Thursday Reads
By Barry Ritholtz - February 17th, 2011, 4:30PM
• Stocks: fastest double ever (Fortune) The fastest 2X that hasn’t given it all back, anyway
• S&P 500 Cash Hoards Shrink for First Time Since 2009 (Bloomberg)
• Victor Shih on the Chinese Economy (Browser)
• Empirical Evidence About How the Foreclosure Crisis is Impacting the Recovery (Rorty Bomb)
• Fed Tells U.S. Banks to Test Capital for Recession (Bloomberg)
• Its all about the LTV – Banks Push Home Buyers to Put Down More Cash (WSJ)
• SAC Capital’s Cohen Opens Up (Dealbook)
• How the middle class became the underclass (CNN/Money)
• Hey, liberals: Time to give the Beck bashing a rest (Salon)
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February 17th, 2011 at 5:37 pm
Philadelphia homeowner forecloses on local Wells Fargo branch.
http://articles.philly.com/2011-02-15/business/28536236_1_mortgage-fees-full-replacement-value-default-judgment
February 17th, 2011 at 5:39 pm
my impression-
Beck’s laughing all the way to the bank. I’m not too sure he even takes himself seriously (could his “outlandish” claims be a joke- to see just how far people will buy what he says?). Could it all be shtick? ( like Joaquin Phoenix’s mad career change to a rapper- that he carried on for a year a two- only to find it was basically a stunt to make the mockumentary “Im Still Here”)-
but maybe, he’s just a bit daft . . .
February 17th, 2011 at 6:14 pm
@ahab
Telling people what they want to hear, and being rewarded handsomely for it, is as old as time itself. I wonder who the guy was who first decided to tell people that he could slaughter a goat and see the future in its entrails. He’s gotta be rich as hell by now!
February 17th, 2011 at 6:23 pm
andy kessler’s piece in today’s WSJ (a19) “Is Your Job an Endangered Species?” is apropo and hits very close to home. it essentially says technology is eating jobs and far more fields, professional included, are much more susceptible than you may think … he’s right.
February 17th, 2011 at 6:25 pm
f411-
I wish people would pay me for my shtick-
all I ever get is BR threatening me with exile. Where’s the love?
February 17th, 2011 at 6:37 pm
Gold 4fer
World Gold Council: Global Gold Demand Hit 10-Year High In 2010
More proof that when prices go up demand doesn’t necessarily go down
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110217AS_WGC_leadstory.html
World Gold Supply Climbed 2% During 2010
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110217AS_WGC_No1.html
2010 First Full Year That Central Banks Were Net Buyers Of Gold In Two Decades
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110217AS_WGC_No2.html
A Chinese Gold Standard?
NEW YORK (TheStreet ) — China’s grab for gold is accelerating at a rapid pace, and it’s raising questions about the country’s ultimate intentions.
China consumed 175.2 tons of gold in the fourth-quarter of 2010, bringing its grand total for the year to 579.5 tons, or 18.5 million ounces, according to the World Gold Council.
That’s a lot of gold. The U.S., in comparison, bought 233.3 tons.
It’s unknown how much of that gold was consumed by citizens or its central bank, but the question still remains — What will China do with all that gold?
There is a controversial theory percolating in the gold community that China wants the yuan to become the world’s reserve currency and is buying gold and silver in order to do it.
A Chinese gold standard?
more….
via http://www.thestreet.com/story/11009124/1/a-chinese-gold-standard.html
February 17th, 2011 at 6:50 pm
I feel like I’m in the twilight zone every time I see an article marveling over how fast the market bounced back. Does it not matter that our government essentially became the largest buyer of the stock market? And that for every dollar that pushed the market up the country went deeper into debt?
When all our taxes go up to pay for this debt, and our wealth begins to disappear from inflation, will they then make the connection? Or will they still not mention it? I just hope I can attach a note to my 2012 taxes explaining that I wasn’t an advocate of QE1 or QE2 so I don’t think my taxes should be any higher. INSANE.
February 17th, 2011 at 7:07 pm
RE Salon piece: when I read that article yesterday I was struck by the fact that every story underneath it was a “Beck Gone Wild” story… I think the author was pointing directly at the other writers at Salon.
I’m torn about the message. On one hand, I stopped watching Rachel Maddow because -while I like and respect her style, class and intelligence, she seemed too preoccupied with Palin, Bachman, and the assorted looneys of the extreme right. What I REALLY wanted to hear is what the center-left has to offer instead of the constant message of “at least we’re not looney.”
OTOH, focus on the Becks of the world just makes politicians on the left appear tolerable by comparison. I always swore that the Democratic party couldn’t organize its way out of a paper bag… maybe Beck-bashing is the ONE organized thing it can accomplish.
February 17th, 2011 at 7:18 pm
Lind’s column is absurd. Palin is a presidential contender. Bachmann is in the House. These nuts have real power.
By mocking the anti-science, anti-data, anti-intellectual philosophy of these leaders of the Right, the Center sees that the Right’s ideology is bankrupt and their arguments are flawed. Elections swing on small changes in the attitudes of the Center. You may not have the ability to change the thinking of the simple-minded Rush and Beck listeners. In our republic you need 51% (save the Senate.)
Lind assumes airwaves are a limited thing. Lind assumes repeating the message won’t work. Lind assumes others won’t follow as leaders of these kooks if the forward thinking people everywhere don’t humiliate them, over and over, making their private social life a wasteland of their moronic followers.
