David Rosenberg: The Disappearing Recovery
By Barry Ritholtz - July 16th, 2011, 6:28AM
Fri 15 Jul 11 | 07:00 AM ET
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
July 16th, 2011 at 7:18 am
To paraphrase “If we have another recession we are in the doo doo – therefore we aren’t going to have another recession” interesting logic!
July 17th, 2011 at 1:15 am
Steve Liesman, really. Is there a bigger dick on MSM? He doesn’t think there will be another recession because: “It would be bad.”
July 17th, 2011 at 8:03 pm
David Rosenberg has been declaring the USA to be in Depression for two years. Unfortunately, GDP transitioned from Recovery mode to Expansion mode in November so now he’s desperately trying to re-brand his assessment realizing Richard Koo called it right all along. Rosenberg’s only media purpose at this point in this career is to fan the flames of all the McDoomers out in TV land – the same lunatic fringe that gleefully awaited Empire collapse in 2003/2004 & 2010.
Conversely, adding in this week’s data releases, the TRENDLines Recession Indicator is projecting GDP to trough @ 1.2% in November … en route to 2.2% by its 2013Q2 horizon. Cumulative high petroleum prices are presenting a 0.5% headwind, just a tad below the record 0.6% dampening in Oct/2008. From today, GDP must avg 4.6% to get the Unemployment Rate to dip below the infamous 7.2% by Election Day.
TRI chart: http://www.trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm
July 18th, 2011 at 5:34 am
[...] Rosenberg has been arguing for years that we are recovering from a balance sheet recession and not a recession triggered by the normal business cycle. If you’re investing for the wrong [...]
July 19th, 2011 at 8:22 pm
BJ obviously doesn’t watch CNBC. Rosenberg’s long time prediction was for a series of three to four contractions with an avg -8% GDP over 16 quarters – a greater depression. He is plainly a TV-land whore selling his McDoomer scenario to the lunatic fringe. CNBD luvs the controversy…
July 19th, 2011 at 10:18 pm
Rosenberg is always worth listening to and evaluating for traders who manage the downside.