Slap your best-guess multiple (trend growth?, slow growth?, no growth? contraction?) on 2012 EPS estimates and decide for yourself where fair value is for the S&P. Of course, beware Farrell’s Rule #9. Set an alert to revisit this post one year hence.
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Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Dollar depreciation leads to higher inflation and ultimately forces foreign creditors to question their rationale and indeed their sanity for continuing purchases of U.S. Treasuries." -Bill Gross
Signs continue that European markets are getting tired. The Spanish and Italian stock markets, big beneficiaries of the sharp decline in their bond yields over the past few months are falling to the lowest since Feb 1. The European bank index is at a 1 1/2 week low after earnings reports from Commerzbank and Credit Ag (RBS bouncing although reporting weaker than expected earnings) were disappointing. This market action is in spite of the German IFO business confidence figure which rose to a 7 month high coming in a touch above expectations and Italian consumer confidence which bounced more than...
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August 17th, 2011 at 11:53 am
i will bet even money right now the eventually reported will fall outside the high and the low forecast?
but these include non-operating profits—incl capital gains and losses
if financials actually took the losses
this could be a third less than the mean or worse
August 17th, 2011 at 11:57 am
and except for one outlier the range is 102 to 108
what complete total tools and losers
i will bet against whatever range for end 2012 they are published on whatever stock
forecasts dont hurt— but everyone massively underestimates the vol and risk
August 17th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
year and half stock prices is BS for retail customers
or folks who should and may soon be retail
August 17th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Love that 40%+ S&P appreciation bet from a bank that continually tries to bet on the US market and has so far made the Japanese banks look as if they are great investors.
And there’s a kink in the curve [1600 = 5.7, 1650 =3.80 1700 = 6.70 1750=3.80] right now, so maybe they’re even betting that way. Either that, or someone believes them.
Time to sell some 1700s and buy some 1650s.
August 17th, 2011 at 1:52 pm
The main thing that any idiot with a business or economics degree ought to be able to do is learn that economic predictions are a waste of time. EPS can be manipulated, forecasts are always revised, and there are too many variables that are gyrating wildly to be able to make a solid prediction for the future.
September 17th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
[...] last six weeks that those forecasts were too optimistic and have been chopped across the board. I then posted here about one month ago when the first batch of 2012 S&P earnings estimates were [...]