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Leading Indicators of Revolt in the Middle East and Northern Africa: Corruption, Unemployment and Percentage of Household Money Spent on Food

Posted By Washingtons Blog On February 26, 2011 @ 11:30 am In Economy,Markets,War/Defense | Comments Disabled

Washington’s Blog [1] strives to provide real-time, well-researched and actionable information.  George – the head writer at Washington’s Blog [1] – is a busy professional and a former adjunct professor.

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What determines which Middle Eastern or North African (MENA) countries will face revolt?

On February 3rd, the Economist came up with a list [2] of “vulnerable” countries based upon the amount of democracy, corruption and press freedom:

Unemployment

But the Economist index doesn’t take unemployment into account unemployment.

As Alternet notes [3]:

Arab Labour Organisation (ALO) figures show that Arab countries have among the highest unemployment rates in the world — an average of 14.5 percent in fiscal year 2007/08 compared with the international average of 5.7 percent. The rates may even be higher if one accepts unofficial estimates.

Global risk specialist Mi2g notes [4]:

There are a lot of “orphans” and most are young – 65 percent of the population of the Arab League is under the age of 30. Youth unemployment rates are exorbitantly high – as high as 75 percent in some countries like Algeria. While the informal economy provides partial compensation, this does not provide security; the Jasmine Revolution was triggered by the self-immolation of a young man, Mohamed Bouazizi, unemployed after police confiscated his wheelbarrow, used to make ends meet by selling fruits and vegetables.

On February 2nd, Nomura published a report [5] written by Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations, arguing that youth unemployment and underemployment – along with a large proportion of youth – are primary factors driving revolt in the Middle East:

In both Tunisia and Egypt factors were at play which are also to be found in other economies in the region, notably:–An autocratic and corrupt regime [and] A significant―youth bulge and related unemployment and under-employment….

In other words, when there alot of young, unemployed (or under-employed) people, they might revolt.

Here are statistics from Nomura showing the percentage of youth under 15 years old and median age in years in the Middle East and Northern Africa:

Country Population Aged <15> Median Age (2010)
Algeria 27.0% 26.2%
Egypt 32.1% 23.9%
Iran 23.8% 26.8%
Iraq 40.7% 19.3%
Jordan 34.0% 22.8%
Libya 30.1% 26.2 %
Morocco 28.0% 26.2%
Saudi Arabia 32.0 % 24.6%
Syria 34.7% 22.5%
Tunisia 22.9% 29.1%
Yemen 43.4% 17.8%
On February 9th, the Economist came up [2] with a revised index, which they call the “shoe thrower’s index” (throwing one’s shoes at someone is the ultimate sign of disrespect in the Arab world).

The index gives a 35% weighting for the share of the population that is under 25; 15% for the number of years the government has been in power; 15% for both corruption and lack of democracy as measured by existing indices; 10% for GDP per person; 5% for an index of censorship and 5% for the absolute number of people younger than 25:

As a side note, youth unemployment is rising globally. As the New York Times reported [6] last August:

Youth unemployment across the world has climbed to a new high and is likely to climb further this year, a United Nations [7] agency said Thursday, while warning of a “lost generation” as more young people give up the search for work.The agency, the International Labor Organization [8], said in a report that of some 620 million young people ages 15 to 24 in the work force, about 81 million were unemployed at the end of 2009 — the highest level in two decades of record-keeping by the organization, which is based in Geneva.

The youth unemployment rate increased to 13 percent in 2009 from 11.9 percent in the last assessment in 2007.

“There’s never been an increase of this magnitude — both in terms of the rate and the level — since we’ve been tracking the data,” said Steven Kapsos, an economist with the organization. The agency forecast that the global youth unemployment rate would continue to increase through 2010, to 13.1 percent, as the effects of the economic downturn continue. It should then decline to 12.7 percent in 2011.

***

In some especially strained European countries, including Spain and Britain, many young people have become discouraged and given up the job hunt, it said. The trend will have “significant consequences for young people,” as more and more join the ranks of the already unemployed, it said. That has the potential to create a “ ‘lost generation’ comprised of young people who have dropped out of the labor market, having lost all hope of being able to work for a decent living.

