There is a contagion among those forward looking indicators that we only see a business cycle recession, says Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI
Fri. Sept. 30 2011 | 6:25 AM[05:45]
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Money is power, & you ought to be reasonably ambitious to have it." —Russell H. Conwell, Temple Univ, 1877
"It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine" say the French as consumer confidence in May rose to the highest since Nov '10 as they welcome and get excited about new Pres Hollande. Also, the French 10 yr bond yield touched the lowest on record this morning. June consumer confidence in Germany held at 5.7, just .2 pts off the highest since Mar '11. To the euro bond debate which is now taking on greater rhetoric with those with high bond yields wanting them and those with low ones saying no way, ECB member...
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September 30th, 2011 at 11:15 am
Two words for ECRI.
Meredith Whitney with a side serving of Peter Schiff.
September 30th, 2011 at 12:23 pm
These CNBC hosts only want to hear cheerleading. ECRI has a damn good track record. Schiff and Whitney are attention seekers…let’s not even compare them.
September 30th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
New recession unavoidable:
http://alphahunt.wordpress.com/2011/09/30/ecri-new-recession-unavoidable/
September 30th, 2011 at 7:26 pm
This is the first time in 2011 ECRI & my TRENDLines Recession Indicator are in divergence. Frankly, I am bewildered by their interpretation of long-term indicator data. I do agree 2012Q2 will be soft, but medium term indicators don’t project a contraction.
After adding in this week’s economic releases, the TRI gauges Q3 & Q4 GDP both @ 2.0%, followed by a dip to o.8% in April 2012 … en route to a business cycle high of 3.9% in 2014Q4.
Both metrics have incredible records. On Oct 27th BEA announces Q3 and we’ll find out who blew this call…
TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm
September 30th, 2011 at 9:54 pm
If this prediction materializes, will the unemployment reach depression levels and beyond? See chart from Shadow Government Stat’s:
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts