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Inconvenient Numbers? Change ‘em.

Posted By Invictus On April 6, 2011 @ 6:13 pm In Current Affairs,Economy,Employment,Taxes and Policy | Comments Disabled

Well, just like that, with this blog post [1], Heritage has now changed its forecast for the unemployment rate under the Ryan budget.

The new numbers are linked to in the post — the PDF is here [2].

[3]

An interesting 24-hour period, to be sure.

Adding: Heritage went out of its way (here) [4] to defend its methodology — strongly implying to me that they saw no reason to change it.  Yet change it they did.

We used the same economic model that is employed by leading government agencies (Energy, Treasury, Labor, Office of Management and Budget) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The model is the Global Insight U.S. Macroeconomic Model, which has been in widespread use among government agencies and Fortune 500 companies for over 40 years. Its commercial success is a measure of its award-winning accuracy.

Someone capture that page before it, too, makes its way down the memory hole.  This smells just a bit scandalous.


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/inconvenient-numbers-change-em/

URLs in this post:

[1] this blog post: http://blog.heritage.org/2011/04/06/heritage-updates-ryan-budget-estimate/

[2] here: http://blog.heritage.org/wp-content/uploads/NewUnemploymentRateEstimates.pdf

[3] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/ryan-updated-unrate.png

[4] here): http://blog.heritage.org/2011/04/05/ryan-budget-critics-incorrectly-attack-heritage-analysis/

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