It’s our responsibility – in a culture with a Free Press and no Fairness Doctrine – to lay it on them, hard.
February 17th, 2011 at 7:55 pm
Rachel Maddow . . .I like and respect her style, class and intelligence . . .
she’s a tool for the Democrat party . . .period. Where did all the outrage go? Why is their no indignation and lambasting of the president who has continued Bush policies? Reason: Obama is a Democrat .
“in a culture with a Free Press and no Fairness Doctrine”
well- we do have state sponsored PBS . . .they’re pretty fair . . .no slant there . . .chuckle, chuckle
also- why is it people on the left are so outratged that someone on the right has a platform from which to speak?
possibly some decent re-education camps will get them onboard about the appropriate messages they can ply over the airways . . .
February 17th, 2011 at 8:02 pm
Here’s something of potential interest: the death of the music industry and chart porn all in one at
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-music-industry-sales-2011-2
(ht Brad DeLong)
February 17th, 2011 at 8:02 pm
replace F&F?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/our-response-to-the-center-for-american-progress-objection-to-our-post-on-its-gse-reform-proposal.html
boeing’s big crash?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/02/boeings-multi-billion-outsourcing-fiasco.html
derivative industry reports…just so much hot air?
http://baselinescenario.com/2011/02/15/derivatives-industry-report-collapses/
does the stock market mean any thing to real people any more?
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/02/15/what-the-decline-of-stocks-means-for-you/
February 17th, 2011 at 8:04 pm
if your unemployed, you may stay that even if you want a job and are looking. employers don’t want you
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2014248693_jobless17.html?syndication=rss
February 17th, 2011 at 8:06 pm
iraqi war….waste of time?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/17/curveball-doubts-cia-german-foreign
February 17th, 2011 at 8:35 pm
what jobs? do tech companies actually do that any more?
http://www.noahbrier.com/archives/2011/02/what_jobs.php
February 17th, 2011 at 8:39 pm
saving for retirement? only if you start out early (say early 20s) and do it continuously every year without fail. and if you are lucky you might get enough interest on that to retire. maybe
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/02/17/the-false-promise-of-compound-interest/
February 17th, 2011 at 8:54 pm
oh no OCC is threatening the mortgage servicers. probably with a large
fluffy pillow??
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41640920/ns/business-real_estate/
February 17th, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Ahab: I never said she WASN’T a mouthpiece for the Democratic party. I can still like her, just like I kinda like some of the Republican mouthpieces, as long as they’re respectful and articulate and add something to the public discourse.
I’m well aware of who I’m watching, what their biases are, and what to believe or not. The qualities I cited about her are still admirable.
February 17th, 2011 at 10:03 pm
What MorticiaA said. Public discourse is damaged when source alone is the object of critique (this is the heart of ad hominem) and the fact that analysis and critique of Republican propaganda outlets such as Fox is given less credence in comparison is itself an indictment.
How many conservatives are willing to admit that what they are watching is mostly crap: That’s the more interesting question in an era where so little ‘liberal media’ remains.
February 17th, 2011 at 10:15 pm
RW I checked your Recorded Music Death Chart .. gotta say the best music I have – was created in a $4B time period – we’re at $8B now – I don’t know why there was a spike to $15B in yr2000 – Prince could not have done that with Party Like Its 1999
On the thread debate of Rachel Maddow & Larry Kudlow – 2 polar opposites – I listen to both too – to figure out who’s the enemy and who’s the friend with a million shades inbetween (and outside) .. but as VeDa pointed out – (& as WI is finding out) 51% takes the gameboard over (thats crappy)
February 17th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
“How many conservatives are willing to admit that what they are watching is mostly crap”
that’s funny- it’s like saying how many preteen girl’s listening to Justin Bieber will admit it’s mostly crap-
as much as I tell them so . . .they still seem to enjoy his singing- go figure . . .
Morticia-
valid points . . .
February 17th, 2011 at 11:47 pm
‘Fastest double ever’ — based on the S&P 500 back to its introduction in 1957, says the article.
However, S&P started maintaining stock averages in 1923, starting with a 233-stock average which covered most of the large caps. So it wasn’t that different than today’s S&P 500, and in fact has been grafted onto it to make a continuous series. Dr. Robert Shiller’s spreadsheet shows monthly averages of it.
According to Dr. Schiller’s spreadsheet, the earlier version of the S&P rose 118% from June 1932 to July 1932. And that’s using monthly averages. That was the fastest rate of rise in the records going back to 1871.
Doubling in two years (Mar. 2009 to Feb. 2011) is the second-fastest rate of rise on record. Extend the criterion to doubling in three years, and several examples turn up, including 1926-1929 and 1984-1987.
February 17th, 2011 at 11:48 pm
Sorry — should be ‘June 1932 to June 1933,’ in above comment.
February 18th, 2011 at 1:14 am
someone pointed out in days past here @TBP .. S&P500 vs. the S&P233 .. your industry not mine .. Kodak’s not there now – and 1923 not sure either .. no matter to me – Kodak was BIG in my life .. now / those chippers … ya’all just thank me for hangin in there .. your welcome
February 18th, 2011 at 6:06 am
That joker at Salon is right, of course. We all need to just ignore the clowns. It’s actually quite important. The very best thing to do is nothing more than post videos of exactly what they say, exactly as they say it – without any comment at all.
But to otherwise completely ignore, for all the reasons listed. Pointing out that someone is crazy is always either redundant or dangerous. Sometimes both.