Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (06.17.11)
Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Merkel/Sarkozy and hopefully the ECB coalesce around the idea of a voluntary debt rollover which Fitch thinks would not be a technical default but some sell job must be made to convince current holders to buy new bonds
2) After 8 of 9 weeks above estimates, Initial Jobless Claims below forecasts but still above 400k for 10th straight week
3) Multi family starts outlook a positive for construction
4) May Retail Sales a touch better than feared
5) 7 month low in mortgage rates lead to 6 month high in refi’s
6) RBI and PBOC take more steps to slow inflation, soft landing?
7) Chinese retail sales and IP hang in in May
Negatives:
1) Even with more help, Greece will never be able to pay back what is owed and the inevitable action to bond holders gets pushed further into the future
2) Philly and NY mfr’g survey’s unexpectedly fall into negative territory
3) NAHB builder survey falls to 13 from 16, bad gets more bad
4) Auto production falls for 2nd month due to Japanese supply issues
5) US CPI now running 3.6% y/o/y, the most since Oct ’08
6) NFIB small business optimism falls to lowest since Sept
7) Chinese bank loans rise 100b yuan below expectations, M2 growth slowest since Nov ’08, PBOC again hikes RR and RBI lifts rates to sacrifice growth for price stability, soft landing?
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June 17th, 2011 at 4:49 pm
“1) Even with more help, Greece will never be able to pay back what is owed and the inevitable action to bond holders gets pushed further into the future”
VennData, do you still think:
“So what does your mathematical analysis of the revenue flow, potential growth rates and assets sales tell you about Greece. Oh, you haven’t done that analysis? So you’re parroting back commentary from which “trusted” talking head?”
I seem to be sprouting new heads.
Throw in the towel man, Greece will default.
June 17th, 2011 at 8:36 pm
Sarkozy and Merkel need to understand that the Germans, Belgiums, French and Duthc are going to lose a lot on the non cash asset side of their balance sheets before the rioting ends.
Onesided changing bond terms is kicking an empty can down the road.
Greece selling assets……..
That makes Greeks unemployed renters in their own country.
How much CDS exposure will be socialized from Wall St once this unwinds?
June 18th, 2011 at 7:21 am
Hell, how are WE gonna unwind? NOTHING has changed! The banksters and fraud are still in charge, Obama is a non-leader, we’re as insolvent as the next country and we’re not even addressing the issues!
Rule of law? That’s a sick laugh. As Leonard Cohen says “Everybody Knows” what a crock that’s become. We don’t even have the Constitution any more! Habeus corpus has been abolished, most of our “rights” (or more accurately as Carlin says “privileges”) have been taken away (sacrificed) by “homeland security” (sure startin’ to look like Nazi Germany ‘roun’ he’), no prosecutions for widespread corruption (because the whole system is shot through with it – from our so-called “watch-dog” agencies to the White House and down to the local level), and we’ve become a third-world country (complete with scrip cash and a vast military and police state presence to keep the little people – uh, that ‘s you and i by the way – in check).
The next “election” won’t help either, since our only choice is between Republicans (including Obama, a default Republican) with their various mean-spirited, greedy, hegemonic, prison-state, faux religious, anti-science, anti-environment, anti-abortion, and pro vested interests/corporate power/wealthy/religious “right.” This coming election is actually no contest indisguise.
It isn’t any better anyplace else on the planet because people are the same (or worse) everywhere – we’re all greedy, self-centered, ignorant and biased. This attitude used to be “doom and gloom” but has become reality if one is honest (ie. not “overly optimistic”).
June 20th, 2011 at 10:57 am
I don’t understand why new housing starts is always listed as a positive in every economics blog I read.
Don’t we need to cut down on some of this inventory to stop prices from declining and give stability to the housing market?