Hat tip Business Insider

* Microsoft is toast because we’re moving to a post-PC era;

* HTML5, the new web standard that allows to make interactive web pages, is going to revolutionize the media and advertising industries;

* Social is “done”, it’s now a feature, don’t go do a social startup.

roger mcnamee elevation partners

Image: Screenshot
Here’s what we thought were the most interesting points and assertions from the speech (quotes are paraphrased):

* Microsoft’s share of internet-connected devices has gone from 95% to under 50% in 3 years;

* Windows no longer provides measurable ROI to enterprises, who will shift spending to other products and services; this is a huge opportunity;

* Google is a victim of its own success: its search has become polluted by SEOs. What shows that Google has failed is all those “non-search” services that really solve a search problem, like Match.com or Realtor.com. If you add them all up, they account for 50% of searches.

* HTML5 is going to change everything. “In HTML5, an ad is an app, a tweet is an app, everything is an app.” “It’s a blank sheet of paper, and creativity rules again.”

* For example, “my band is putting out a full HTML5 site. You can watch all of our shows on an iPhone, live.” It’s very cheap and it changes the game because they don’t have to pay anyone anything.

* In HTML5, you don’t need to have display ads: Amazon can have a section of its store as an ad. So if you’re reading a book review, you can buy the book right from the page.

* Because HTML5 can make sites rich and interactive, engagement on a site can go from seconds to minutes.

* So a site could say: we have 5 sponsors today, which one would you like, and the sponsor follows you around throughout your experience on the site. “The fact that you can create and satisfy demand in the same place is only true in infomercials today, but it will be true on the web.” This, in turn, is highly disruptive to TV advertising.

* “The iPad is the most important device since the IBM PC.”

* “Apple will sell a hundred million internet-connected devices this year. That’s two thirds of the PC market.” If you add the other non-PC internet devices, that’s more valuable than the PC market.

* The iPad is the training wheels for HTML5. iPad apps show us what we need to beat in terms of creating a better experience on HTML5.

* Apple is an unstoppable freight train. In terms of tablets, it has no competitors and will probably end up with iPod-like marketshare. “It’s like IBM in the 60s; I can’t predict what that means; you need to find a way to play with it, but you also need to find a way to play over it” with HTML5.

* The fact that most people now have more than one device means the cloud is vital, because you want to have all your stuff on all your devices. It also means the old PC paradigm is dead, because the old PC paradigm means everything stored on one device, instead of everything in the cloud synced to many devices.

* In terms of keeping your stuff in the cloud, “Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Apple have completely failed to get the mobile experience right.” (We’ll let McNamee stand by that statement.)

* “Facebook has decided that they’re Twitter on steroids”.

* Currently Facebook Connect is free; eventually they’ll charge for it because it’s access to their social graph which publishers need, and that’s how they’l make money.

* Don’t try to be “social”: the big social platforms are created. You can’t create a social company, it’s just a checkbox. “The last 500 social companies funded by the VC community are all worthless. I’m serious.”

* But this creates an opportunity: while everyone is focused on social distribution, there’s a huge opportunity to get content right with HTML5. “Let’s create a new product, the way music videos were a new product.”

* Apple makes more gross margin per iPhone than most Android phones make in gross revenue, McNamee says.

* “Television is the last protected media business,” but it’s going to get disrupted. For one, once televisions are computers, analytics of who watches will get more accurate than Nielsen panels. “Everyone knows that if we go to actual measurement, ad rates will collapse because the numbers aren’t as good as Nielsen makes them look.”

* McNamee also had a few words about the economy: “we’re about 40% of the way of deleveraging the global economy, but we’re only 10% of the way of deleveraging the US consumer…I don’t care what your politics are, removing government demand from the economy when it’s struggling is ridiculous.” And to prop things up, the Fed is printing money and inflating bubbles, “but for us, that’s great!”: capital is very cheap; consumers are acting like the party’s on, so there’s lots of opporutnities.

* McNamee says he does “full contact investing”: he proves the concepts of what he invests in by trying them out with his band. So he knows HTML5 is going to work because it works for his band. Then he added, to audience laughter: “You’re going to say it’s a dipshit little band, yeah, it is, but we like it and our fans like it” and it works.

