In response to a question about the recent modest data improvement, Lakshman Achuthan sent this video from 2008 (comments are not his, but one of his readers):

The ECRI made it’s last recession call in March 2008,when the S&P was somewhere around 1300.

The following interview occurred on 4/2/08 after the market shot up and some thought the economy was showing signs of recovery. The market made it up to 1426 by 5/20 before it fell and then kept falling to 1251 PRE-LEHMAN and continued down to the 666 3/9/09 Low. As he notes a similar situation happened following their recession call in 2001. I’m not looking back at those numbers but we know the market didn’t bottom until late 2002 with a final retest on 3/10/2003 at S&P 800.

I don’t think there’s enough data to make a short term market prediction following an ECRI recession call. What I am very confident of is their recession calls have all been correct and the recession will lead to a new bear market and given all the complicating factors like Europe causing wild gyration in the market I’m content with what I’m confident of which is we will be in recession and will be in a bear and that should start playing out between now and the next few months. Since I don’t know when we’ll turn down into a bear, it could be tomorrow or a couple of months from now, I want to be out of the way.

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A look ahead of todays trading, with Lakshman Acuthan, Economic Cycle Research and David Joy, Riversource Investments

Date: 4/2/08

Category: Economy, Video

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “Deja Vu? Acuthan of ECRI on 4/2/08 when stocks were shooting up after recession call”

  1. susanj says:

    Except for the comments about Bear Stearns this interview could have happened today.

  2. Nuggz says:

    “What I am very confident of is their recession calls have all been correct and the recession will lead to a new bear market and given all the complicating factors like Europe causing wild gyration in the market I’m content with what I’m confident of which is we will be in recession and will be in a bear and that should start playing out between now and the next few months. Since I don’t know when we’ll turn down into a bear, it could be tomorrow or a couple of months from now, I want to be out of the way.”

    Yes…indeed.

    Did you know that the sky is blue?

  3. klhoughton says:

    1300 to 666. Basically a 50% drop. Good thing no one ever puts money they cannot afford to lose–such as, say, their pension fund–into the stock market.

  4. kamyarhazaveh says:

    in that case, what we have seen in October would be the mother of all bear market rallies in terms of intensity.