Census Department:

“Sales of new single-family houses in March 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 300,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.1 percent (±21.7%)* above the revised February rate of 270,000, but is 21.9 percent (±10.3%) below the March 2010 estimate of 384,000.

Note the margin of error. The monthly gain of 11% is not statistically significant with an error of +/- 21.7%. On the other hand, the year over year drop of 21.9% is statistically significant with an error of +/- 11.1%.

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New Home Sales (March 2011)

click for larger chart

Chart courtesy of Calculated Risk

Category: Data Analysis, Real Estate

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

7 Responses to “New Home Sales Fall 22% Year Over Year”

  1. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Double-digit error margin doesn’t instill confidence in the data. Rather makes me inclined to think of the book “How to Lie with Statistics”.

  2. DebbieSmith says:

    Here is what is anticipated for housing prices in the United States over the coming year:

    http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/04/united-states-housing-market-another.html

  3. DeDude says:

    Year over year gets a little problematic because the tax-credits distorted sales a year ago. But the comparison to 2009 would certainly suggest that it is neither a good nor an improving market for new homes. Besides everything else it is very difficult to build and sell for a profit in the current competition with old homes.

  4. KJ Foehr says:

    Just wait until Summer after QE2 ends (or Ben tries to end it), and rates go up.

    Things could get quite dicey with gas >$4 and 30 year rate >6%.

    And guess who will get all the blame? If there is a change in 2012, then all bets are off as to what will happen with the economy after that! Maybe another tax cut will save us…

    .
    It won’t be long before we hear that seasonal refrain,
    “Sell in May and go away.”

  5. dss says:

    We have to go through this to get to the other side, might take another 10 years for supply to meet demand, all things being equal.

  6. philipat says:

    NAR Press Release; “New Home Sales UP 11% in March” ??!! Come on Lawrence, give us some fun.

  7. rktbrkr says:

    QE is pushing up commodity costs of stuff going into new homes while 50-60-70% of used homes are distressed sales creates an impossible situation for new home builders.

    If appraisers are only offering 90% of comps (including distressed sales) nobody will ever qualify for a conventional mortgage.