July ISM mfr’g at 50.9 was well below expectations of 54.5, down from 55.3 in June and the weakest since July ’09. New Orders fell below 50 at 49.2 for the 1st time since June ’09. Backlogs fell 4 pts to 45 and importantly, Employment fell 6.4 pts to 53.5, the lowest since Dec ’09. Export Orders did rise .5 pt to 54 but off the slowest since July ’09. Inventories at both the mfr’g and customer levels fell. Prices Paid fell 9 pts to 57, the lowest since July ’10. Of the 18 industries surveyed, just 10 saw growth. ISM summed up July with this, “despite relief in pricing, however, several comments suggest a slowdown in domestic demand in the short term, while export orders continue to remain strong.” Bottom line, we saw softening in almost all of the regional mfr’g surveys over the past few weeks with today’s only question being to what degree. As I mentioned last week, what today and last week also proves, its the economy that is driving markets and the politics of debts and deficits are just awful noise in the background right now. While some may argue that it is just this noise that is causing the economic slowdown, all we have to do is look at Q1 GDP growth of just .4% to know the US economy was fragile to begin with.

Category: MacroNotes

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2 Responses to “ISM confirms regional survey weakness”

  1. wally says:

    “its the economy that is driving markets”

    No kidding?

  2. deanscamaro says:

    I guess I have a more simplistic view:
    1. According to all you financial experts, our economy is driven by the consumer…….RIGHT???
    2. We have just gone through a credit driven recession, where the consumer built an enormous amount of debt……..RIGHT???
    3. When you owe a lot of money, ESPECIALLY when you don’t have a job anymore, it takes eons to pay off your debts……..RIGHT???
    4. We have just gone though a ridiculous period of Kabuki theater (as some term it), being acted out by our totally incompetent politicians, focusing on the national debt, which gets overlaid on each and every citizen’s debt worries…….RIGHT???
    5. There are not improvements on the horizon for our job prospects…….RIGHT???

    My question is: Why is there any expectation or wonderment about why our economy is not improving? The consumer is tapped out!!! The financial analyst’s and media super-people ought to be proposing the idea that we are not the super economic power we once were and and that we have to find another way to keep our people busy. I grew up in an era when someone had the balls to propose and put in place the CCC to work on our infra-structure. Stupid idea…..we are being driven/controlled by financial interests who don’t believe in that.

    Enough rant for today.