The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

Both China’s state and private sector weighted manufacturing indices rose in March but to levels slightly below expectations and copper quietly is falling to the lowest in 2 1/2 weeks. India’s PMI was flat with Feb at an elevated 57.9. We got our 1st peak but incomplete look at Japan’s economy as the Q1 Tankan report was 1 pt above forecasts at +6 but about 75% of the responses were given before March 11th. The BoJ will release next week the specific post earthquake response so as to fully clarify. The Yen is down for a 7th day and at a 6 1/2 week low vs the US$. UK manufacturing PMI in March fell to a 5 month low but output prices rose to the highest since at least ’99 when that stat began to be kept. Ahead of the ECB rate hike next week, Germany’s 2 yr note yield is rising to the highest since Dec ’08. Higher interest rates globally will continue to be the 2011 theme. In Ireland, bond holders are saved again as senior unsecured holders will not be subject to haircuts.