Some Hedge Funds Are KILLING It This Quarter

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 19th, 2011, 11:30AM

I’ve spoken to a variety of Hedge fund managers and traders this week who have been ridding this market up and down.

Consider this one Connecticut hedge fund manager I speak with regularly:

On the long side, he is heavy into gold mining and high quality multinations; On the short side, he’s been betting against large American and European Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Home Builders and Cyclical Semis.

Over the past month, we have been discussing the Economy, the Fed, the Markets and specific sectors. As to his own holdings performance, he writes:

“The performance this month is volatile to say the least: Daily returns this week, if monthly, would be too volatile for almost everybody out there. Monday: +8.2%. Tuesday: -3.8%. Wednesday: +5.5%. And not over yet. Get me some Dramamine.

Thursday (8/11) -4.09%; Friday (8/12) -0.89%; Mon (8/15), 1.67%; Tues (8/16), 1.1%; Wed (8/17), 0.82%; and Thurs (8/18), 5.32%. Numbers are gross, in more ways than one.”

-July, the fund was up +10%

-August (to date) is plus 23.7%; Quarter (to date) 33.3%.

Prior to the July/August period, the fund was down high single/low double digits.

How to Run the A/C Full Blast Without Paying For It

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 19th, 2011, 10:49AM

Home Solar Power Discounts – One Block Off the Grid

Mortgage Rates Hit 50-Year Low

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 19th, 2011, 9:45AM

This is pretty amazing: 30 Year mortgages are now 4.15%; 15 year mortgages are 3.51%. Here’s the Bucks blog:

Back in June, in a post about adjustable-rate home loans, Bucks mused about how nice it would be to have a mortgage interest rate that began with a “3.” The way things are going, that time may not be far off for fixed-rates loans, as well.

Mortgage rates reached record lows this week, according to the weekly market survey from Freddie Mac. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell to 4.15 percent, with borrowers paying an average point of 0.7 percent. That rate is down from 4.32 percent last week.

It is “the lowest in over 50 years,” Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a news release. The survey’s previous low was 4.17 percent in November 2010.

-Mortgage Rates Hit 50-Year Low, NYT

Regardless of the economy, if you own a home and can refinance, you should consider it. In NY state, we have CEMA loans (CONSOLIDATION, EXTENSION & MODIFICATION AGREEMENT) which do not require new mortgage filing taxes, a hefty 0.8% of loan amount. Note this only applies if you refi with the original sender.

The Poor Are Soaking America

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By Downtown Josh Brown - August 19th, 2011, 9:30AM

Thank God someone is standing up against Warren Buffet and the legions of the poor that are looking to take over America

Post Market Whackage Morning Reads

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 19th, 2011, 8:00AM

Hey, I was out of the office all day yesterday — did I miss anything?

Meanwhile, here is what will catch you up with what’s going on:

• Stocks Fall Anew on Debt Worries and the Economy (NYT) see also Economy Sinks Markets (WSJ)
• Economic Myths: We Separate Fact From Fiction (Pro Publica)
• Crude Dives Toward $80 Amid Global Market Rout (WSJ) see also Gold Ends Above $1,800 (WSJ)
• In Crisis, Reminders of Disputes in Euro’s Founding (NYT)
• U.S. Stocks Sink as Treasury Yields Fall (Bloomberg) see also ‘R’ is for recession, not recovery (Market Watch)
This may have been the smartest thing I’ve read this week: Volatile Stocks Seen Leaving Lasting Scars on U.S. Fund Investors’ Psyche (Bloomberg)
January 2008: 5 Stages of Market Grief (TBP)
• The new firm employment puzzle (Fed of Atlanta) see also Connecting the Dots: Texas Employment Growth; a Dissenting Vote; and the Ugly Truth (With Reference to P.G. Wodehouse) (Fed Dallas)
So last century! — FINRA Details What Brokers Can and Can’t Do With Social Media (Financial Advisor)
Christopher Hitchens: Britons Have Been Violent and Cruel for Generations (Slate)

What are you reading?

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Where are we in this cycle?

All eyes still on European bank funding needs

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By Peter Boockvar - August 19th, 2011, 7:28AM

European bank funding concerns remain front and center and what banks need refinancing thru yr end and who’s ok are under the microscope. The iTRAXX euro financial 5 yr CDS is up 12 bps to a new high at 245 bps. US$ 3 mo LIBOR is at 30 bps for the 1st time since April. 3 mo Euribor/OIS spread is at the high of the week but its all due to a drop in OIS rather than a rise in Euribor rates. The euro 3 mo basis swap is wider by 3 bps to also the high of the week. Spanish and Italian bonds are quiet again thanks to ECB buying but what happens when they stop? Greek 2 yr note yields are spiking to near highs as Finland’s deal to get collateral from Greece in return for funds is causing more EU countries to say ‘me too’ which threatens getting their bailout deal done. While the possibility of a eurobond is still a ways off, EU economic commissioner Oli Rehn said they would draft legislation for it. It still though comes down to the decision of the Germans and whether they want to be the sugar daddy for the EU in order to save it in its current form. With gold at a another record high, the S&P 500 is now 15% below the March ’09 low in gold terms and lower by 71% from the Oct ’07 S&P 500 record high. I continue to make this analysis because gold is money, not a commodity.

Look Out Below, Global Version

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 19th, 2011, 6:19AM

click for updated futures

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Markets are under pressure again. European banks continue to be “repriced;” Asia appears to be adjusting to the idea of a global recession.

Europe’s overall health — financially, politically, economically — is very much in question.Markets on on the continent tumbled another 2.5%, with Germany down 3.5% of evidence that even its economy is slowing.

Crude oil = $80 !   No, this is NOT good for the economy as the eejits keep repeating — its a signal that demand for growth products are rapidly decelerating. Spot prices on Dr. Copper  (see this) look to be getting ready to roll over.

More shortly . . .

Corruption At The Top Leads To Lawlessness By The People

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By Washingtons Blog - August 19th, 2011, 3:00AM

Corruption At The Top Leads To Lawlessness By The People

Economist Noted 150 Years Ago That Corruption At the Top Leads to Lawlessness By The People

I’ve repeatedly noted that corruption at the top leads to lawlessness by the people.
William K. Black – Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri at Kansas City, and the former head S&L regulator – notes that conservative French economist Frédéric Bastiat said the same thing more than 150 years ago.

Specifically, Bastiat said that corruption and “plunder” by government officials causes lawlessness among the people (skip to the second half of the following interview):

Unfortunately, the lawlessness by those at the top will lead to lawlessness by the people. This will lead to the break down of the economy and the financial system … and society as a whole.

Ron Paul “Just Think Of All Those Troops Spending All That Money Back At Home!”

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Many economists have demonstrated that – contrary to commonly-accepted myth – war is actually bad for the economy.

Ron Paul gives yet another reason to bring the troops home:

Just think of all those troops spending all that money back at home!

While those claiming that war stimulates the economy and creates jobs might say that bringing a bunch of unemployed veterans home would hurt the economy, the truth is that government stimulus money spent in the private sector stimulates more than money spent on the military.

The Real Reason the SEC Has Been Shredding Documents For Decades

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By Washingtons Blog - August 19th, 2011, 1:00AM

The Real Reason the SEC Has Been Shredding Documents For Decades

SEC Attorney Reveals that Agency Has Shredded Documents for Decades to Cover Up Wall Street Fraud

What should we make of the new revelations by Securities and Exchange Commission attorney Darcy Flynn (background here, here and here) that the SEC has been shredding documents for decades?

As many commentators have noted, the SEC did this to cover up fraud on Wall Street.

The Entire Government Strategy Is To Cover Up Fraud

William K. Black – professor of economics and law, and the senior regulator during the S & L crisis – says that that the government’s entire strategy now – as during the S&L crisis – is to cover up how bad things are:

The entire strategy is to keep people from getting the facts.

Top Government Officials Created the Conditions In Which Fraud Would Flourish

I noted last year:

It is not only a matter of covering up fraud that has already happened. The government also created an environment which greatly encouraged fraud.

Here are just a few of many potential examples:

  • Business Week wrote on May 23, 2006:

“President George W. Bush has bestowed on his intelligence czar, John Negroponte, broad authority, in the name of national security, to excuse publicly traded companies from their usual accounting and securities-disclosure obligations.”

