The Sept Conference Board Consumer Confidence # was 45.4, a touch below expectations of 46 and little changed with Aug when it fell to 45.2 from 59.2, the weakest since Apr ’09. The components were mixed as the Present Situation fell almost 2 pts to 32.5 but Expectations were up by 1.6 pts to 54 (still down from 74.9 in July). The answers to the labor market questions were mixed too as those that said jobs were Plentiful rose to a 4 month high but those that said jobs were Hard to Get rose to the highest since 1983. Those that said Business Conditions were good fell to the lowest since Jan. Those that plan to buy a home within 6 mo’s rose to 4.9 from 4.0 and compares with the 6 month avg of 4.8. Those that plan on buying an auto fell to 11.4 from 13, a 6 month low. One year inflation expectations fell to 5.7% from 5.9%, the lowest since Feb but still remains well above the 20 yr average of 4.7%. Bottom line, consumer confidence was obviously impacted by global events over the past few months but with gasoline prices at the lowest since March, inflation expectations have started to recede a bit. With respect to consumer spending, as is mostly the case, how consumers feel as seen in the data doesn’t necessarily correlate with how they act

Category: MacroNotes, Psychology

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