ECRI’s Achuthan: Jury Still Out on Recession
By Barry Ritholtz - August 30th, 2011, 11:00AM
ECRI’s Achuthan: “No Upturn Yet…More Weakness” Ahead, But Jury Still Out on Recession
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:13 am
hmmm.
Confidence is a key driver? Well knock me over with a feather.
Imagine a world without bipolar, financial experts who build their media portfolios on spurious data and irrational fear.
I’ve had just about enough.
August 30th, 2011 at 11:45 am
“Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. ”
Well played.
I heard him say that confidence was one key driver, among a few, and that it’s not yet known if its become self-reinforcing in a recessionary way.
To be fair, I’m not dodging feathers.
August 30th, 2011 at 12:10 pm
Achuthan is one of the more credible guys out there. He has been right a good bit in the past. That’s why BR posted the video.
August 30th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Eh, not that credible. Basically, ECRI called “slowdown” each of the past 3 years.
Fail.
August 30th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
“I heard him say that confidence was one key driver, among a few, and that it’s not yet known if its become self-reinforcing in a recessionary way.”
That is similar to saying that we are unsure if daily consumption of arsenic is not a building-block to good health.
August 30th, 2011 at 1:34 pm
ECRI nailed the end of recession in ’09, the slowdown in ’10 (but no double-dip recession) and now the slowdown in ’11. But put the track record debate aside for the moment.
Just re-read their Big Picture posting from late 2009 on jobs and it’s worth another look:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/a-lost-decade-for-job/
August 30th, 2011 at 2:02 pm
From JunknDump link:
“If that pattern persists, the U.S. economy needs to keep expanding without interruption until 2020 for unemployment to fall to its pre-recession low. Even to get back to 5%, often considered to be “full employment,” it would take a business cycle upswing lasting about as long as the record-setting 1991-2001 expansion.”
Let’s get something straight.
5 percent unemployment for the United States was an mirage created by cheap credit and the amazing ability of the housing sector to mop-up marginally employable people.
Furthermore, 5 percent unemployment in todays economy would create wage pressure beyond imagination.
As I have said before, 8 to 8.5 percent is totally appropriate for the US economy. Maybe even healthy.
August 30th, 2011 at 3:12 pm
nice video, thanks for the update
these guys are tops imo.
August 31st, 2011 at 3:10 am
there’s nothing wrong with saying there are uncertainties which can affect the outcome – if it was as simple as putting a few numbers into a sausage machine, everyone would be a billionaire.
August 31st, 2011 at 3:27 am
Achuthan’s reluctance to call a Recession is still mirrored by the TRENDLines Recession Indicator. The only potential contraction months currently are March & April. Too short for a Technical Recession and out far enuf that monetary/fiscal policy mitigation is possible if confidence fails to rebound.
TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm