Gross
Existing Home Sales in Jan totaled 4.57mm annualized, below expectations of 4.66mm and Dec was revised lower by 230k to 4.38mm. Taking the two months together and sales were 320k less than initially expected. However, because the number of homes for sale continues to shrink, to the lowest since May '05, months supply fell to 6.1 from 6.4 to the smallest since April '06. The median home price fell 2% y/o/y to $154,700, the cheapest since Nov '01. Distressed sales totaled 35% of the total (22% foreclosures, 13% short sales) vs 32% in Dec and 37% in Jan '11. Contract...
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February 25th, 2011 at 7:40 pm
As I recall from http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691142165 Mr. Rogoff states that these super debt cycles take 6-7 yrs to unwind and have three waves along the way.
We are perhaps just in yr 3 of 6-7 yrs. and the three waves are:
1) private sector default-i.e. AIG, Bear, Lehman, ML, Countrywide FNM, FRE etc
2) weak public sectors default- I don’t see the Eurozone’s accounting for this.. it will happen-PIIGS
3.) strong public sectors pick up the weak public sector debt and then
a.) restructure debt (modified defaults-haircuts, coupon & maturity restructurings)
b.) inflate debt away
c.) outright default on debt
At least this is what the past 800 years has told us…
hmm..
February 27th, 2011 at 9:31 am
OK, the Irish gov that “negotiated” the bank bondholder bailout just got stomped in the election (70%) turnout, next step is a referendum to repudiate the deal with the EU overlords and reestablish Irish independence.
“Renegotiate or we’ll shoot the Euro”
http://media.photobucket.com/image/buy%20this%20magazine%20or%20we%252527ll%20shoot%20the%20dog/Alex_Murphy/Stop-Shoot_the_Dog.jpg
March 1st, 2011 at 8:47 am
Irish bank withdrawals continue in Jan , another 17B, hard to pinpoint due to change in reporting – funny about that
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/figures-reveal-euro100bn-deposit-exodus-from-covered-six-2560091.html