Ongoing Weakness in Existing Home Sales (NSA)
A few quick thoughts on today’s Housing data:
1st, we must begin with the laugher NAR headline: June Existing-Home Sales Slip on Contract Cancellations, but Prices Stabilize; My advice to them is to switch to bottled water, as there is obviously some psychotropic polluting their tap water.
Second, the data remains soft:
• Total existing-home sales declined 8.8% below June 2010 sales.
• EHS are at annual rate of 4.77 million in June 2011 vs 5.23 million unit level in June 2010
• National median existing-home price for all housing types was $184,300 in June, up 0.8% from June 2010
• The median existing single-family home price was $184,600 in June, up 0.6% from a year ago.
• Distressed homes, foreclosures and short sales accounted for 30% of sales in June 2011
• Total housing inventory rose 3.3% to 3.77 million existing homes, a 9.5-month supply
• All-cash transactions accounted for 29% of sales in June 2011, up 5% from the 24% level in June 2010
• First-time buyers purchased 31% percent of homes in June, down from 43% percent in June 2010 when 1st time home buyers tax credit was expiring
Is anyone still seriously expecting a Housing recovery anytime soon?
Last, our favorite housing chart, courtesy of Calculated Risk:
>
Existing Homes Sales, Non Seasonally Adjusted 2005-2011
click for ginormous chart
Source: Calculated Risk
>
Source:
June Existing-Home Sales Slip on Contract Cancellations, but Prices Stabilize
National Association of Realtors, July 20, 2011
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2011/07/existing_slip
Tweet
Facebook
Reddit
Digg this!
July 20th, 2011 at 12:31 pm
It’s time to buy
July 20th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
But housing is recovering. It’s now about half way to a pricing level that most Americans can afford. Patience.
July 20th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
I never cease to be amazed at the differences in regional housing sales. The housing market here seems to be going well for home resales. New home construction is way down from boom times, but remains steady. With all the energy companies hiring and moving people it’s a decent market. Anecdotal observations of several acquaintances indicate some houses are on the market for a day or two at most, and some houses are on the market for months. Price and location, price and location and price and location seem to be the driving factors. Who would’a thunk those two items would be important?
July 20th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
To me, this chart is encouraging. 2011 closely matches 2009 levels each month, and 2010 is skewed because of the tax credit. Don’t be surprised when next month’s numbers shock to the upside because 2010 simply screwed up everyone’s thinking. It’s no recovery, but we’ll be way ahead of 2010 in July which will cause everyone to wrongly overreact.
July 20th, 2011 at 2:46 pm
Housing should be thought of as primarily consumption, not investment.
As such, lower prices should be better.
July 20th, 2011 at 2:55 pm
“Is anyone still seriously expecting a Housing recovery anytime soon?”
Yes since 16 Jun 2009:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/31388528/Cramer_Housing_Has_Officially_Bottomed
“Residential real estate has finally found a floor, Cramer told viewers on Tuesday. The sector’s long, steep descent is all but over. He had predicted this day would come by the end of June, and he was right – with just two weeks to spare. ”
I mean really don’t you watch Mad Money? geez
July 20th, 2011 at 2:56 pm
I do not think it is time to buy. There are plenty of foreclosures still being held back by the banks and the foreclosure process itself is cloudy at best.
Significantly, many speculators who bought “at the bottom” in 2009 are letting properties go back into foreclosure, thus creating a new wave of mass property sales. They tried to catch a falling knife.
Granted, not every area of the coutry is experiencing real property chaos. But with so much uncertainty in the air, who knows what will occur next? Buying a home is a huge financial decision for almost all folks and if the perception is that this investment may sink, they will likely rent and not buy.
July 20th, 2011 at 4:23 pm
Apple would know what to do: INNOVATION: Zero Energy Homes.
July 20th, 2011 at 5:07 pm
hm… I wonder if true commitment by the parties (realtors, sellers and buyers) would improve the chart any? I mean with the No Strings Attached approach, you just KNOW the Realtors are treating this as a one night stand! And I am guessing they are not too particular which other party (buyer or seller) they *%$! in the deal!
Oh… NSA stands for Non Seasonally Adjusted… never mind.
July 20th, 2011 at 6:49 pm
BR: “My advice to them is to switch to bottled water, as there is obviously some psychotropic polluting their tap water”
Nah.
They’re just your run of the mill lying weasels.
July 20th, 2011 at 8:16 pm
“Distressed homes, foreclosures and short sales accounted for 30% of sales in June 2011.”
And yet…
“Mortgage industry employees are still signing documents they haven’t read and using fake signatures more than eight months after big banks and mortgage companies promised to stop the illegal practices that led to a nationwide halt of home foreclosures.
County officials in at least three states say they have received thousands of mortgage documents with questionable signatures since last fall, suggesting that the practices, known collectively as “robo-signing,” remain widespread in the industry.”
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/07/18/national/a135435D60.DTL#ixzz1Sh6TNnrt
July 20th, 2011 at 10:41 pm
In the glass half full dept: Existing Home sales are up 25% from the July 2010 bottom & median Existing Home price is up $28k from the Feb/2011 bottom. Both existing & new home markets have resumed their secular uptrend precisely on their long term (price/income) trend lines.
Realty Bubble Monitor: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RealtyBubbleMonitor/RealtyBubbleMonitor.htm