Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
By Barry Ritholtz - October 25th, 2011, 11:30AM
The latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released today, covering the period through through August 2011.
Modest improvement was seen from July to August 2011, with gains of +0.2% for the 10- and 20-City Composites. Year over year, however, saw falling prices of -3.5% and -3.8% versus August 2010, respectively.
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Click to enlarge charts:
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Both 10- and 20-City indices are back to their mid-2003 levels
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Source:
Annual Rates of Change Continue to Improve
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Indices, Press Release, October 25, 2011
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October 25th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
IMHO the pivotal question is whether home prices have “bottomed” or whether there is more “downside.”
For those interested, I summarized the MacroMarkets September 2011 Home Price Expectations Survey, which includes 100+ forecasters’ predictions about the CS indices for the next few years, at my blog post here:
http://economicgreenfield.blogspot.com/2011/09/macromarkets-september-2011-home-price.html
October 25th, 2011 at 2:46 pm
That’s six straight months of month-on-month increases.
October 25th, 2011 at 3:18 pm
If Case-Shiller was a stock, would you buy or sell it if the only criteria you could use was the chart?
PS- I live in the midwest where we never experienced the crazy housing market. According to the second chart, if I’m understanding it correctly, my house which was purchased in the 1990s should have tripled in value at the peak and still be worth twice as much today. Not even close, and I’m in an upper-income area.
October 25th, 2011 at 4:19 pm
I still want to see what happens (if/and) when the fed has to raise rates. For some reason, I don’t think that wages will keep place with inflation and increased cost of financing will drive down prices which are already inflated by abnormally low rates. Assuming that there is no material change in the current rate of real wage (non) growth, then this is a blip and we can at most expect a “sideways” market for a while. This is a good market to find a house that you would like to “die”in but if you’re looking for an investment or preservation of capital I’d look else where. This reminds me of the NE condo market circa 1991……
October 25th, 2011 at 7:53 pm
I can’t wait for the NAR spin on this, which will presumably be along the lines of:
“After the bottom was made in early 2011, house prices have now risen for six straight months in a row” Yawn..