Nice reversal today on Greece and Strategic Oil Reserve release:
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Dollar depreciation leads to higher inflation and ultimately forces foreign creditors to question their rationale and indeed their sanity for continuing purchases of U.S. Treasuries." -Bill Gross
Signs continue that European markets are getting tired. The Spanish and Italian stock markets, big beneficiaries of the sharp decline in their bond yields over the past few months are falling to the lowest since Feb 1. The European bank index is at a 1 1/2 week low after earnings reports from Commerzbank and Credit Ag (RBS bouncing although reporting weaker than expected earnings) were disappointing. This market action is in spite of the German IFO business confidence figure which rose to a 7 month high coming in a touch above expectations and Italian consumer confidence which bounced more than...
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June 23rd, 2011 at 4:50 pm
I made a bet that tomorrow’s rumors/news regarding Greece will be the exact opposite of today’s news/rumors. Thank you Mr. Market (or perhaps the headline scanning algos?) for a chance to sell 2-3% higher than otherwise.
June 23rd, 2011 at 5:09 pm
Hmmm. Oil was already performing a nice unison fade with the departure of QE2.
I see it as an attempt to amplify this already short-term, positive movement.
Everyone in the office was jumping up and down on the news that the global debt issue has been resolved, though.
June 23rd, 2011 at 5:14 pm
I think this is a bad place to short.
June 23rd, 2011 at 6:42 pm
So I guess it is true the Saudis are tapped out and can’t pump enough oil
June 23rd, 2011 at 7:09 pm
When does the Strategic Petroleum Reserve become like Fort Knox, where you don’t really know if anything is in there?
June 23rd, 2011 at 7:11 pm
I find the strategic oil release immensely interesting as a direct stimulus to the US consumer economy. A big drop in the price of crude is the single most effective consumer spending juicer, and this dropped it like a felled steer.
If this shows up in the stats in the next 2 months, Obama has found a nuclear option for election year.
June 23rd, 2011 at 8:28 pm
Hi Barry,
Which program or website are you using in this charts?
Thanks a lot for all your posts; they’re absolutely great!
Natalia
June 23rd, 2011 at 8:38 pm
all they really need to drop the crude price is drastically limit the number of contracts those not producers or consumers can hold. Will produce an avalanche of selling fromt he hedgies and prop desks.
June 23rd, 2011 at 9:29 pm
Volume matters.
A continued bounce off the 200 dma.
Uncertainty reigns. And the Fed Chairman’s otherworldly press conference contributes to the reign of confusion: ” We don’t know…”
Not knowing is not a plan. And my plans include mucho near term cash.
A nice reversal, though. I think I hear the peanut gallery hollering “Nnooo…” We cannot go back there….
.
June 23rd, 2011 at 10:16 pm
“Not knowing is not a plan”
Reminds me of a line from the movie “Tremors”. “Running’s not a plan. Running’s what you do when a plan fails.”
June 23rd, 2011 at 10:49 pm
“Everyone in the office was jumping up and down on the news that the global debt issue has been resolved, though.”
Yep and for what, the 15th time now?
Like Lily Tomlin said, no matter how cynical you get…
June 23rd, 2011 at 11:04 pm
Friday is going to be a veerrry interesting day in the markets. A lot of skepticism here on the ability of this bounce to continue … It would not surprise me if it bounces around here at the 200 day MA for a week or so, then moves higher. For a while, anyway. In the end, I think it will tank, but not so long as there is a significantl amount of opinion that expects it to …
It may be that the 2012 campaign activities will keep people sufficiently spooked to preclude any irrational exuberance from taking hold … and my guess is that a bit of irrational exuberance is just what we need to tank this market.
June 24th, 2011 at 1:01 am
The 200 mva is more important than many realize in this particular instance.
June 24th, 2011 at 1:58 am
At some point they are going to have to buy back that oil to replenish reserves or they are taking themselves out of the game now. Win/win for oil traders
June 24th, 2011 at 3:24 am
The last days of june will be interestng to say the least. I think running a strategy akin to Barry’s (as far as I can determine, forgive me if I’m wrong, BR) of a solid cash position and relatively modest net long position is still the best bet. I am wondering what the end of Q / H1 will mean with regard to portfolio adjustments from large managers also. I suppose the usual window dressing effects can be seen.
I am uncomfortable getting longer here. I don’t place that much trust in the 200d MA which seems to be a major talking point on CNBS (not a typo) and BB presently. If it is such an important pivot, what happens if we break it? Lots of weak longs will want to get out. We are apporaching the most illiquid period in credit and stock markets. Maybe betting smaller than usual is the best play.
June 24th, 2011 at 6:43 am
Regarding oil, The release of the oil is only that, a release. If no one purchases it, it doesn’t move It just adds to the glut that is available on the market (I agree with peak oil, but it just won’t be here by noon- lot’s of tankers anchored and full, some can hold 4million barrels…15 ships could hold the entire release) . Is there a way to find out if any oil physically moves? Otherwise it’s just a play on speculators?
June 24th, 2011 at 7:53 am
The strategic oil reserve release is a joke; nothing more than puffery. The Powers That Be will be using everything they can at key technical points on the S&P to get the bounces they want and prevent a major immediate drop in the index. Bernanke wants a long slow orderly drop in the S&P over the next three to six months. They’ll coordinate with the administration to try and get the maximum political benefit out of QE3 so that the stock market will be in decent shape around the time of the 2012 election.
June 24th, 2011 at 9:16 am
@NataliaA That program would be freestockcharts.com.
June 24th, 2011 at 10:27 am
@inthewoods Thank you very much! :P
June 24th, 2011 at 10:43 am
“a release. If no one purchases it, it doesn’t move” .. interesting takes on this offer to open the onshore spigot
does the USA own a ship of its own to refill it .. can it refill it with its own onshore resources .. on its own terms .. oh no I’m suggesting cutting out the middlemiddlemiddle men .. what ever will they do for a living
and finally I signed in to ask if there is a chart/graph of the oil reserve COST to fill over the years .. salt mine cavity volume & each purchase price to fill it = $? per barrel in this release
June 24th, 2011 at 12:13 pm
Dear Bulls,
How ’bout those Italian banks?
Europe giveth, and Europe taketh away.
xoxo