***

Data from Eurostat, the European Union [9]’s statistical agency, show Spain had a jobless rate of 40.5 percent in May for people under 25.

Indeed, as I have previously pointed out [10], youth unemployment is also very high in the U.S. And when those who have given up looking for work and those who are underemployed are taken into account (i.e. using the U-6 measure of unemployment), it is clear that the youth of much of the world are suffering Depression-level unemployment.

Food

As many have noted, soaring food prices are also one of the main reasons for the revolts in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya and elsewhere.Nomura pointed out [11] last September:

The World Bank (2009, p.11) estimates that nearly two-thirds of total income
is spent on food in the poor urban population of the developing world. High food prices reduce the ability to meet even basic needs and can lead to increased poverty and become a potential source of protests, riots and political tension ….

Alternet notes [3]:

“Tunisians and Algerians are hungry. The Egyptians and Yemenis are right behind them,” Emirati commentator Mishaal Al Gergawi wrote in the Dubai- based newspaper Gulf News. “Mohammad Bouazizi didn’t set himself on fire because he couldn’t blog or vote. People set themselves on fire because they can’t stand seeing their family wither away slowly, not of sorrow, but of cold stark hunger.”

While Americans spend less than 15 percent of household expenditures on food, Egyptians spend 50%.

As UPI reports [12]:

Just as in Tunisia, the spark was skyrocketing food prices — increasing at a brisk 17 percent annually in Egypt. That’s unhealthy in any economy but particularly one in which, as estimated by the investment house Nomura, on average 50 percent of household expenditures goes toward food. (In the United States, by comparison, food costs represent 14 percent — and falling — of the Consumer Price Index.)For that, Egyptians may in no small way thank the U.S. Federal Reserve and its policies of “quantitative easing” — known by most as “printing money.”

Nomura prepared [11] the following chart showing household spending on food as a percentage of income and per capita GDP (I’ve bolded information on the MENA countries):

