We took our QID and SDS leveraged shorts off today.
Not that we won’t put them back on eventually, but the 200 day moving average seems to be pretty decent support for now. (We added longs back in March)
This capital has yet to be redeployed — we are now running about 39% cash in Long/Short, our most aggressive portfolio.
More as this develops . . .
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Dollar depreciation leads to higher inflation and ultimately forces foreign creditors to question their rationale and indeed their sanity for continuing purchases of U.S. Treasuries." -Bill Gross
Signs continue that European markets are getting tired. The Spanish and Italian stock markets, big beneficiaries of the sharp decline in their bond yields over the past few months are falling to the lowest since Feb 1. The European bank index is at a 1 1/2 week low after earnings reports from Commerzbank and Credit Ag (RBS bouncing although reporting weaker than expected earnings) were disappointing. This market action is in spite of the German IFO business confidence figure which rose to a 7 month high coming in a touch above expectations and Italian consumer confidence which bounced more than...
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June 20th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
BR: what is your take on the end of QE2? Will it have market impact or no?
June 20th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
RE: “but the 200 day moving average seems to be pretty decent support for now”
Yes, it seems as if the 200 dma has served as support. I am very curious to see how the market reacts to Bernanke’s Press Conference Wednesday.
If the 200 dma on the S&P500 doesn’t hold as support, I think the next major support level is the 1220-level. I think it will be very significant if the 1220-level doesn’t hold, as it is significant on many fronts.
For those interested I recently wrote a post regarding the 1220-area and its significance; here is the link:
http://economicgreenfield.blogspot.com/2011/06/s-since-2007.html
June 20th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
What do you mean by “39% cash in Long/Short”?
My understanding is: 61% Long + 39% cash-neutral (39% long + 39% short)?
So gross exposure + 61% + 39% x 2 = 61% + 78% = 139% ?
June 20th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Funny. I closed out a short position this morning myself. I’ll be reshorting at some point soon. I don’t think this next leg up has that much far to go but we shall see.
June 20th, 2011 at 3:31 pm
thanks for the update on your positions.
Now the question is, how bearish are you compared to march ??
June 20th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
BR, there’s a lot of ugly charts out there. However, one that looks good to me in the next couple of weeks is ADM.
Even though ADM could be making a right shoulder of a H&S top here on the daily, it should run up to $33.35 and possibly even $34 over the next 3-weeks. The chart is set up for a move up to $32 in the next couple of days, although it will likely not close above 32.13 this week. A stop around $29.00 to $29.36 gives a very good risk/reward ratio as well.
June 20th, 2011 at 5:49 pm
Does this mean that the market (US) is discounting any potential fall out from Greece/Europe debacle, within 24-48 hours?
If it is, then it is too good to be true!
Will the PM of Greece get vote of confidence?
Can the Greece parliament pass the required austerity measures?
Are Greek citizens willing to cede their Sovereignty/Democracy to Troika?
June 21st, 2011 at 5:56 am
Always appreciate position updates. I’ve been in neutral for months (well, slightly long) wondering about the end of QEx, Greece, and the general roll of the U.S. economy. I’m inclined to believe there will be a downturn somewhere going forward (in the next 9 months?) as part of – not sure what to call it – consumer exhaustion. Not that the consumer is going to completely shut down, but the persistent 10% unemployment in so many areas has got to have an effect. Or maybe they don’t matter any more. I dunno.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:21 am
I second what quiddity said — always appreciate your position updates, Barry. I’m not a trader so my positions are always a matter of my percentage equities, vs. bonds and cash. I’m currently at a fairly low equity exposure, just see a lot of risk. And you, Barry, have not been bullish which is a strong indicator for me.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:17 pm
That was a real sweet call Barry — well done!
June 23rd, 2011 at 2:44 am
BR: do you think RIMM may soon be a candidate for a process a la BP?