UltraShort Indices

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By Barry Ritholtz - February 14th, 2011, 10:30AM

I don’t understand why, but I keep seeing portfolios strewn with Ultra-Short inverse funds. These are the ETFs that bet 2X and even 3X that major indices will go down. 20, 30 even 40% of some accounts are laden with these.

Please stop.

Eventually, the downside bet will be a moneymaker. Eventually. But if you make that Macro call even a few Qs early with a leveraged bet, the negative consequences could be severe. As I have frequently suggested, waiting for a technical signal prior to shorting is a much better approach than guessing.

Note that I have no problem with the concept or the use of these – but you must understand the risks and issues of using these very short term instruments. There is lots of slippage relative to the indices they seek to short, meaning lots of tracking error. But that is the technical reason for why these should be used sparingly, or as a hedge, and only for days and weeks — not years.

The more basic question is the foolishness of shorting strong indices running straight up — without any technical or timing signal, it is suicidal to guess when this all comes to an end.

It is one thing to miss opportunity sitting in Treasuries or cash; it is something else entirely to fight the tape, let the trend run you over, and argue with the market.

Unless you have a red “S” on your chest and wear a cape, do not step in front of a speeding locomotives . . .

Dow 36,000 for Bonds!

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By Barry Ritholtz - February 14th, 2011, 9:15AM

James Glassman must be a helluva salesman.

How else can you explain how the co-author of Dow 36,000 was able to convince a publisher to allow him to demonstrate his lack of acumen on a related subject?

After penning what became the classic exemplar of Dot Com excesses — a spectacularly wrong tome about equity valuation that sent Dodd & Graham spinning in their graves  — Glassman has now sharpened his pencil again, casting about for another subject to be just as spectacularly wrong about.

This time, it is bonds.I expect this book to be just as reliable a fade as the last one.

As Jason Zweig observes, even Glassman’s mea culpa was wrong:

“Mr. Glassman may not be exactly right about what he got wrong. His attempts to reconcile his earlier views with today’s realities shed light on a crucially important question: What does it mean to say that an investment is “risky”?”

I have a simpler explanation: Political bias.

Dow 36,000 was co-authored with Kevin Hasset, who now pollutes the pages of Bloomberg with his AEI inspired wingnuttery; Glassman is also an AEI alum, and he will head the George W. Bush Institute. And as I noted last weekend in The Washington Post (Why politics and investing don’t mix), political bias is a surefire way to lose money in the markets.

Glassman’s last book came out when EMH was de rigeur amongst the right leaning cognoscenti; He extrapolated the market rally to infinity — or at least 36k — based upon fundamentally flawed ideology.

And now, with a Socialist/Kenyan/Muslim in the White House, well . . .  draw your own conclusion.

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Source:
How Now, 36,000 Dow? The Ominous Undertone of Rallies
Jason Zweig
WSJ, FEBRUARY 12, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704329104576138271281667798.html

Ferrari FF

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By Barry Ritholtz - February 14th, 2011, 9:00AM

Just in time for Valentine’s Day, Classic Driver brings us these photos of the new AWD Red Ferrari FF (Ferrari Four).

The FF has four seats and four-wheel drive, a 6.3-liter direct-injection 651 horsepower engine with 504 pound-feet of torque. C/Net notes the FF time from zero to 62 mph is 3.7 seconds.

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Middle Eastern response to Friday’s news

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By Peter Boockvar - February 14th, 2011, 8:22AM

Responding for the 1st time to the news on Friday that Egypt’s Pres would step down immediately and not wait until the Sept elections, Commercial Int’l Bank Egypt, the biggest component of the Egyptian stock market, is up 5.6% in London trading but is just back to the level of one week ago. Orascom Construction, the 2nd biggest, is up 4.0% and is also back to its level of early last week. Other markets in the region were mixed as Jordan is down 1.4%, Saudi Arabia down .1%, Israel up .1% and Tunisia is down by 1%. Asian markets however were up solidly with China in particular rising to near a 2 month high after Jan export and import growth were both well above expectations. Japan’s Q4 GDP didn’t fall as much as expected but follows a downward revision in Q3. The Portuguese 10 yr yield is back to the highs and its spread to the Bund is at a one month high.

Traders, Guns & Money

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By Barry Ritholtz - February 14th, 2011, 8:00AM

Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and unknowns in the dazzling world of derivatives by Satyajit Das>

Long before the 2008-09 credit crisis and collapse, one of the strongest warnings about the dangers of derivatives came from Satyajit Das.