Rank Country Nomura’s Food Vulnerability Index (NFVI) GDP per
capita Current prices US$
Household
spending on
food % of total
consumption
Net food
exports
(% of
GDP)
1 Bangladesh 101.5 497 53.8 -3.3
2 Morocco 101.3 2,769 63.0 -2.1
3 Algeria 101.3 4,845 53.0 -2.8
4 Nigeria 101.2 1,370 73.0 -0.9
5 Lebanon 101.2 6,978 34.0 -3.9
6 Egypt 101.0 1,991 48.1 -2.1
7 Sri Lanka 101.0 2,013 39.6 -2.7
8 Sudan 100.9 1,353 52.9 -1.3
9 Hong Kong 100.9 30,863 25.8 -4.4
10 Azerbaijan 100.8 5,315 60.2 -0.6
11 Angola 100.8 4,714 46.1 -1.4
12 Romania 100.7 9,300 49.4 -1.1
13 Philippines 100.7 1,847 45.6 -1.0
14 Kenya 100.7 783 45.8 -0.8
15 Pakistan 100.6 991 47.6 -0.4
16 Libya 100.6 14,802 37.2 -1.7
17 Dominican Rep 100.6 4,576 38.3 -1.1
18 Tunisia 100.5 3,903 36.0 -1.1
19 Bulgaria 100.5 6,546 49.5 -0.1
20 Ukraine 100.5 3,899 61.0 0.9
21 India 100.4 1,017 49.5 0.3
22 China 100.4 3,267 39.8 -0.3
23 Latvia 100.4 14,908 34.3 -1.1
24 Vietnam 100.4 1,051 50.7 0.8
25 Venezuela 100.4 11,246 32.6 -1.0
26 Portugal 100.4 22,923 28.6 -1.8
27 Saudi Arabia 100.3 19,022 25.1 -1.8
28 Kazakhstan 100.3 8,513 44.7 0.1
29 Uzbekistan 100.3 1,023 34.7 -0.3
30 Russia 100.3 11,832 34.4 -0.7
31 Mexico 100.3 10,232 34.0 -0.5
32 Indonesia 100.2 2,246 47.9 1.0
33 Croatia 100.2 15,637 30.1 -0.9
34 Peru 100.2 4,477 31.8 -0.3
35 Greece 100.2 31,670 38.3 -0.7
36 Belarus 100.1 6,230 42.3 0.8
37 Slovenia 100.1 27,019 25.8 -1.3
38 Syria 100.1 2,682 47.9 1.5
39 Turkey 100.1 9,942 35.2 0.2
40 South Korea 100.1 19,115 23.1 -0.9
41 Colombia 100.1 5,416 28.0 0.0
42 South Africa 100.0 5,678 25.0 -0.1
43 Serbia 100.0 6,811 44.8 1.4
44 Czech Republic 100.0 20,673 27.4 -0.4
45 Lithuania 100.0 14,098 41.1 1.1
46 Guatemala 99.9 2,848 37.1 1.3
47 Slovakia 99.9 18,212 22.3 -0.4
48 Poland 99.9 13,845 32.1 0.7
49 Singapore 99.9 37,597 21.9 -1.0
50 Kuwait 99.9 54,260 30.0 -1.1
51 UK 99.8 43,541 22.5 -1.0
52 Israel 99.8 27,652 17.7 -0.5
53 Japan 99.7 38,455 19.8 -0.6
54 Italy 99.7 38,492 22.1 -0.3
55 Thailand 99.6 4,043 39.0 2.7
56 Hungary 99.6 15,408 29.4 1.6
57 Sweden 99.5 51,950 17.4 -0.7
58 Finland 99.5 51,323 20.5 -0.5
59 Germany 99.5 44,446 18.5 -0.3
60 Spain 99.5 35,215 21.8 0.4
61 Austria 99.5 49,599 19.5 -0.3
62 Ecuador 99.5 4,056 30.6 2.5
63 Switzerland 99.5 64,327 24.0 -0.5
64 Malaysia 99.5 8,209 37.1 2.9
65 France 99.5 44,508 22.0 0.2
66 Brazil 99.5 8,205 20.8 1.8
67 United States 99.3 46,350 13.7 0.2
68 Canada 99.3 45,070 18.0 0.6
69 Australia 99.2 47,370 19.7 1.1
70 Belgium 99.2 47,085 15.9 0.9
71 Chile 99.1 10,084 22.5 3.1
72 Ireland 99.1 60,460 25.8 1.5
73 Norway 99.0 94,759 16.9 -0.6
74 Luxembourg 99.0 109,903 19.1 -1.0
75 Costa Rica 98.9 6,564 30.6 4.7
76 Netherlands 98.9 52,963 13.3 1.6`
77 Denmark 98.8 62,118 16.8 1.8
78 Argentina 98.7 8,236 33.4 5.6
79 Uruguay 98.5 9,654 25.3 5.6
80 New Zealand 97.7 30,439 18.8 7.5

As should be noted, there are countries outside of MENA with extremely high percentages of spending on food.


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/02/leading-indicators-of-revolt-in-the-middle-east-and-northern-africa-corruption-unemployment-and-percentage-of-household-money-spent-on-food/

URLs in this post:

[1] Washington’s Blog: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/

[2] list: http://www.economist.com/node/18065663?story_id=18065663

[3] notes: http://www.alternet.org/food/149615/arab_regimes_fear_bread_intifadah

[4] notes: http://www.businessinsider.com/price-of-oil-food-crisis-arab-revolutions-21st-century-arab-awakening-prof-lehmann-imd-2011-2#ixzz1EXo7JHSB

[5] report: http://www.scribd.com/doc/48662769/Nomura-After-Mubarak-What-s-Next-2011-02-11

[6] reported: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/12/business/global/12youth.html

[7] United Nations: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/united_nations/index.html?inline=nyt-org

[8] International Labor Organization: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/i/international_labor_organization/index.html?inline=nyt-org

[9] European Union: http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/european_union/index.html?inline=nyt-org

[10] pointed out: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/10/is-unemployment-as-bad-as-during-great.html

[11] pointed out: http://www.nomura.com/europe/resources/pdf/080910.pdf

[12] reports: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/Outside-View/2011/02/01/Outside-View-In-Egypt-an-uprising-FED-by-inflation/UPI-56571296566922/

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