Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Private sector payroll growth solid in March
2) ISM mfr’g solid but some key components moderate
3) Feb Pending Home Sales better than expected
4) Irish debt gets some relief as bank stress test in line with bailout cost estimates
5) Taiwan raises rates to join other Asian nations in fighting inflation
6) Yen at 3 1/2 month low providing breather to Japanese exporters (but cost of needed imports go up)

Negatives:

1) No wage growth as inflation pressures continue, WMT endorses that as fact
2) Case/Shiller HPI back to near the lows
3) Consumer Confidence at 4 mo low as 1 yr inflation expectations rise to 6.7%
4) Vice Chairman of Fed continues to drive monetary policy bus 250 mph on ever growing icy roads
5) China mfr’g bit below estimates, copper at 2 1/2 week low
6) Euro Zone CPI at 2.6%, most since Oct ’08
7) Portugal and Greek debt ever more toxic
8) 3yr, 5yr, 7yr Treasury auctions soft

Category: Financial Press, Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

7 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (4.1.11)”

  1. jeff in indy says:

    did you intentionally leave ireland off of #7? or have they gone beyond ‘ever more…’

  2. Marcus says:

    April 1 – Irish bank stress test shows all is fine.

    APRIL FOOL. Gottcha!

  3. Bill Wilson says:

    As a positive, sentiment bottomed out in the middle of March, and is currently getting more bullish with room to run.

  4. econimonium says:

    I think your number 1 negative is negative for another reason. There isn’t any way there are “inflation pressures” in the classic sense and this is what is shows. There is no wage-price spiral happening nor can there be. What this shows is that consumers have little to no wage growth in the face of price pressures, and this is problematic because in order to meet rising prices spending in other categories will have to be reduced. In my opinion this is *deflationary* not inflationary, and there is no room for a spiral to occur.

    So it’s bad for business (discretionary spending ones) because the increased costs will come out of that category so squeezed consumers can meet their needs. There is no room for companies to hike prices, and if they do, they’ll see decreased not increased sales. This is especially true for “brand” products.

    So if this continues, flee from any discretionary income categories and companies like P&G that are raising prices, along with mid-tier retailers. The high end doesn’t feel this pinch it is the low to mid end that does and will switch buying habits to compensate. But if you’re looking for classic inflation here, you won’t find it. This isn’t inflation. My .02.

  5. Petey Wheatstraw says:

    econimonium:

    We have broken the essential wage/price (or producer/consumer) cycle that leads to relatively manageable inflation/growth in the general economy in our (or any) fiat currency system (certainly, the money supply has been radically inflated to the point of distortion, with the attendant drop in currency value, but the velocity/flow of that new money has not been allowed to make its way to the consumer in an amount that will offset existing debt, much less keep the economy growing). The chain is broken. As a result, we see inflation in some areas and deflation in others. Growth is now completely reliant on continuation the radical inflation of the base money supply and the distribution of that money to the production side of the equation (new homes are still being built and added to unsold inventory, regardless of the law of supply and demand, for example). Unbalanced, unsustainable, unpredictable, and foolish. So much for currency as a store of wealth. So much for knowing the real value of anything. What’s in YOUR wallet?

  6. VennData says:

    Berkshire Guessing Game: Gates?

    Gates? What would Bill Gates do as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway and all their investments in insurance, and the likes of Wells Fargo, and Coca Cola? …copy the secret formula to Pepsi? …make a Geico insurance policy that crashes your car for you?

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204536004576232932897393682.html