I am about halfway thru, and I can tell you it reads more like a crime novel  than a financial book.

Reviews

“Traders, Guns & Money is very fresh history, just two years old. Das picks apart the new machinery of the mega-trillion-dollar derivatives market, the one economists say might be next to collapse on our heads. And I’m with him, I really am. The guy has a thing for ridiculous puns and also for pitiable characters. We meet a couple of noodle makers who wreck their company on a deal no one but Das seems to understand. But by the end of his book, you’ll get the deal too, I promise.” – All Things Considered, NPR, October 15, 2008

“WHETHER you are an investor, an observer of financial markets, or even an investment professional, Satyajit Das’s Traders, Guns & Money should prove an entertaining, eye-opening read. –The Business Times, Singapore, September 27, 2008

“With the financial crisis tightening its chokehold on global banks, Das’ forewarnings – outlined in his 2006 book Traders, Guns & Money: Knowns and Unknowns in the Dazzling World of Derivatives – are looking rather timely. Still, some in the industry initially scoffed at his warnings.” – The Toronto Star, September 23, 2008

“The sexier side of finance … at last … a convincing picture of what life is like in today’s modern financial industry. Traders Guns and Money by Satyajit Das not only has a catchy title, it actually manages to entertain, educate and inform.”  Corporate Financier, July 2006

“A must read for all CEOs, CFOs, Bankers and anyone who cares about what banks are doing with their money.” – Finance Asia, May 2006

“… true rarity: a derivatives book that keeps your attention all the way through. ” FOW April 2006

“… a scalpel of a book” – Financial Engineering News, July 2006

“A distincly timely book… This makes fascinating reading…. A good crib sheet for how the whole derivatives game works. ” – Financial Times, May 2006

“Das is especially good on structured products and on the recently fashionable world of structured credit… a diverting read” – Financial World, July 2006

“a worthwhile read for anyone with connection to the financial world” – World Finance, July 2006

“The murky and complex world of finances and derivatives is scrupulously and frantically told in this brilliant narrative. … This is a collection and recollection of exquisite financial tales well worth your time.’ Convergence, September 2006

“…a fascinating and compelling insight into the world of derivatives… [TGM has] a page turning quality more reminiscent of a John Grisham novel than a dissertation on derivatives.” – FINASIA, October 2006

“An absorbing accessible primer… scoots along at a blistering pace” – Wilmott Magazine, December 2006

“part thriller, part expose… will be useful for anyone with connection to finance…will tell you some of the truth of what really does go on.” Society of Business Economists Book Review – Jan 07

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NPR Interview:

If the flash audio fails to load, go here

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Chapter 2 after the jump

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The Dangle: Illusory Promises of Content Farms

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By Barry Ritholtz - February 14th, 2011, 7:15AM

“The funny thing about all these frothy millions and billions piling up? Most of the value was created by people working free.”

-David Carr, writing about HuffPo, Twitter, and Facebook

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I have been meaning to address this issue for some time; It started with Seeking Alpha, then moved to RGE and Business Insider, before ending with my rejections to offers from Huffington Post and The Daily Beast. All are firms whose business model is to sell advertising on farmed content acquired for free (or nearly free). Carr’s article this morning — At Media Companies, a Nation of Serfs — finally forced me to publish my thoughts.

Over the past few years, numerous content sites have requested permission to rerun my original work. I have experimented with Seeking Alpha, Business Insider and RGE. In my experience (which could differ from yours) the benefits were de minimus.

Based on those experiences, I have said “Thanks, but no thanks” to requests from the Daily Beast and Huffington Post; I recently stopped publishing at Business Insider. And my experiences with Seeking Alpha were less than stellar, I stopped republishing content there several years ago.

Why? Because these are for profit businesses, and as such, they seek to make a return on investment. They have convinced numerous professional Venture Capitalists to give them substantial piles of cash, with the promise they will seek an exit strategy — buyout or public offering — to generate a return for their equity investors and themselves — but not for their outside contributors.

You would not volunteer to work for free as a greeter at Wal-Mart, a Barista at Starbucks or a fry cook at McDonalds — so why should you do so for free at these content sites?

The short answer is The Dangle: A promise of rewards in the future for work performed now.