  • Tim Geithner was complicit in Lehman’s accounting fraud, (and see this), and pushed to pay AIG’s CDS counterparties at full value, and then to keep the deal secret. And as Robert Reich notes, Geithner was “very much in the center of the action” regarding the secret bail out of Bear Stearns without Congressional approval. William Black points out: “Mr. Geithner, as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York since October 2003, was one of those senior regulators who failed to take any effective regulatory action to prevent the crisis, but instead covered up its depth”
  • The former chief accountant for the SEC says that Bernanke and Paulson broke the law and should be prosecuted
  • The government knew about mortgage fraud a long time ago. For example, the FBI warned of an “epidemic” of mortgage fraud in 2004. However, the FBI, DOJ and other government agencies then stood down and did nothing. See this and this. For example, the Federal Reserve turned its cheek and allowed massive fraud, and the SEC has repeatedly ignored accounting fraud. Indeed, Alan Greenspan took the position that fraud could never happen
  • Bernanke might have broken the law by letting unemployment rise in order to keep inflation low
  • Paulson and Bernanke falsely stated that the big banks receiving Tarp money were healthy, when they were not
  • Of course, deregulation by Larry Summers, Robert Rubin, Phil Gramm and many other high-level politicians and regulators also helped to grease the skids for fraud

Economist James K. Galbraith wrote in the introduction to his father, John Kenneth Galbraith’s, definitive study of the Great Depression, The Great Crash, 1929:

The main relevance of The Great Crash, 1929 to the great crisis of 2008 is surely here. In both cases, the government knew what it should do. Both times, it declined to do it. In the summer of 1929 a few stern words from on high, a rise in the discount rate, a tough investigation into the pyramid schemes of the day, and the house of cards on Wall Street would have tumbled before its fall destroyed the whole economy. In 2004, the FBI warned publicly of “an epidemic of mortgage fraud.” But the government did nothing, and less than nothing, delivering instead low interest rates, deregulation and clear signals that laws would not be enforced. The signals were not subtle: on one occasion the director of the Office of Thrift Supervision came to a conference with copies of the Federal Register and a chainsaw. There followed every manner of scheme to fleece the unsuspecting ….

This was fraud, perpetrated in the first instance by the government on the population, and by the rich on the poor.

***

The government that permits this to happen is complicit in a vast crime.

In other words, the fraud started at the very top with Greenspan, Bush, Paulson, Negraponte, Bernanke, Geithner, Rubin, Summers and all of the rest of the boys.

As William Black told me today:

In criminology jargon: they created an intensely criminogenic environment. I have no knowledge whether the national security aspects played any role, but the anti-regulatory dogma was devastating.

(Here’s the definition for criminogenic.)

I noted last month:

Fraud caused the Great Depression and it has caused the current financial crisis. But fraud is not not being prosecuted, and so it will occur again and again, and prevent a sustainable economic recovery.

Numerous economists have been saying this for years. As I pointed out in March:

Nobel prize winning economist George Akerlof has demonstrated that failure to punish white collar criminals – and instead bailing them out- creates incentives for more economic crimes and further destruction of the economy in the future. Indeed, William Black notes that we’ve known of this dynamic for “hundreds of years”.

Now mainstream journalists are starting to catch on.

Market Watch senior columnist Brett Arends writes:

No one has been punished. Executives like Dick Fuld at Lehman Brothers and Angelo Mozilo at Countrywide, along with many others, cashed out hundreds of millions of dollars before the ship crashed into the rocks. Predatory lenders and crooked mortgage lenders walked away with millions in ill-gotten gains. But they aren’t in jail. They aren’t even under criminal prosecution. They got away scot-free. As a general rule, the worse you behaved from 2000 to 2008, the better you’ve been treated. And so the next crowd will do it again. Guaranteed.

Gretchen Morgenson and Louise Story point out in the New York Times that:

As the financial storm brewed in the summer of 2008 … Federal prosecutors officially adopted new guidelines about charging corporations with crimes — a softer approach that, longtime white-collar lawyers and former federal prosecutors say, helps explain the dearth of criminal cases despite a raft of inquiries into the financial crisis.

Though little noticed outside legal circles, the guidelines were welcomed by firms representing banks. The Justice Department’s directive, involving a process known as deferred prosecutions, signaled “an important step away from the more aggressive prosecutorial practices seen in some cases under their predecessors,” Sullivan & Cromwell, a prominent Wall Street law firm, told clients in a memo that September.