Category: Technology, Video

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “Roger McNamee: Everything is changing”

  1. Hans Robert says:

    Some good points there, but a lot of crap too.

  2. daemon23 says:

    He’s mostly bang on on social, but he doesn’t understand the Open Source movement or Google’s relationship to it, and he really doesn’t understand HTML5.

  3. econimonium says:

    I agree he doesn’t understand HTML5 at all. Neither does he really understand what is happening with Apple, as far as I’m concerned. This was said of them in the 80s and we know what happened there.

    Hardware is always a dead end. Keep repeating this until it sinks in. Software is what makes the day, and if you don’t treat developers right, or you close your system and start dictating the rules, developers won’t develop on your systems if there is one with no rules. Secondly, I travel for my job in tech…A LOT. I pretty much don’t see any iPads anywhere. Isn’t that funny? I mean, it’s really noticeable. I look for it. Which makes me honestly wonder how many of them are paperweights. I also teach at the college level. I don’t see many of them there either. So where are they? What are they being used for? I see laptops everywhere, but hardly any iPads. (And the ones I see have their owners tilting them everywhere to see. I notice that too)

    So I guess I saying…yawn. Heard it all before, wasn’t the Segway going to “revolutionize travel! the car is dead! cities will be designed around these!” Whatever. There are two things of interest here:
    Google is now a complete failure for searching because of the SEO. So watch to see what happens next.
    Social Media is a feature not software or SaaS any more. That is true.
    I will add, Twitter is dead but doesn’t know it. Look at the actual stats to find out who is tweeting and who is paying attention. The answer is smaller than you think.

  4. vader says:

    Taking a quick look at HTML5, it is still in development not yet a finished product. There is a problem with proprietary vs open source apps and what browsers will support what. Those of us around in the browser wars of the late 1990s remember the chaos of a browser incompatibility.

    Apple has always been about control of its products and delivers a premium product at a premium price. Many folks do not want to pay that premium which limits Apples appeal.

    I also question his view that capital is cheap and consumers despite the threat of UE and being UE are eager to spend. The two seem compatible to me. In his protected economic class a lot of folks may not be affected.

  5. blueoysterjoe says:

    I don’t buy everything this guy is selling, but I 100% agree about Social.

    Facebook wasn’t the killer app. Seeing your old high school friends grow fat was the killer app. And pretty much anyone can provide that kind of service. And everyone should.

    I am not completely sold that Apple is going to eat everyone’s lunch. I love my iPhone, but Apple still feels boutique to me. Granted, there’s a lot of money available for boutique products, but my parents are on Facebook and they aren’t on Apple, and I think that is notable.

    Also, as ghoulish as it sounds, I wonder if Apple is still too beholden to the personal genius of its founder.

    Still, I’m happy to be wrong. I want great products that give me what I want. If Apple can provide it, I’m sold.

  6. BobCarver says:

    What an Apple fanboy he is! Android has 33% marketshare to Apple’s 25% for smartphones and 30% global marketshare for tablets. Looks like Apple is yesterday’s news.

  7. daemon23 says:

    The “Google is a failure due to SEO” idea is a little off the mark from my perspective. Google’s algorithmic search is being gamed pretty successfully, but Google Plus has some bits that suggest Google is aware of that and is trying to leverage social networking to improve its behavior. Saying Google is a failure seems premature.

    (Related and worth reading: http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2011/01/curation_is_the.html )

  8. RecencyEffect says:

    So much wrong in this. Google has battled SEO since the company has formed, this is nothing new and google still employs really smart people so to say that battle is lost and SEO has won is pretty far fetched.

    As to all the HTML5 points, HTML5 doesn’t allow much that we can’t already do. The only difference is that most of these systems are proprietary currently, and expensive. HTML5 may democratise this sort of functionality, but in terms of removing limits on creativity – that’s rubbish. There are beautiful apps all over the web and moving from their current (often flash based) platform to HTML5 just exposes them to implementation differences between browsers rather than offering a killer feature that just can’t be done currently.

    People who say “HTML5 will change everything” probably thought that by 2002 we would be buying pets online as well. HTML5 codifies and attempts to standardise things which we currently do in a variety of ways but it isn’t a silver bullet for anything, certainly not the way it is described here.