Heading back home today after a week on the road. (Roaming charge in Canada are going to be expensive!).
Very interesting week — I met a few new clients, learned a bit more about human psychology (you people are fascinating). I will post the outline of my last presentation later.
Looking forward to getting back home . . .
John R. Talbott
What If Lobbyists Didn’t Exist?
Posted: 7/26/11 10:05 AM ET
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I was curious as to what the world would look like if we didn’t have lobbyists. We are one week away from announcing here the formation of a third party that has just one platform issue, the refusal of our candidates to take money or meet with lobbyists, banks or corporations while campaigning or in office. We understand that we will most likely be outspent in every election we enter, but we also feel America is ready to clean up the cesspool of special interests we call Washington. Having said that, if we can get 5 million Americans to each give us $50, that would be $250 million, enough to run a major campaign successfully. We will make up for our shortage of money with a surplus of American hard work and ingenuity. If Tunisia and Egypt can organize a revolution on the net, we ought to be able to also.
One of Huffington Post’s readers asked a very intuitive question after reading an article we posted that described the new party’s intentions. He asked, if you only have one platform issue, how is one supposed to know where the party stands on all the other important issues facing the country, the debt, the environment, jobs, healthcare, etc.
First of all, the national party will not be taking any positions on these issues. We will leave it to our candidates to take positions and we will leave it to voters, free of special interest influence, to decide if the positions our candidates espouse meet with favor with the electorate. I know this sounds like Democracy 101, but we have gotten so far away from democracy in this country that it needs to be said. If our candidates get off track and don’t represent your interests, you vote them out of office. The new national political party, unlike the Democrats and the Republicans, will not be rewarding our candidates with donations who regurgitate the party’s positions on issues. Then we will have a true democracy reflecting all the people and all the rich diversity of ideas that this country represents.
If you wanted to think ahead as to what a winning strategy for one of our candidates might be, you need look no further than recent polls of Americans’ views on important policy questions. Our candidates will not feel obligated to always vote the way polls suggest, but, if they want to get reelected in a world without big money and lobbyists, they better not stray too far afield of what the people want.
So what do the people want? Understanding all the weaknesses of polls and how they can be constructed, but just wanting to get a general idea of what the American people were thinking on important issues, I did a Google search for the words “Polls show….” I don’t agree with all of these positions, but I find myself agreeing a lot more with this group than with the corporate and lobbyist controlled crowd currently in Washington. Here are the results of the search in no particular order.
1 July 2011 – 19 Different Polls Show That Americans Support Tax Increases To Cut Deficit
16 Feb 2011 – The latest CBS News poll shows 55 percent oppose Republican efforts to cut funding for the new health care law.
2 Jun 2011 – Polls Show Huge Public Support for Gay and Transgender Workplace Protections.
2 March 2011 – Four national polls show strong public opposition to rolling back public employee bargaining rights
20 Apr 2011 – Polls Show Support for Fixing Federal Deficit, but Not for Proposed Remedies.
7 Mar 2011 – New Polls Show Support for Civil Liberties.
21 Jun 2011 – Polls Show More Americans Favor Withdrawal From Afghanistan
25 Apr 2011 – A poll from CNN this week is the latest to show a majority of Americans in favor of same-sex marriage
15 Apr 2011 – Polls Show Opposition To Medicare Cuts, Uncertainty About Ryan Budget
29 Jun 2011 – New Battleground States Polls Show 7 in 10 Voters Want High Earners to Pay Their Fair Share for Social Security
10 Jun 2010 – Two separate polls this week, from Stanford and Yale universities, show Americans are still concerned about global warming
Now the majority is not always right, and that is why we have a representative form of government, so our elected officials can also vote their conscience. But, corporate and special interest lobbying in Washington has become so pervasive that the country is begging for an alternative, and we hope to give it to them.
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John R. Talbott is a best selling author and consultant. His new book is mandatory reading for anyone interested in learning the real reasons for this crisis and how to protect yourself going forward. You can read more about John and the new book at www.stopthelying.com or at amazon.com. Information for media contacts is also available at www.stopthelying.com.
Amazon.com’s stock-market value exceeded $100 billion yesterday for the first time, and anyone looking at how closely the world’s largest online retailer has tracked Apple Inc. might have predicted as much.
The chart above shows the market capitalization of the two companies during the past five years. Amazon.com’s value jumped ninefold in the period as Apple’s rose more than sixfold, (data compiled by Bloomberg).
Source:
David Wilson
Bloomberg News, July 28, 2011
A few interesting items for your reading pleasure:
• U.S. Downgrade May Cost $100B a Year: JPMorgan (Bloomberg)
• The 400 Richest Americans Pay An 18% Tax Rate (Forbes) see also Dynasty Trusts Let U.S. Wealthy Duck Estate, Gift Taxes Forever (Bloomberg)
• Once Unthinkable, Breakup of Big Banks Now Seems Feasible (Deal Book)
• Facing criticism, MERS cuts role in foreclosures (Reuters) see also Internal Doc Reveals GMAC Filed False Document in Bid to Foreclose (Pro Publica)
• News Corp., Hackings and the Story I Missed (Bloomberg)
• Which Is in Worse Shape, U.S. or Europe? (Economix) see also U.S. Rating Rests On S&P’s View of Washington (Bloomberg)
• After the debt-ceiling standoff is resolved (Washington Post) see also The Debt Crisis’ Greedheads, Fountainheads, Godheads, Airheads, and the Rest of Us (Talking Points Memo)
• Online Music, Unshackled (NYT)
• Global warming denialism? It ends now. (Science Blog)
• Joss Stone: LP1 (Paste Magazine)
What are you reading?
This clip below, from Debt Management – CreditSesame.com is a huge look at what they term as land grab int he US. The clip below shows only 20% of the full digital graphic:
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click for ginormous graphic
Nomura Research Institute’s Richard Koo says that what the world is experiencing right now, a “balance sheet recession,” is different from traditional recessions. However, Japan recently experienced a similar type of recession, and Koo says we can learn a lot from that country’s experiences.
Interviewed by Daniel Erasmus at King’s College, April 2010.
OK, OK, Ok!
By popular insistence,
We may not be able to address our current debt ceiling woes, but we can at least put them to a good beat.
Justin Webb asks whether the United States is capable of averting economic meltdown.
click for audio
Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.
Duration: 29 mins
~~~
Source:
Is America Doomed?
BBC Radio, 27 June, 2011
Yesterday, I tweeted a quick mention of the ARMS index, a technical measure that has psychological implications. I received a response from @JayTrdr, who wrote: “Machines don’t smell or feel fear.”
That is a valid point. With that in mind, let’s have a look at what Skynet, our machine overlords, are up to, via Nanex: >
>
Capacity (Quotes per Second) per multicast line all 12 multicast lines
Before July 5, 2011 75,000 750,000
Starting July 5, 2011 100,000 1,000,000
The following charts plot each of the 12 individual CQS multicast lines and the total (which is divided by 10 to fit into the same scale) on a 1 millisecond basis.
The first chart shows one micro-burst of activity as it occurred on July 5th, 2011, which is the first day after CQS capacity was increased by 33% to 1 million quotes/second.
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click for larger graphic
The second chart shows how this same data might look if we imposed the capacity limits that were in effect prior to this trading day.
Source: Equity Quote Saturation
July 7, 2011
Northern Trust’s Paul Kasriel lays into one of the more nonsensical shibboleths making the rounds these days — that U.S. businesses’ seem to have discovered “Selective Uncertainty:”
“I keep hearing that what is holding U.S. businesses back from expanding and hiring is “uncertainty.” Exactly what new types of uncertainty businesses face in the current environment vs. past environments is rarely spelled out. But if, in fact, businesses are paralyzed due to uncertainty, I would not expect them to be stepping up their purchases of capital equipment. After all, capital equipment has a relatively long life. If businesses were unusually uncertain about the long-term outlook, they would be more reluctant to make longer-term commitments, which the purchase of capital equipment is. Rather, if businesses were unusually uncertain about the future, they might be more inclined to hire workers, who, after all, can be dismissed on short notice if conditions were to change suddenly.
But just the opposite seems to be happening. Business hiring remains weak and business capital spending is robust. The capital spending part is illustrated in the chart below showing the 8-quarter annualized growth in shipments of nondefense capital goods deflated by the PPI for capital goods. In the 8 quarters of the current economic recovery/expansion, price-adjusted shipments of nondefense capital goods have increased at an annualized rate of 7.4%. In the prior economic expansion, when, presumably, there was normal or less-than-normal uncertainty, the fastest 8-quarter annualized growth in price-adjusted shipments of nondefense capital goods was 8.6% — in the 8 quarters ended Q1:2006. I would think that if abnormally-high business uncertainty prevailed today, there would have been considerably slower growth in price-adjusted purchases of nondefense capital goods than what has occurred.”
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." —John Maynard Keynes
After 3 quarters in a row that averaged just 1.2%, Q4 GDP grew 2.8%, a touch below expectations of 3.0% BUT Nominal GDP grew well below forecasts. Because the price deflator was up just .4% vs the estimate of 1.9%, Nominal GDP was up 3.2% vs the estimate of 4.9%. Personal Consumption rose 2.0% vs the forecast of 2.4%. Fixed Investment rose 3.3% helped by a 5.2% increase in equipment and software spending and residential construction rose by 10.9%. Trade was a slight drag on GDP growth and government spending was as well led by a 12.5% decline on national...
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