Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Data reflect most recently available as of 6/30/11.
Source: JP Morgan funds
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
The best way to keep money in perspective is to have some. —Louis Rukeyser
"It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine" say the French as consumer confidence in May rose to the highest since Nov '10 as they welcome and get excited about new Pres Hollande. Also, the French 10 yr bond yield touched the lowest on record this morning. June consumer confidence in Germany held at 5.7, just .2 pts off the highest since Mar '11. To the euro bond debate which is now taking on greater rhetoric with those with high bond yields wanting them and those with low ones saying no way, ECB member...
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August 30th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
[...] The S&P 500 at inflection points. (Big Picture) [...]
August 30th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
After 9-11 unwind and watch from the sidelines.
August 30th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
[...] JP Morgan funds via The Big Picture Share this:TwitterFacebookLike this:LikeBe the first to like this [...]
August 30th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Its just a guess here, but BR
August 30th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
is bearish here.
August 30th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
If I were simply looking at patterns in the chart, I’d say we’re at about the 2/3 point of this rally, with about another year to 18 months to go. Both the previous rallies had two to three hesitation points before the final push. This rally appears to have bad two and is about to start its last one.
But that’s just from looking at the chart and nothing else.
August 30th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Sorry about that, but my Persian cat stepped on my keyboard. Not that there’s anything wrong with that (-;
August 30th, 2011 at 1:20 pm
So the fact that P/E has consistently dropped during these large bounces doesn’t send out any value signs here? I’m pretty bearish, but while Main St seems to be sucking wind Wall St seems to be able to squeeze out more efficiency / reduce costs / buy back stock just fine and keep E up while P has been dropping.
August 30th, 2011 at 2:10 pm
Looks like still in a broad flat ABCDE (now in D up) since March 2000. Final E down allows for new all time highs in the 2014-2016 window
August 30th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
OT- a different kind of inflection point.
“I am not a robot. I am a unicorn.”
http://boingboing.net/2011/08/29/two-ai-chatbots-attempt-to-have-a-conversation-with-each-other.html
August 30th, 2011 at 3:26 pm
well.. the last two upswings lasted 4 and 5 years … this one is two years.. so far
so is this it, or do we have another 2-3 years of upswing to go?
August 30th, 2011 at 3:33 pm
never overestimate the intelligence of the common stocktard
August 30th, 2011 at 3:50 pm
Arequipa01 , that was good! (I like the comment that asks “Why are they so mean?” Maybe these are YahooBots.)
…
The pain in Spain falls mainly on the plain.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/eurozone-retail-sales-drop-4th-straight.html
August 30th, 2011 at 5:47 pm
[...] was better 30 years ago, but it didn’t have voice synthesizers (from BoingBoing via Arequipa01 at Barry Ritholtz). Share this:TwitterDiggFacebookRedditPrintEmailMoreStumbleUponLike this:LikeBe [...]
August 30th, 2011 at 6:10 pm
If you wait until the stars are aligned the ‘right’ way, you’ll be the last person to the party an the punch will be gone.
August 30th, 2011 at 9:00 pm
Well, gee –
It looks like we have another 5% – 10% to go.
Back up the truck!
.
August 30th, 2011 at 10:33 pm
Data as of June 30/11.
Update – we crashed right through that support line without looking back.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:08 am
this chart, like most, is a rorschach test…
everyone sees what they want to see… bears see a reson to sell, bulls see a reason to buy
the chart doesn’t tell anything about the current market, because the past is history, and there is no guarantee that today’s market will trade like yesterday’s market…the chart while interesting offers no trading value…it is entertaining however to listen to various people state their case…
August 31st, 2011 at 1:51 am
Dwindling disposable income, maxed credit cards, no equity to borrow against, 18% real unemployment and 1.75% of GDP was just forcibly cut in the name of “debt reduction”, that the middle class doesn’t give two spits about.
Say hello to my little Minski moment.
Any move up is a Pavlovian pre-QE 3 anticipation. however -
End results of QE2 = higher gas, grains, cotton and material costs, no jobs.
Even Bernanke is all but ready to scream “REVENUES” and “STIMULUS” at this point, his tactful suggestions so far have gone ignored, just as his J-hole comments will be ignored yet again, because some of the freshman in the house want to try experimenting with the Hoover strategy and see of it works this time.
Where 90% of all Americans no longer have any money in the market, a wise politician looking to win in 2012 will know what takes priority and what doesn’t with the average Joe voter.
His rivals will attempt to undermine those efforts, as they have for two years now, in attempt to make him a one term president.
All the while, we suffer the consequences.
August 31st, 2011 at 7:26 am
Frilton Miedman “one term BHO POTUS” .. don’t get me wrong I’m on team Labor .. but I’m saying Labor is not feeling POTUS has the game plan to win against Capital (if anyone can – till they win the game – and redistribute on their terms) .. Face It – there are not enough jobs for Labor world round
.. the bottom 1/5 feed into the system via stipends which infuriate some .. and since Capital feeds the supply chain it has a hook into the bottom 1/5th (actually some of them love the status quo) .. so I wonder if folks understand “be careful what you ask for” … thing is – this “survival of the fittest” system with laws on their side always works for Lobby’g LawMakers
another Face It – the rent is to high because of this imbalance – and now I have to find that NewsHour piece on birth rates and cross link this
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/july-dec11/brazil_08-30.html
August 31st, 2011 at 8:11 am
“everyone sees what they want to see… bears see a reson to sell, bulls see a reason to buy”
coming from the person that calls themself Macrotrader
that’s funny stuff
August 31st, 2011 at 8:58 am
“one term BHO POTUS”
The difficulty there is that somebody has to beat him; the opposing team seems to be going for fringe favorites who won’t have a lot of national appeal. They’re good entertainment, but that only goes so far once election day draws near.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:36 am
I can’t help but think of this and wonder if we’re really in the late stages of a secular bear market that began in 2000:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/aftermath-of-secular-bear-markets/
August 31st, 2011 at 1:09 pm
If there’s a Wall of Worry on the way up, I’d call this the Chute of Chutzpah.