Today’s Nonfarm payroll employment report showed an increase by an above consensus 216,000 in March.
This was a decent number, a step showing marginal improvement. But as per our earlier discussion, the change in March’s net employment was about 0.1%; the upside surprise was about 10% higher than consensus. In other words, the entire employment difference between forecast estimates and actual release was 0.01% of total employment.
Put that way, its hard to get terribly excited one way or another.
Let’s take a closer look at the April Fools release:
• Unemployed persons total 13.5 million; Since November 2010, the jobless rate has declined from 9.8% to 8.8% — a full percentage point.
• Unemployed is now at the lowest level since March 2009
• Gains were in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and mining. Employment in manufacturing continued to trend up.
• Construction and Government employment continues to be weak
• Average hourly earnings were flat ($22.87). Year-over-year, earnings were up 1.7%, still lagging the 2.2% CPI year-over-year increase
• Temporary-help services rose by 29,000.
• Average workweek for all employees was unchanged at 34.3 hours
• Long-term unemployed (27+ weeks) was 6.1 million, an increase in their percentage of unemployed from 43.9 to 45.5%
• Labor force participation rate (64.2%) and employment-population ratio (58.5%) were flat.
• Revisions were modest, but positive
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.