I have been meaning to get to this since last week — the numbers are pretty fantastic.

From LPS’ First Look/Mortgage Monitor:

• Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: 8.8%
• Total U.S. foreclosure inventory rate: 4.15%
• Total U.S. non-current inventory: 6,856,000
• States with most non-current loans: Florida, Nevada, Mississippi, New Jersey, Georgia
• States with fewest non-current loans: Montana, Wyoming, Alaska, South Dakota, North Dakota

The LPS report also noted that “February’s data also showed a 23 percent increase in Option ARM foreclosures over the last six months, far more than any other product type. In terms of absolute numbers, Option ARM foreclosures stand at 18.8 percent, a higher level than Subprime foreclosures ever reached.”

Amazing.

Category: Foreclosures

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

16 Responses to “LPS Foreclosure Data”

  1. BennyProfane says:

    What’s even more amazing are the predictions of a bottom very soon and a quick bounce right after. I try to write down the sources of those predictions for future reference.

  2. wally says:

    “In terms of absolute numbers, Option ARM foreclosures stand at 18.8 percent, a higher level than Subprime foreclosures ever reached.”

    In terms of percent, does that mean?
    If so, it should put a final end to the description of the housing bust as a ‘subprime’ issue.

  3. louiswi says:

    Are you saying 91.2% of the mortgages out there are current? Further, are you saying 95.85% of homes are not in foreclosure? I also read recently that 50% of homes in the U.S. are owned out right free and clear. If all this is true, it looks like the whole affair amounts to a tempest in a teapot. Don’t you suppose?

  4. wannabe says:

    louiswi asked: “Are you saying 91.2% of the mortgages out there are current?”

    No, (before I even look at the data) that’s just Option ARMs, Adjustable Rate Mortgages. The vast majority of American mortgages are 30-Year Fixed Rate mortgages.

  5. wannabe says:

    louiswi, I guess I should have looked at the data. Yes. You are right.

    “Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: 8.8 percent ” = 91.2% mortgages are alright. Makes sense to me.

    Can you just delete both of these comments? lol.

  6. BennyProfane says:

    Try selling your home and get back to us on that one, louisi.

  7. socaljoe says:

    It looks to me like we’ve made a 30 year low in mortgage rates. Are we at the beginning of a multi-decade rise in rates? Can’t be good for home prices… unless you’re a buyer.

  8. Keith Jurow says:

    Although LPS’s data is good and I’ve cited it several times in my housing market articles, you need to be very careful in reading the delinquency data. Most readers have been fooled by the seeming decline in the seriously delinquent stats put out by LPS and the MBA. As I will be clarifying in my new Housing Market Report, HOPE NOW, a coalition of mortgage services, investors, non-profit counselors and mortgage insurers, reported that a record 1.76 million mortgage modifications (HAMP as well as proprietary) were completed in 2010. What is not understood is that most of these were not HAMP permanent modifications. They were mods done by the banks on their own.

    HAMP mods when they become permanent are no longer considered delinquent and convert to current status. Mods done by the servicing banks have no trial period and are immediately considered current. Without all these mods converting delinquent loans to “current” status, the delinquency rate would have continued to climb last year. You need to keep this in mind before you take the so-called decline in delinquency to mean that the housing debacle is abating. No way. It’s going to get ugly this year and next.

  9. louiswi says:

    Benny,

    The need for shelter seems basic. The thought of selling my home has never crossed my mind. The data seems to suggest the majority is with me.

  10. jsky says:

    What does “normal” look like?
    As a comparison, can someone provide details on what normal or healthy would look like? Thanks.
    • Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: ____
    • Total U.S. foreclosure inventory rate: _____
    • Total U.S. non-current inventory: ______

  11. rktbrkr says:

    HAMP mods have a high refailure rate so these all kind of add up to 8M foreclosures I’ve seen quoted a couple places.

    I tried to find the annual REO sales numbers for the past few years, just curious how quickly the banks are clearing their growing inventories. Does anyone have those numbers? Not sure if the foreclosure numbers above include all the shadow inventory.

    If/when the banks try to clear their inventories that could have a significant (as in “collapse”) affect on prices.

    I’ve never seen a clear statement why the shadow inventories were growing even before the various foreclosure freezes and MERS disclosures but I suspect the banks knew they didn’t have clear titles and were deer caught in the headlight. Now the headlights are brighter.

    If the banks have to sell millions of foreclosed homes in a semi hurry without clear titles I guess home prices will go in a free fall, all cash purchases will be a requirement without title insurance available.

  12. BennyProfane says:

    louiswi

    Well, then, I guess that’s going to be a problem for your heirs, just like the millions of Boomers who can’t or won’t move until the end.

  13. jeff in indy says:

    i believe the option arm’s typically begin recasting the neg-am principal in year 5. seems like yesterday, doesn’t it…

  14. Keith Jurow says:

    rktbrkr,

    Really hard to find annual REO sales figures. For Fannie Mae, go to their annual report. In 2010, they claim to have sold 185,744 properties, but that seems high to me. I do know that both Fannie and HUD are trying hard to unload lots of their inventory. I discuss this in my new Housing Market Report which should launch Monday on Minyanville.com.

    As for the shadow inventory, you can read my article about it on MINYANVILLE, BUSINESS INSIDER, or MarketWatch. It came out in late September.

    Hope this helps.

  15. rktbrkr says:

    FL has 440K shadow foreclosures, nearly 2X CA which is #2, can only guess how long it would take to clear these and at what cost

    http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/04/05/2152440/floridas-shadow-real-estate-inventory.html?source=patrick.net&story_link=email_msg

  16. rktbrkr says:

    Keith, thanks for your reply

    the shadow is growing longer …