Slap your best-guess multiple (trend growth?, slow growth?, no growth? contraction?) on 2012 EPS estimates and decide for yourself where fair value is for the S&P.  Of course, beware Farrell’s Rule #9.  Set an alert to revisit this post one year hence.


Category: Analysts, Cycles, Data Analysis, Earnings, Economy, Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

6 Responses to “The 2012 Crystal Ball”

  1. AHodge says:

    i will bet even money right now the eventually reported will fall outside the high and the low forecast?
    but these include non-operating profits—incl capital gains and losses
    if financials actually took the losses
    this could be a third less than the mean or worse

  2. AHodge says:

    and except for one outlier the range is 102 to 108
    what complete total tools and losers
    i will bet against whatever range for end 2012 they are published on whatever stock
    forecasts dont hurt— but everyone massively underestimates the vol and risk

  3. AHodge says:

    year and half stock prices is BS for retail customers
    or folks who should and may soon be retail

  4. klhoughton says:

    Love that 40%+ S&P appreciation bet from a bank that continually tries to bet on the US market and has so far made the Japanese banks look as if they are great investors.

    And there’s a kink in the curve [1600 = 5.7, 1650 =3.80 1700 = 6.70 1750=3.80] right now, so maybe they’re even betting that way. Either that, or someone believes them.

    Time to sell some 1700s and buy some 1650s.

  5. ashpelham2 says:

    The main thing that any idiot with a business or economics degree ought to be able to do is learn that economic predictions are a waste of time. EPS can be manipulated, forecasts are always revised, and there are too many variables that are gyrating wildly to be able to make a solid prediction for the future.

  6. [...] last six weeks that those forecasts were too optimistic and have been chopped across the board. I then posted here about one month ago when the first batch of 2012 S&P earnings estimates were [...]