The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

With gasoline prices up for a 43rd straight day yesterday to an average of $3.98 per gallon, just .13 from matching a record high, it is ever more important that the US economy generates jobs to the extent to offset this ever growing cost. Since Dec 31st, prices are up $.91, a cost to consumers of about $125b annualized, higher now than the $112b payroll tax cut put in place at the very end of ’10. Expectations today are for an April private sector job gain of 198k according to ADP. Following the more aggressive rate hike in India where short term growth is being sacrificed for long term price stability, as it should be, the Sensex index fell for an 8th straight day, the longest losing streak since ’02 and the Shanghai index took the cue as it fell 2.3% to a 10 week low. Copper is lower in response to near the lowest since Dec. Vietnam raised rates 100 bps to 14%. Portugal agreed to a 78b euro, 3yr bailout plan with the EU/IMF and yields there are lower and CDS tighter. Lastly, US equity bullishness remains high as II said Bulls rose to 54.9 from 54.3 while Bears fell to 16.5 from 18.5.