Existing Home Sales (NSA)

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By Barry Ritholtz - February 23rd, 2011, 10:57PM

This is my favorite of all of the Existing Home Sales series — Non Seasonallly Adjusted (NSA).

(Check out Calculated Risk’s existing home sales graphs in his graph gallery).

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click for ginormous chart

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

5 Responses to “Existing Home Sales (NSA)”

  1. macrotrader603 Says:

    great chart…

  2. super_trooper Says:

    Orgasmic!
    upwards trajectory for the 2nd year in a row! And that’s without the buyers tax credit. At this rate we’ll ba at the 2007 levels in 5 years. With 3 years of exceptionally few houses built and a few more to go. Things can’t more than go up…………. in a few years.

  3. ig index Says:

    It is funny though, I think I saw almost the same picture with the last year graph. How come the existing home sales always at its peak in May? have anyone notice this?

  4. hammerandtong2001 Says:

    May?

    In the “real” world, home sales tend to peak in late spring as families (buyers) move around (job change, relocation, other) and prep their new circunstances for the early fall ritual: back to school.

    .

  5. Barry Ritholtz Says:

    There is a full annual Housing Cycle – families with kids want to move before the start of the new school year in September.

    See this Existing Home Sales, Non Seasonally Adjusted, Explained and this: The Annual Existing Home Sales MSM Errata:

    Home Sales are highly seasonal. Anyone with kids tries to avoid disrupting their school year when possible. And so, the ideal time to move into a new town (and school district) is prior to the start of the new school year in September. That factor, along with other annual holiday activity, explains the annual rhythm of the existing home sales.

    January is the worst month of the year for sales. From that low point, sales improve gradually for each of the next 6 months. They plateau over July and August, and then began heading down until December. This occurs year after year.

    For those people who actually want to understand the state of the Housing market, you have two options that avoid the cyclical seasonality: 1) You use year over year data. This removes the seasonal patterns by comparing January to January, June to June, etc. And 2) Compare non seasonably adjusted monthly data over the course of multiple years.

    There is much more here

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