***

“If you do not punish crimes, there’s really no reason they won’t happen again,” said Mary Ramirez, a professor at Washburn University School of Law and a former assistant United States attorney. “I worry and so do a lot of economists that we have created no disincentives for committing fraud or white-collar crime, in particular in the financial space.”

(This appears to be true on both sides of the Atlantic.)

And Frank Rich reports in a much-discussed piece in the New Yorker:

What haunts the Obama administration is what still haunts the country: the stunning lack of accountability for the greed and misdeeds that brought America to its gravest financial crisis since the Great Depression. There has been no legal, moral, or financial reckoning for the most powerful wrongdoers. Nor have there been meaningful reforms that might prevent a repeat catastrophe. Time may heal most wounds, but not these. Chronic unemployment remains a constant, painful reminder of the havoc inflicted on the bust’s innocent victims. As the ghost of Hamlet’s father might have it, America will be stalked by its foul and unresolved crimes until they “are burnt and purged away.”

After the 1929 crash, and thanks in part to the legendary Ferdinand Pecora’s fierce thirties Senate hearings, America gained a Securities and Exchange Commission, the Public Utility Holding Company Act, and the Glass-Steagall Act to forestall a rerun. After the savings-and-loan debacle of the eighties, some 800 miscreants went to jail. But those who ran the central financial institutions of our fiasco escaped culpability (as did most of the institutions). As the indefatigable Matt Taibbi has tabulated, law enforcement on Obama’s watch rounded up 393,000 illegal immigrants last year and zero bankers. The Justice Department’s bally­hooed Operation Broken Trust has broken still more trust by chasing mainly low-echelon, one-off Madoff wannabes.

***

Those in executive suites at the top of that chain have long since fled the scene with the proceeds, while bleeding shareholders, investors, homeowners, and ­cashiered employees were left with the bills. The weak Dodd-Frank financial-reform law that rose from the ruins remains largely inoperative ….

I pointed out in January that fraud is Wall Street’s business model, which is being supported by the government:

Nobel prize-winning economist George Akerlof demonstrated that if big companies aren’t held responsible for their actions, the government ends up bailing them out. So failure to prosecute directly leads to a bailout.

Moreover, as I noted last month:

Fraud benefits the wealthy more than the poor, because the big banks and big companies have the inside knowledge and the resources to leverage fraud into profits. Joseph Stiglitz noted in September that giants like Goldman are using their size to manipulate the market. The giants (especially Goldman Sachs) have also used high-frequency program trading (representing up to 70% of all stock trades) and high proportions of other trades as well). This not only distorts the markets, but which also lets the program trading giants take a sneak peak at what the real traders are buying and selling, and then trade on the insider information. See this, this, this, this and this.

Similarly, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley together hold 80% of the country’s derivatives risk, and 96% of the exposure to credit derivatives. They use their dominance to manipulate the market.

Fraud disproportionally benefits the big players (and helps them to become big in the first place), increasing inequality and warping the market.
[And] Professor Black says that fraud is a large part of the mechanism through which bubbles are blown.

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Finally, failure to prosecute mortgage fraud is arguably worsening the housing crisis. See this and this.

The government has not only turned the other cheek, but aided and abetted the fraud.

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And this environment is ongoing today. See this, for example.

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Even when the government has prosecuted financial crime (because public outrage became too big to ignore), the government has settled for pennies on the dollar [as a way to quietly bail out the big banks].

Corruption At the Top Leads to Lawlessness By The People

Corruption at the top leads to lawlessness by the people.

Unfortunately, the lawlessness by those at the top will lead to lawlessness by the people. This will lead to the break down of the economy and the financial system … and society as a whole. 

Investors: Think For Yourselves

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By Barry Ritholtz - August 18th, 2011, 10:35PM

What is it about these four Bloomberg headlines that are imparting some sort of a lesson?

May 23, 2011: Biggs Buying as S&P 500 Profit Forecasts Rise Most in a Year

May 24, 2011Biggs Says Stock Bears Wrong Even as Economy Slows

Aug 3, 2011: Birinyi, Biggs Advise Holding Stocks After S&P 500’s Decline

Aug 18, 2011: Biggs Says S&P May Be Bottoming, Priced for 15% Profit Drop

Which of these buy calls should you follow? Might some of these calls be suffering from bias? And if you are always telling people to buy-buy-buy, can anyone really follow your advice?

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