I am not particularly bullish these days — 50/50 stocks versus cash/bonds — and while we certainly could see a bounce up towards the 1250 level on the SPX, I am not sanguine about the next 2Qs of market performance.

That said, the chart below may be a very short term, bullish indicator. As we have seen in the past, TBP traffic spikes are often accompany a substantial increase in nervousness. That can set the table for a decent bounce, but as the dates below confirm, it is typically short term in nature. More solid bottoms (i.e., 2 years versus 2 months) were more likely to be accompanied by complacency, not interest.


via Site Meter


Blog Traffic Reading: Complacent! (April 30th, 2009)
Blog Traffic as a Contrary Market Indicator (February 4th, 2008)
Traffic Indicates . . . (June 21st, 2008)
Traffic Peaked Again Near Short Term Bottom (July 18th, 2008)
Crazy Fannie/Freddie Traffic Spike! (September 8th, 2008)

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology, Weblogs

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “Blog Traffic Goes (Short Term) Bullish in August”

  1. nofoulsontheplayground says:

    In the past bounces like this have typically tagged the monthly 20-EMA before reversing. That’s in the neighborhood of that 1260 SPX number your mentioned. The bounce typically takes several weeks prior to reversing.

  2. royrogers says:

    is it also possible that the increase in market volatility causes the herd, like myself to
    check in to TBP more often ??

    BR: Precisely!

  3. machinehead says:

    Yep, this stuff works. On a certain permabear blog, its record traffic was logged on the exact date of the March 2003 low.

    Similarly, during the worst of the market turmoil a couple of weeks ago, a skeptical site whose moniker begins with ‘z’ blew out their server several times.

    Site traffic counts are a close functional equivalent of bearish sentiment surveys and the VIX.

  4. [...] Finance blog traffic as a contrarian indicator.  (Big Picture) [...]

  5. Julia Chestnut says:

    But couldn’t becoming King of All Media have created a certain amount of signal noise? You probably have expanded your base a good deal past the merely financially nervous.

    BR: peak page views were October 08

  6. stonedwino says:

    BR, that’s insane…you had almost 2.2 million visitors in August? Kudos…it’s all about the content baby. Keep up the good work. I sure as hell enjoy my daily visits. Always informative & entertaining.

  7. john05 says:

    Folks just wanted to make sure they were paying market for their weed.

  8. Bentrider-MI says:

    Remember, in August – the last month of summer here in a relatively unknown vacation paradise – I simply check you email summary and the same on the other blogs I follow, including Daily Kos, and then either go out to ride my recumbent on one of 13,000 miles of trails (the most in the nation) or if it is after I get back I do it and go to bed. So the logging into blogs, which these statistics are based on, may not be as strong a indication of the sentiment of investors.

    Similarly, I never read too much into the volatility of the markets in August – it’s the biggest vacation month and the volume is usually low, especially if we have a way to differentiate between human and computer trades. As an investor who believes in buying quality dividend paying stocks and never selling into a panicked market, instead investing for the long term I have always done very well. Now I’m moving a larger portion of my money into mutual funds since they use computer high speed trading that I cannot match. I wish the SEC would ban computer trading.