Succinct summation of week’s events (09/16/11)

By Peter Boockvar - September 16th, 2011, 4:00PM

Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) ECB gets help from other central banks in relieving US$ funding stress for European banks until year end

2) Euro basis swap, 3 mo Euribor/OIS spread both narrower on the week and most European bank stocks higher

3) Barely a positive, Sept UoM confidence up a touch from near 31 year lows solely led by Current Conditions

4) The average 30 yr mortgage rate falls another 6 bps to a new low of 4.17% and refi apps rise 6% and purchase apps by 7%

5) Aug IP unexpectedly rises .2% as auto production rises solidly for 2nd straight month as things normalize post Japan disaster

6) India hikes rates again to cool inflation that is damaging their economy

Negatives:

1) EU continues its walk thru Disneyland thinking that the current Greek bailout will work but behind the scenes I have to believe that steps are being taken to prepare for reality (Germans are certainly preparing)

2) Aug US Retail Sales light and July revised down

3) Initial Jobless Claims rise to 428k, the most since late June

4) NY and Philly mfr’g surveys point to continued softness

5) CPI rises 3.8% y/o/y, the most since Sept ’08 and the core rate reaches 2.0%, one year inflation expectations rise to 3 month high in UoM data

6) Economic outlook in UoM falls to lowest since 1980

7) India hikes rates to cool inflation, economic activity feeling the impact

PERMALINK
Category: Markets.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

5 Responses to “Succinct summation of week’s events (09/16/11)”

theexpertisin Says:
September 16th, 2011 at 6:33 pm
Anyone predicting outcomes short of continued recession?
Anyone pretending the White House guard is ready with solutions?
Why is downwardly revised ecoonomic data continually described by many as “unexpected’?
Petey Wheatstraw Says:
September 16th, 2011 at 10:21 pm
“(Germans are certainly preparing)”

The Germans might be doing a little economic strategizing, but they aren’t really preparing until they start building tanks (again).
mathman Says:
September 17th, 2011 at 8:15 am
Until we deal with the way we’re living (energy-wise) all other economic, social and political problems will only become worse (and we probably won’t deal with this until it’s far too late to do anything about it):

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/09/15/318662/can-we-handle-nature%e2%80%99s-temporary-new-norm/#more-318662
Greg0658 Says:
September 17th, 2011 at 9:25 am
Petey – I thought we were the police force for the world .. stop suggesting giving our jobs away, dangit
Freddy Hutter - TrendLines Research Says:
September 17th, 2011 at 6:34 pm
Adding in this week’s economic releases, the Trendlines Recession Indicator gauges Q3 GDP @ 2.3%. Leading indicators infer a 1.4% GDP trough in May 2012 … en route to a business cycle crest of 3.8% in 2014Q4.

TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm