Gary Shilling Says U.S. Faces Deflation
Bloomberg, September 28, 2011

Category: Economy, Inflation, Video

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5 Responses to “Gary Shilling Says U.S. Faces Deflation”

  1. theexpertisin says:

    I’m predicting between one and a hundred hurricanes will occur in 2012. Call me an expert.

    Being snide aside, Shilling is a a fellow that should be minded. His view on deflation is overlooked by the fog of inflation anticipated by many… their peril.

  2. Greg0658 says:

    I think move’g back into old world family units will be cool again (generations living together)
    .. and dorm room style living arraignments (like the illegal foreign temp workers)

  3. toba says:

    The call for deflation is laughed out of the room everywhere…even the interviewer in this video seemed incredulous. Even gold bugs who hate the Fed with a passion still believe in its godlike powers to inflate at will. Shilling is call refreshing and dead on…the overhang of debt and marking down of assets is going to overpower the global central banks.

  4. JohnnyVee says:

    “the overhang of debt and marking down of assets is going to overpower the global central banks.” and, if I can add, demographics of an aging population. How does a senior citizen really consumer (No demand)?

  5. Shilling is qualitatively right.

    The following is the quantitative pathway. Even for gold and silver hoarders … it will be evident within 8-9 trading days that deflation will have a terrible effect on all assets and 100′s of billions of Euro debt undergoes default or expected default.

    Saturation Macroeconomics : A Patterned Science Equivalent to Physics: The 11 August 2011 CAC DAX Wilshire’s OCTOBER 2011 Fractal Crash Sequence
    Oct 2, 2011

    Saturation Macroeconomics : A Patterned Science Equivalent to Physics

    The 11 August 2011 CAC DAX Wilshire’s OCTOBER 2011 Fractal Crash Sequence

    11 August 2011 :: 7/16-17/14/2 of 10-11 days :: x/2-2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x

    Saturation macroeconomics would seem to qualitatively well describe the world’s current macroeconomic state of affairs.

    Reduce the macroeconomy to its three principle elements:
    debt, money, and other assets. (Debt and money are assets until default or the Sovereign state is kaput).

    Al three have the quality of valuation changes over time relative to each other and subclasses of debt, money(currency), and assets.

    Business cycles are well known where too much debt is created and too great number of assets are produced and thereafter the system self-corrects with unemployment and debt default on the collateral of overproduced and overvalued assets as dependent variables.

    Is there a time denominated patterned mathematical relationship between the elements of macroeconomy – a pattern with sufficient regularity to ascribe to the macroeconomic system the properties of a science?

    in the Final Update of the Economic Fractalist, a challenge was self-made to identify the peak saturation valuation area and the expected nonlinearity of the macroeconomic system.

    The simple mathematical operating laws of asset valuation growth and decay of the Macroeconomic system were described in a single paragraph on the 2005 Main Page of the Economic Fractalist.

    The simple operational self organization law of the Macroeconomic System is a quantum time based ordered fractal progression of growth and decay of its asset valuations :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x with the the first 3 fractals representing growth with maximum valuation buying trading saturation areas and the 4th fractal representing decay to a maximum selling devaluation trading saturation area.

    The 11 October 2007 Wilshire was prospectively identified as a reflexic 20/5040 day :: x/2.5x/2x fractal series with the 40th day 7 October 2007.

    The 6 May 2010 Flash Crash was within the 2x-2.5x terminal portion of a second 221 day growth fractal of a 6 March 2009 88/221 day series which ended with a 6/15/12/10 day :: x/2.5x/2x/1.5x series.

    And now to end a 1982 Wilshire 34/85 of 85 quarter series , the DAX and CAC have completed a 11 August 7/17/14 :: x/2.5x/2x growth series with a nonlinear lower low gap between day 16 and 17 of the second fractal.

    Could the 1982 34/85 fractal global collapse be contained in an 11 August DAX/CAC :: 7/17/14/2 of 10-11 day x/2.5x/2x/1.5-1.6x fractal?

    (For the Wilshire after an initiating fractal series of 3 days from 9 to 11 August, an 11 August 2011 fractal of 7/16/14/2 of 10 to 11 day fractal.)

    What is the probability that these repetitive fractal patterns are occurring by chance and chance alone? Near to or simply Zero.

    The Macroeconomic system of money, debt and assets represents a self organizing system with periodicity, patterns, and order equivalent to physics.