Ahhh, the dangle. In my career on Wall Street, I have discovered the dangle to be an effective way to get something for nothing from some sucker. It is a way for someone with the appearance of power and money to obtain goods and services for free, for a mere promise of future benefits. Early in my career, I fell for the dangle. No more.

In the present discussion, consider these various dangles made by content factories to me over the years:

1) You will get traffic back from the content site;
2) You’re building an audience;
3) You are enhancing your own personal brand;
4) You will raise your Google Page Rank
5) You are developing a reputation

In my experience, all of these were untrue.

Note that most of these promises are rather difficult to measure (except traffic) and all of these are even more difficult to attribute back to the content aggregator. In reality, these promise are illusory, the benefits IMHO never accrue to the blogger.

Do the math: I used to contribute to TheStreet.com (on a paid basis). But as the site got more popular, the columns got lost in a sea of words. Being part of a community was lost as TSCM scaled; I found a more immediate and useful community around the Big Picture.  What is worse, the various aggregator sites have become so busy that to be seen or heard, one must scream — outrageous claims and ridiculous headlines — not outstanding content — are what garner page views there. No thanks.

About now, someone is typing an email saying “Hey Ritholtz, you have other people’s content in the Think Tank — aren’t you being a hypocrite?

Actually, no. The Think Tank contributors are market professionals. They are friends and colleagues who already have a brand and reputation. And, these folks are financially independent. For the most part, they publish to Wall Street, not the public, and the Think Tank was originally conceived as a way to inject their ideas into the broader public debate. More importantly, the Think Tank is curated, meaning two or three pieces get published most days; not untold 100s.

If you currently “donate” your content to an aggregator, I suggest you should ask yourself the following questions:

1) Am I giving away content to a firm that received VC funding? What is their potential upside? What is mine?

2) Has the Dangle been met? Have the promises of benefits made to me occurred? I seeing substantial Traffic increase?

3) When I search for my own content on Google, is my site ranked below my own content republished by aggregators?

4) Is any enhancement to my  brand or professional reputation coming from the aggregator’s site?

5) What benefits, if any, are accruing from republished content?

As I said, I did the math, You should as well.

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Source:
At Media Companies, a Nation of Serfs
DAVID CARR
NYT February 13, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/14/business/media/14carr.html

Short Memories

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By Invictus - February 14th, 2011, 6:00AM

Then:

In March 2000, the very month that the dot-com bubble burst, Merrill Lynch launched its Internet Strategies Fund. Talk about dismal timing. “People thought that somehow the Internet boom was going to go on forever,” says Russel Kinnel, Morningstar’s director of mutual fund research. The fund lasted only a year before closing its doors.

Now:

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., riding the wave of investor interest in fast-growing, privately held technology firms such as Facebook Inc. and Twitter Inc., plans to start a fund that would invest in Internet and digital-media companies, people familiar with the matter said.

The planned investment fund, run from the New York company’s asset-management unit, is expected to raise between $500 million and $750 million, these people said. Marketing materials were sent to prospective investors starting about two weeks ago.

Has the shark been jumped, as has been alluded to more than once?  When you (again) start hearing about “page views,” “eyeballs,” and the like, run for the hills.

Wayne Rooney Goal (Bicycle Kick)

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By Barry Ritholtz - February 13th, 2011, 9:08PM

Manchester Derby February 12, 2011

Amazing Goal of Wayne Rooney vs Manchester City in Barclays Premier League.
ManU – ManCity: 2-1

Third time’s a charm — This is the official broadcast, and should stick around

<a href="http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&#038;brand=foxsports&#038;from=foxsports_en-us_videocentral&#038;vid=d0c22342-6f41-4bd7-938c-d5f9a31eb7e8&#038;src=FLCP:sharebar:embed" target="_new" title="Rooney's Bicycle Kick from all angles">Video: Rooney&#8217;s Bicycle Kick from all angles</a>

FDIC Bank Closings

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By Barry Ritholtz - February 13th, 2011, 4:48PM

Via Ron Griess of The Chart Store comes our weekly look at FDIC activities:

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100 Most Respected Companies

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By Barry Ritholtz - February 13th, 2011, 11:30AM

From Barron’s, comes their annual list of the most respected global companies — but for JPM (14), there are no US financials in the top 40.

Canadian banks Toronto-Dominion Bank (29) and Royal Bank of Canada (34)

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click for full list

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Source:
…And the Award Goes to Apple!
VITO J. RACANELLI
Barron’s, FEBRUARY 12, 2011
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203926004576132221890378628.html

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