Media Appearance: CNBC Fast Money (3.1.11)
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Special Market Correction Edition!
Tonight I will be on Fast Money on CNBC at 5:00 pm discussing the market correction and what it might mean:
• S&P is up 28% from August to February, a blistering, unsustainable pace;
• We are giving the market the benefit of the doubt — this looks like a correction, not the end of the rally to us;
• We have sold our winners like Cenovus and Suncor (SU, CVE), and the NYSE Exchange (NYX) on merger news; we also dumped other names that were losers for us: American Greetings (AM), Eastman Kodak (EK)
• We have bought consumer names like Dell (cheap at 11.5 P/E; if it gets thru $17.50, the next target is $25), Hershey as it broke thru October’s highs (HSY) and CBOE (after we sold NYX on the merger)
5 Reasons why we are giving the market the benefit of the doubt:
1. Sentiment: % of Bulls moderates, this is encouraging
2. Technical: S&P 500 and NASDAQ has good support at the 40 & 50 day moving averages
3. Energy: Recent Crude weakness should not be misread as economy weakening
4. Emerging Markets: Hang Sang Index stabilizing
5. Economic: US Unemployment continues to trend in right direction
~~~
Video posted here.
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March 1st, 2011 at 4:47 pm
Becareful Barry. Those guys were schooled by Peter Schiff yesterday. After he was disconnected, they discounted everything he said without him to defend himself and CORRECT THEM AGAIN.
If they agree with you, they let you speak…..if not….
March 1st, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Has not Hersey moved it’s production to Mexico, along with a chocolate formula change?
Tastes more like plastic.
March 1st, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Has not Hersey moved it’s production to Mexico, along with a chocolate formula change?
Tastes more like plastic.
March 1st, 2011 at 6:36 pm
Good to see that you unloaded Eastman Kodak.
I am not sure what it is, but there seems to be something inherently wrong over at EK since at least the 1980′s. They tried moving into videotape in both the professional and consumer markets and failed in both. Then they made a move into batteries (on the theory that cameras used both film and batteries) – and that business failed as well.
For the last several years they have burned through a lot of capital transitioning to digital cameras, but unfortunately, that has been ill-timed as well, since the smartphone is killing the mass-market consumer camera – the very market where Kodak was once king.
The stand-alone image-dedicated camera is on the road to becoming a lower-volume professional and high-end hobbyist item – the traditional purview of the Japanese.
March 1st, 2011 at 7:49 pm
Disagree entirely with the last 3 points:
“3. Energy: Recent Crude weakness should not be misread as economy weakening”
Every penny increase above and beyond wage increases removes profits from companies or purchasing power from consumers.
4. Emerging Markets: Hang Sang Index stabilizing
“China’s bubble is getting tired already and people there can’t keep up with asset prices. It will burst sooner than most people think.”
5. Economic: US Unemployment continues to trend in right direction
“Actually – labor participation is tanking hard. The jobs we’re adding aren’t even keeping up with population increases much less recovering the millions of jobs lost during the precursor to the Greater Depression *yet to come).
March 1st, 2011 at 8:06 pm
Small cap oil growth–USEG, EQU, PETEF
March 1st, 2011 at 8:24 pm
Once the psydonumbers start sounding like fraud then what happens? Is the bottom of the fifth here? Is it too late to pray for rain? Barry, are you saying that the emerging markets are finally going to really carry the whole load?
March 1st, 2011 at 10:23 pm
JimRino, could you actually taste the recipe change? Ugh…I haven’t eaten any Hershey’s lately — guess that’s not about to change now.
I fear eating any food any longer without knowing the country of origin and without trusting the company (e.g., Whole Foods, Trader Joe’s, “etc.”) making the claim.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12582056
And I don’t eat seafood at a restaurant unless the species flat-out can’t be found in the GOM, no matter where the restaurant says they source it.
March 1st, 2011 at 10:23 pm
Barry…you may have missed the ultimate sell sign while you are on vacation…time to go all in short signal. Luskin is back to his arrogant ways on Kudlow just as he was when the dow was 14,000 and he was saying to buy and when the dow was 7000 he was saying to sell. He is now letting everyone know it is time to buy and there are no risks in the market. It may be time to look for the 3x leverage shorts.
March 2nd, 2011 at 12:19 am
Good profit capture on SU and thanks for the heads up, both in and out. I’m going to stay in a build a stake while trading it some. The stock has nice volatility and I’m holding for the long term. I’ve been pondering some deep otm puts for insurance
March 2nd, 2011 at 1:50 am
read this tonight in response to Bernanke’s warning about deficit spending:
Americans will change when they feel the heat…
It would be easier if they changed when they see the light…
March 2nd, 2011 at 7:21 am
Looks like you left out the 200 pound Gorilla: The Bernank’s money printing. Since the famous speech in August and the opening of the monetary floodgates, monetary assets have increased and perhaps are due for a pullback….particularly as the QE2 end date looms….without further money printing a pullback is sure to happen, perhaps similar to last year….
Also, Hong Kong is an ‘emerging market’?
The only thing HK needs to emerge from is the dollar peg….Amazingly, the HK infrastructure such as roads, bridges, underground trains are all in far better condition and work better in HK than say in NY….NY is looking more like Brazil than HK…
March 2nd, 2011 at 8:04 am
One key indicator left out of this list – fixed income lending indicators – high yield issuance has snapped back, yields are significantly lower, and there has been relaxation of lending standards. Yes this is due to real and anticipated improvement in the economic environment and outlook, however, this could be another manifestation of QE2….
March 2nd, 2011 at 9:56 am
You invited ignorant comment so here goes.. I view the markets as being at an inflection point.
We have ended the bounce-back from the 3/09 bottom and have overshot somewhat. Now 1. profit beats are diminishing and forward views are becoming less enthusiastic. 2. productivity gains are dwindling, 3. unemployment continues and gains are about to be offset by government (the largest employer overall) cutting beginning with their upcoming fiscal years, 4. overseas uncertainty including oil “tax” and China, 5. continued drag due to absence of housing and general construction employment/expenditures, 6. end of quantitative easing and the political inability to generate QE3 as well as the end of de facto stimulative deficits on the state and local level (underfunding pensions, etc.), 7. lingering financial problems in the Eurozone, 8 weakening consumer sentiment that has yet to reflect the impact of government cuts or energy costs.
A lot of negatives that may slow, if not practically stop the rebound. Eventually.
March 2nd, 2011 at 9:59 am
Hang Sang stabilizing – did you just jinx that one too. Barry go on vac….. hmmm, never mind.
March 2nd, 2011 at 2:36 pm
People might be angry, vitrolic even that Obama will be seen s an inspiring leader who’s subetext is that the GOP doesn’t want the US to have the best gov’t in the world.
The fact is everyone will begin to make this connection, and Obama’s second term is a shoo-in…
“…THE OBAMA FACTOR Americans have never fully appreciated what a radical thing we did — in the eyes of the rest of the world — in electing an African-American with the middle name Hussein as president. I’m convinced that listening to Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech — not the words, but the man — were more than a few young Arabs who were saying to themselves: “Hmmm, let’s see. He’s young. I’m young. He’s dark-skinned. I’m dark-skinned. His middle name is Hussein. My name is Hussein. His grandfather is a Muslim. My grandfather is a Muslim. He is president of the United States. And I’m an unemployed young Arab with no vote and no voice in my future.” I’d put that in my mix of forces fueling these revolts…”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/opinion/02friedman.html?src=me&ref=general
…and will raise their taxes up to those old Clinton rates. While good for America, our economy and our place in the world, the people who think they can have the best gov’t without paying for it, are angry about it.
March 2nd, 2011 at 6:38 pm
Hey BR did you catch this guy? He found no proof, but he found proof that it could of happened. Classic.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000008152&play=1