These are my new favorite charts on the Employment cycle.
They show the post War World II recession and recoveries, relative to the highest month of employment.
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(1945, 48, 53, 57, 60, 73, 80, 81 2001 and 07)
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Money is power, & you ought to be reasonably ambitious to have it." —Russell H. Conwell, Temple Univ, 1877
"It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine" say the French as consumer confidence in May rose to the highest since Nov '10 as they welcome and get excited about new Pres Hollande. Also, the French 10 yr bond yield touched the lowest on record this morning. June consumer confidence in Germany held at 5.7, just .2 pts off the highest since Mar '11. To the euro bond debate which is now taking on greater rhetoric with those with high bond yields wanting them and those with low ones saying no way, ECB member...
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March 7th, 2011 at 12:51 pm
I know I’m pushin it .. but is the next supercycle the ramp up to pop 12B or after pop 3B ?
March 7th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
As is clear, this is a more protracted version of 2001 and a much more protracted version of 1990. This isn’t your father’s recession. It’s your great grandfather’s recession, the proximate cause of which was the financial sector, like those in 1990 and 2001.
March 7th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Are you convinced yet that using any previous post-WWII experience as an analog for the the current state of affairs is a bad idea?
March 7th, 2011 at 1:33 pm
This is the new “economy”. What is to stop the United States from becoming a welfare state following the next crisis in unemployment? There is virtually zero chance that we will achieve full employment (as per my defiinition of U6 6%) before the next downturn.
March 7th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Maybe farm payrolls are picking up the slack.
March 7th, 2011 at 2:19 pm
oh, yeah . . .
. . . moo.
March 7th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
So it IS different this time….
March 7th, 2011 at 6:42 pm
I have been saying for quite some time now thaty the @propriate set for comparisons is not post WW2 recessions, but post crdit crisis collapses…
March 7th, 2011 at 6:42 pm
If O’B wants to be a 2 term prez he needs to take out Kadaffi pronto and give the House of Saud all the support they can possibly use to avoid a $4/5/10 gas scenario. A little time spent in $4 territory makes a double dip great recession a certainty. $5 or higher will vaporize all the stimuli and Gentle Ben’s gaming of the securities markets and dump us into a depression with hyperinflation as icing on top!
March 7th, 2011 at 8:04 pm
Irrelevant……it’s now all about oil….quick Germanic will now use to grease skids for QE 3
March 7th, 2011 at 9:18 pm
The Audacity Of … unemployment!
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March 8th, 2011 at 1:54 am
Barry: I agree that comparing recovery from normal recessions to financial crises is problematic, but I do think there are structural factors that have shaped the ’07, ’01, and ’90 with a far more horizontal slope than the other predecessors. I really wonder what the 2nd graph would look like with ’01 and ’90 removed. I suspect you’d see a substantially more vertical arc for the Previous Cycles.