What is it about these four Bloomberg headlines that are imparting some sort of a lesson?
• May 23, 2011: Biggs Buying as S&P 500 Profit Forecasts Rise Most in a Year
• May 24, 2011: Biggs Says Stock Bears Wrong Even as Economy Slows
• Aug 3, 2011: Birinyi, Biggs Advise Holding Stocks After S&P 500’s Decline
• Aug 18, 2011: Biggs Says S&P May Be Bottoming, Priced for 15% Profit Drop
Which of these buy calls should you follow? Might some of these calls be suffering from bias? And if you are always telling people to buy-buy-buy, can anyone really follow your advice?
Category: Really, really bad calls, UnGuru
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
From Wikipedia:
“Biggs badly missed the true nature of the economy’s problems leading to the 2008-9 recession:
Barton Biggs’s Traxis Fund LP tumbled 10 percent in the first half of the year, hurt by bets that U.S. shares would appreciate.
As recently as May, Biggs, 75, said the U.S. economy will grow in the second half of 2008, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may climb to a record and commodity prices will retreat as much as 30 percent. [3]
He said he was bullish on Mexico shortly before the peso crashed in 1994.[1]”
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“What is it about these four Bloomberg headlines that are imparting some sort of a lesson?”
Barton Biggs is a huckster?
it’s more fun to pick on Cramer
http://www.businessinsider.com/simon-hobbs-to-jim-cramer-you-told-people-to-buy-bear-stearns-2011-8
long QID. that is all.
we should all have their long term track record.
~~~
BR: What is the long term track record ? Is it easily accessible? Can you judge it by the media?
it’s good to be a billionaire
All the news programs were rolling out the brokerage shills gushing over how much cheaper stocks were to buy now and counseling the retail investor not to panic.
When your salary and business depend on people buying something, it is ALWAYS a good time to buy.
One would think people would have learned this by now.
Next he’ll come out and call the airlines a buy.
Fyi: Ron Insana trumpted financials earlier tonight on CNBC. Sees them much better in 3-5 years. And I guess Doug Kass thinks they can double in a year’s time…
Was the late day rally today those recalling the vicious rally days last week coming on the heels of selloff days? Sure seemed like some short-covering going on…
I’ve heard some recent interviews with this gentleman and he did not sound very convincing at all.
It’s distressing to hear how many longs – including so-called “value” professional portfolio managers – are hanging their hat on one year forward P/E, a deeply flawed measure. They have not learned anything from the dot com bubble and the RE bubble when analysts drastically cut their earnings estimates in the blink of an eye. Anyone who bases their investment thesis solely on the one-year forward P/E is asking for trouble.
The lesson they’re imparting is that there’s a difference betweeen entertainment and information, and it’s in the entertainment industry’s interest to conflate the two.
Biggs, he of the great “stock meltup” prediction mid 2008
Anyone who listens to anyone else to trade is a fool.
Biggs says this is a “fabulous” opportunity for long term stock investors, and an “incredible” intermediate term selling opportunity for gold and bonds.
Hmmm.
Biggs? Didn’t he spend most of the greatest bull market in the history of the world telling us that it was unsustainable and the end of the world was coming? It turned out he was eventually right, as he will eventually be right this time. But what will be missed along the way?
[...] – A painful consistency. [...]
Again the bond market is smarter than the stock market, I have found it more relevant to look at margin debt as the best sentiment indicator for market tops and commodity prices especially copper and oil as the best economic indicators. They speak loudly if you are willing to listen.
Here are a few interesting quick reads:
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2011/08/18/298485/exclusive-goldman-sachs-vp-changed-his-name-now-advances-goldman-lobbying-interests-as-a-top-staffer-to-darrell-issa/
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/08/18/298706/perrys-climate-lies-4-pinocchios-as-huntsman-anti-science-party/
The Washington Post gave Texas governor and GOP and presidential candidate Rick Perry 4 Pinocchios for his Texas-sized lies about climate science.
http://www.businessinsider.com/father-of-the-euro-thinks-its-on-the-edge-of-a-precipice-2011-8
and, just when you thought it was safe to go in the water:
http://news.yahoo.com/pacific-russia-sees-unprecedented-shark-attacks-082721384.html
[...] Why as an investor it always makes sense to think for yourself. (Big Picture) [...]
what about Doug Kass ??
he was mega bearish a few months ago , now he is mega bullish on bank stocks.??
…when you see this Biggs guy in the media, he seems awful anxious…his fund must be very highly levered…and all he knows is rah, rah…i remember an interview with barton on one half of the screen and fleck on the other…what a contrast…here is a link…
http://red-pill-blue-pill.blogspot.com/2010/11/bill-fleckenstein-interview.html
We must always remember the proper definition of Finance: the transfer of wealth to the shrewd and corrupt, from the rest of us.
“can anyone really follow your advice?”
Good point, Barry. You’re also thinking of Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg here, right? Anyone who listened to that guy (or at least to his public utterances, who knows what he actually tells clients) would have missed much of the stupendous rally off the late 2008-early 2009 lows.
I recall Biggs being pretty bullish in Q4 of 2007.
Catastrophic error.
How does someone like Biggs keep getting so much face time when his advice is obviously poison?
[...] and booked on shows simply because you’re “a name”. Dick Bove is a great example of this, so is Barton Biggs. You don’t like it? Too bad, that’s how it is and that’s how the world works. The producers [...]
Biggs throws in the towel
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75946262/