What is it about these four Bloomberg headlines that are imparting some sort of a lesson?

May 23, 2011: Biggs Buying as S&P 500 Profit Forecasts Rise Most in a Year

May 24, 2011Biggs Says Stock Bears Wrong Even as Economy Slows

Aug 3, 2011: Birinyi, Biggs Advise Holding Stocks After S&P 500’s Decline

Aug 18, 2011: Biggs Says S&P May Be Bottoming, Priced for 15% Profit Drop

Which of these buy calls should you follow? Might some of these calls be suffering from bias? And if you are always telling people to buy-buy-buy, can anyone really follow your advice?

Category: Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

25 Responses to “Investors: Think For Yourselves”

  1. Petey Wheatstraw says:

    From Wikipedia:

    “Biggs badly missed the true nature of the economy’s problems leading to the 2008-9 recession:
    Barton Biggs’s Traxis Fund LP tumbled 10 percent in the first half of the year, hurt by bets that U.S. shares would appreciate.

    As recently as May, Biggs, 75, said the U.S. economy will grow in the second half of 2008, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may climb to a record and commodity prices will retreat as much as 30 percent. [3]

    He said he was bullish on Mexico shortly before the peso crashed in 1994.[1]”
    _____________

    “What is it about these four Bloomberg headlines that are imparting some sort of a lesson?”

    Barton Biggs is a huckster?

  2. Bob A says:

    it’s more fun to pick on Cramer

  3. LostinATX says:

    long QID. that is all.

  4. robert d says:

    we should all have their long term track record.

    ~~~

    BR: What is the long term track record ? Is it easily accessible? Can you judge it by the media?

  5. bram says:

    it’s good to be a billionaire

  6. Jojo says:

    All the news programs were rolling out the brokerage shills gushing over how much cheaper stocks were to buy now and counseling the retail investor not to panic.

    When your salary and business depend on people buying something, it is ALWAYS a good time to buy.

    One would think people would have learned this by now.

  7. Chief Tomahawk says:

    Next he’ll come out and call the airlines a buy.

    Fyi: Ron Insana trumpted financials earlier tonight on CNBC. Sees them much better in 3-5 years. And I guess Doug Kass thinks they can double in a year’s time…

    Was the late day rally today those recalling the vicious rally days last week coming on the heels of selloff days? Sure seemed like some short-covering going on…

  8. Concerned Neighbour says:

    I’ve heard some recent interviews with this gentleman and he did not sound very convincing at all.

    It’s distressing to hear how many longs – including so-called “value” professional portfolio managers – are hanging their hat on one year forward P/E, a deeply flawed measure. They have not learned anything from the dot com bubble and the RE bubble when analysts drastically cut their earnings estimates in the blink of an eye. Anyone who bases their investment thesis solely on the one-year forward P/E is asking for trouble.

  9. MaxMax says:

    The lesson they’re imparting is that there’s a difference betweeen entertainment and information, and it’s in the entertainment industry’s interest to conflate the two.

  10. macrotrader603 says:

    Biggs, he of the great “stock meltup” prediction mid 2008

    Anyone who listens to anyone else to trade is a fool.

  11. AlexM says:

    Biggs says this is a “fabulous” opportunity for long term stock investors, and an “incredible” intermediate term selling opportunity for gold and bonds.

    Hmmm.

  12. Michael Gat says:

    Biggs? Didn’t he spend most of the greatest bull market in the history of the world telling us that it was unsustainable and the end of the world was coming? It turned out he was eventually right, as he will eventually be right this time. But what will be missed along the way?

  13. [...] – A painful consistency. [...]

  14. dougc says:

    Again the bond market is smarter than the stock market, I have found it more relevant to look at margin debt as the best sentiment indicator for market tops and commodity prices especially copper and oil as the best economic indicators. They speak loudly if you are willing to listen.

  15. [...] Why as an investor it always makes sense to think for yourself.  (Big Picture) [...]

  16. royrogers says:

    what about Doug Kass ??
    he was mega bearish a few months ago , now he is mega bullish on bank stocks.??

  17. Rouleur says:

    …when you see this Biggs guy in the media, he seems awful anxious…his fund must be very highly levered…and all he knows is rah, rah…i remember an interview with barton on one half of the screen and fleck on the other…what a contrast…here is a link…

    http://red-pill-blue-pill.blogspot.com/2010/11/bill-fleckenstein-interview.html

  18. A says:

    We must always remember the proper definition of Finance: the transfer of wealth to the shrewd and corrupt, from the rest of us.

  19. Niskyboy says:

    “can anyone really follow your advice?”

    Good point, Barry. You’re also thinking of Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg here, right? Anyone who listened to that guy (or at least to his public utterances, who knows what he actually tells clients) would have missed much of the stupendous rally off the late 2008-early 2009 lows.

  20. arbitrage789 says:

    I recall Biggs being pretty bullish in Q4 of 2007.

    Catastrophic error.

  21. rktbrkr says:

    How does someone like Biggs keep getting so much face time when his advice is obviously poison?

  22. [...] and booked on shows simply because you’re “a name”.  Dick Bove is a great example of this, so is Barton Biggs.  You don’t like it?  Too bad, that’s how it is and that’s how the world works.  The producers [...]